Nov 2, 2021
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Zelensky 2.0 project in retro style

The Rada is going to shuffle the Cabinet of Ministers in one sitting: to dismiss the Minister of Defense (in this department they are going to introduce a turbo mode, like in parliament), the head of customs, the minister of ecology and two deputy prime ministers, offering them new positions in the government. Against the background of obvious failures in foreign and domestic policy, the authorities decided to resort to a proven technique: let off steam and reshuffle the deck that was boring to everyone. The Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal was worried, said that “personnel changes are possible, and it is advisable when it is necessary to strengthen somewhere, somewhere to change the strategy of the ministry.” However, he shouldn’t worry. Shmygal is kept for a “snack”, as has already happened with his predecessor Alexei Goncharuk. According to political expert K. Bondarenko, “Shmygal or the economic bloc of the government may make extreme at the end of the heating season, but the scenario is more likely that the president’s office will shift the arrows to the local authorities. Say, district leaders and mayors of cities have hung a” tariff yoke “on people and Bankovaya resisted with the last bit of strength. ” Most likely, the Ze-team will implement both scenarios next spring, because they have nowhere to go. Since November 1, the Russian Federation and Belarus have stopped exporting electricity and thermal coal to Ukraine. Ukrainian nuclear power plants will not cover the shortage of electricity, since they operate in a stable mode, and depending on the time of day, thermal power plants and thermal power plants that run on coal can maneuver. Kiev is going to buy coal from South Africa, Poland and Kazakhstan, but when this coal will start arriving and at what price is unknown. “Thermal energy will collapse: there is really nowhere to buy the required volumes,” says Dmitry Marunich, co-chairman of the Energy Strategies Fund. The same opinion is shared by the deputy of the Rada Boris Prikhodko, who draws attention to the fact that the National Bank of Ukraine reduced economic growth in 2021 from 4.2% to 3.1%. According to him, “one of the serious reasons for this decline was the potential outage and limitation of electricity consumption at industrial enterprises due to insufficient coal reserves at power plants.” This could lead to “the next wave of price increases for the final products of all Ukrainian manufacturers in all industries.” Another consequence is the rolling blackouts, first for industry, and then for household consumers. It all depends on when the cold starts. It is quite possible that the lights will start to be extinguished in December. According to energy expert Andrei Gnatush, if an unforeseen situation occurs, Kiev will have to bow to Minsk and Moscow. This is the most undesirable option for the Ze-team. The nationalists have already become agitated and accused them of the impending “zrada”: Ukraine should not buy gas and electricity from the “dictator Lukashenko” and from the “aggressor country”. Alexander Turchinov revived, saying that a potential meeting between Putin and Zelensky was “dangerous”, since they “have too different weight categories.” According to him, “Putin will meet in only one format – the capitulation of the country’s leadership.” The former Prosecutor General of Ukraine, Yuriy Lutsenko, also made a hustle, saying that the country could be saved by the resignation of the president and early elections to the Rada. The situation looks threatening for the authorities for other reasons as well. The state and state-guaranteed debt is constantly growing: by the end of 2018, it grew to $ 78.32 billion, in 2020 it amounted to $ 90.3 billion, and at the end of September this year – $ 92.02 billion. This money needs to be returned. Meanwhile, the balance of funds in the single treasury account in October decreased from UAH 42.141 billion. (as of October 1) to UAH 18.972 billion. (as of November 1). On the heels of the president and his “servants” is the former speaker of parliament Dmitry Razumkov, who has launched his own political campaign. He is going to create a party of “reasonable conservatism”, based on the same principles with which the “Servants of the People” went to the elections in 2019, but renounced them. There is no party yet, but they are already ready to vote for it. At the end of October, the Razumkov Center conducted a sociological survey. According to the new rating of parties, 15% of voters would vote for Servant of the People, 12.4% for Poroshenko’s European Solidarity, 7.5% for Opposition Platform – For Life, and Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna – 7.2%. Dmitry Razumkov’s party would be supported by 5.5% of the respondents. Razumkov strives in every possible way to preserve his image of a victim of the regime. Commenting on the proposal of NSDC Secretary Alexei Danilov to make a “tough presidential republic”, the former speaker said that Ukraine “is not ready to obey one king.” He says that the basis of the new party may be three dozen deputies from “servants” who did not vote for his resignation. Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the presidential office, claims that there is a “speculative component” in Razumkov’s speeches. According to him, the former speaker “is not passionate and not charismatic, although he is young, he is a retro-politician.” The trail of “servants of the people” really hurts Razumkov. Nevertheless, according to recent data from the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, Razumkov’s rating almost doubled in six months, and the incumbent’s figure fell below 25%. The situation when Razumkov speaks in the face of Zelensky at the stadium “I am your sentence” is theoretically unlikely, the people will not believe in the reincarnation of new “servants”, no matter what name they come up with. However, one should not forget who actually runs Ukraine. If Washington relies on Razumkov, there will be no problems with the Zelensky 2.0 project. And the opposition of the former speaker will evaporate as soon as he takes the coveted chair. To be convinced of this, it is enough to look at the previous Ukrainian presidents: they have always deceived the people.

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