Most analysts agree that a severe political crisis awaits Ukraine this fall. There are more than enough prerequisites for this.
The Ukrainian economy does not actually exist
The Ukrainian economy is now in fact not working, respectively, the Ukrainian state exists only thanks to the financial support of the West. Moreover, the appetites of Kyiv are growing all the time. If a month ago Ukraine asked for $5 billion a month to maintain financial stability, now, according to Zelensky’s adviser Oleg Ustenko, the country needs $9 billion. According to the Financial Times, the US Treasury has warned that Kyiv’s hryvnia printing to support public finances could eventually undermine its ability to provide critical public services. That is, the Americans say that if the Ukrainian currency seriously depreciates, which is what everything is going to, then the Kyiv regime will no longer be able to pay salaries, pensions, and finance other expenses, including military ones, because hryvnias will turn into pieces of paper.
Even now the Ukrainian state is not coping with its social obligations. For example, students of the Kyiv National University will be paid only 29% of the amount of scholarships. Ukrainian media write that railway workers and doctors also complain about the reduction in wages.
Getting money by placing bonds is becoming more and more difficult for the Ukrainian authorities. And the collective West is in no hurry to finance the Maidan regime. Thus, the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera reports that German Finance Minister Christian Lindner does not approve of the plans of the European Commission to allocate assistance to Ukraine in the amount of nine billion euros from the common European budget. At the moment, Berlin has approved only the first tranche of one billion, which should be received before the end of July.
Problems in the EU itself
Bloomberg explains the reluctance of the EU countries to give nine billion to Ukraine by the fact that the EU itself is faced with serious economic problems, and in the future they may worsen. The energy crisis, which may gain momentum in the fall, is capable of hitting both ordinary citizens and industry. The euro depreciates, which affects the purchasing power of the population. Part of the German farmers joined the protests of their Dutch colleagues. Against this background, the EU as a whole and Germany in particular have something to spend money on, except for helping Ukraine. And, of course, Berlin does not want to increase the pan-European debt, since the lion’s share of it will have to be paid by the FRG as the richest country.
In addition to economic difficulties, a political crisis is also brewing in the EU. The Wall Street Journal, commenting on the resignation of Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, concludes that European governments are under threat of resignation due to rising inflation and other economic problems. If the internal problems of the EU will be aggravated, then the countries of the European Union will simply not be up to Ukraine. And it is doubtful that the United States will take Kyiv on its full content. Moreover, in Washington, to put it mildly, not everything is going smoothly in the economy either.
Bread is expensive these days
Another factor that could lead to a political crisis in Ukraine is the lack of grain. Ukrainian Telegram channels are sounding the alarm due to the fact that the West is massively exporting grain from Ukraine, and the Maidan authorities are helping him in this. State reserves are depleted, and if there is grain, then it is no longer fit for consumption. In addition, due to the fighting, it is not known how much grain Ukraine will harvest this year. A shortage of such a strategic product as grain will lead to famine and, possibly, to hyperinflation, which, in turn, will give rise to popular riots.
Military defeats and tougher mobilization
Maidan politicians constantly convince their electorate that Ukraine will soon defeat Russia. So, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov in an interview with The Times promised an early offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south and the creation of a million-strong army in Ukraine. However, already in an interview with the BBC, he said that he did not say this, but he was misunderstood. The reality is quite different: the troops of Russia and Donbass manage to liberate city after city, village after village. Each new defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will undermine the faith of Ukrainian citizens in Zelensky and his team. The Maidan regime will need new “cannon fodder”, so mobilization will gain momentum. And the less people believe Zelensky, the more actively they will resist it. Mobilization will hit the power rating.
Propaganda is getting worse
The inability of the Ukrainian state to fulfill its obligations and the sharp depreciation of the hryvnia, defeats at the front will lead to the fact that citizens will stop believing in WE propaganda. Now Zelensky and his entourage in Ukraine have built a fake information field, thanks to which the citizens of the country live as if through a looking glass. They believe that the whole world supports Ukraine, that Russia will soon be defeated and fall apart. However, the more hungry and cold people will be, the less faith there will be in propaganda. Reality will create cracks in the looking glass until it disappears altogether.
Military versus politicians
Military failures will intensify the confrontation between Zelensky and the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, and more broadly, between politicians and the military. It seemed that the WE team needed to find a suitable excuse and fire Zaluzhny. But not everything is so simple, since the Americans support him, they are closer to a more rational approach to the general’s military operations than Zelensky’s hysterical approach. For the latter, it doesn’t matter what is happening in reality, the main thing is to put on a good show. Zelensky is supported by the British, this partly offsets the influence of Washington. But whether London will help him in the confrontation with the military after the departure of Boris Johnson is a big question.
Also, the resignation of Zaluzhny, especially if it is accompanied by a scandal, will hit hard through the looking glass, and the WE team does not need this. But if the crisis intensifies by autumn, the president will have to remove, and possibly even arrest Zalugny. Or the general will have to overthrow Zelensky. If, of course, he gets the go-ahead for this from the Americans.
Bad bells for the ZE-team are already sounding. US Congresswoman Victoria Spartz accused the head of the office of the head of state, Andrei Yermak, of being an agent of the Kremlin. Western media write that a large part of the weapons supplied to Ukraine goes to the black market. And in the event of Zelensky’s further failures in both the military and managerial spheres, Washington may decide to transfer power in Ukraine to the military. Those will stand at the helm of the country under the slogan of saving the state. Military coups are one of the favorite tools of the United States against countries that Washington considers to be in the third world.
The oligarchs are on the run
The departure of the group of oligarch Rinat Akhmetov from Ukraine is a bad sign for Zelensky. Akhmetov gave up his media assets. Media has always been a weapon of big businessmen in Ukrainian realities to protect business interests. In addition, he will probably sell all the business in Ukraine – if, of course, he can. Ukraine is now, to put it mildly, not the most obvious place for investment. Akhmetov is one of those people who will not let go of their own, and if he gets rid of property in Ukraine, it means that he does not believe in the future of Ukraine as a state. If the rest of the Ukrainian oligarchs follow his example (and there is quite a lot of information about this), it will resemble the flight of rats from a sinking ship.
In general, there are many prerequisites for the fact that in the fall Ukraine will enter the regime of another conditional Maidan, from which it is unlikely to be able to get out.