Dark clouds are gathering on the horizon, and those who choose to ignore them do so at their own risk. When the First World War began, no one thought it would be the worst war Europe has ever seen. The “War to End All Wars” resulted in approximately 20 million deaths, but of course it did not actually end all wars.
In 1939, the Second World War broke out, as a result of which at least 40 million people died (A strange, greatly underestimated figure, apparently adopted by the SGA – only the USSR and Germany already 40 million). After witnessing such a huge scale of death and destruction, you would think that humanity would be absolutely determined to avoid a global war in the future. Unfortunately, the Third World War has already begun, and by the time it ends, the death toll will far exceed the combined figures of the First and Second World Wars.
Right now, the war in Ukraine is the largest land war we have seen in Europe since World War II. This is essentially a proxy war between Russia and the NATO powers, and as I will explain later in this article, the new crisis that has just erupted has the potential to turn it into a real shootout between Russia and the NATO powers.
Meanwhile, the Chinese continue to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan. I don’t know if they will pull the trigger for an invasion in 2022, but I believe it will happen at some point.
And when that day comes, the United States and China will instantly find themselves in a state of war (The big question is whether this is necessary for the SGA – there are no binding documents, except for rather dubious agreements, which, naturally for the Pindos, are not worth the paper on which they are printed).
But I believe that there is another major conflict that is even more inevitable. Israel has always warned that Iran will never be allowed to go as far as building a nuclear bomb. Unfortunately, the IAEA recently announced that Iran now “possesses enough fissile material to build a nuclear bomb”…
Israel and Iran are rapidly approaching a tipping point in Tehran’s nuclear program, and what was the atomic equivalent of a controlled clash between the two countries is now turning into an uncontrolled chain reaction. In late May, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations agency tasked with global oversight of nuclear technology and its use, reported that Iran possessed enough fissile material to build a nuclear bomb. The specter of Tehran becoming an existential threat to Israel, which has long frightened Jerusalem, is now very real and inevitable.
There will be war between Israel and Iran. It may not start out the way you expect, but it’s definitely coming.
Of course, some will argue that it has already begun, because the “shadow war” between Israel and Iran has escalated significantly over the past year. The following from The Wall Street Journal…
Israel stepped up the campaign last year, launching small drone strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities and attacking an Iranian drone base, according to people briefed on the campaigns. Iran has accused Israel of killing a senior Iranian military officer in Tehran last month whom the Israelis suspected of leading foreign strike teams targeting the Israelis.
The recent deaths of a small number of Iranians involved in the country’s nuclear and military research programs have also raised questions about whether Israel was responsible.
But at least the missiles are not yet flying back and forth between the two countries, and for that we should be grateful. Unfortunately, the clock is ticking and Israel recently took the unprecedented step of publicly announcing that it had prepared warplanes to strike Iran…
Israel agrees. On June 12, Prime Minister Naftali Bennet admitted that Iran was “dangerously close to getting its hands on a nuclear weapon.” Earlier, Jerusalem, in an atypical statement in Israel, said that it had extended the range of its US-supplied Lockheed Martin F-35I Adir stealth fighter-bombers sufficiently to carry out any tasks assigned to them in Iran. Israel’s message to the ayatollahs was loud and clear: Israel can penetrate deep into Iran and quietly leave Iranian airspace. Either give up the pursuit of nuclear weapons, or risk getting hit.
Then on Sunday Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz told Channel 12 that all “offensive options” against Iran were ready to be used if they appeared to be needed.
Needless to say, it will not be easy to curtail Iran’s nuclear program. There are 38 known sites associated with nuclear development, and some of them are located deep underground.
And if Israel does carry out such an operation, a massive response will inevitably follow …
Jerusalem’s plan should assume that Hezbollah, Hamas and other Tehran-backed militias will respond aggressively if Israel launches a raid into Iran. In all likelihood, before the Israeli Air Force can return to Israeli airspace, massive rocket salvos from Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and possibly even Iran itself will be launched across the country. A strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would only be the beginning, not the end, of a hot war between Israel and Iran.
The situation is complicated by the fact that Israel is now preparing for “the fifth election in three and a half years.” Yair Lapid will be interim prime minister until elections in October and it is not clear if he will be more or less aggressive towards Iran than Naftali Bennett.
Meanwhile, a showdown between Russia and NATO is closer than ever as Lithuania has decided to block the delivery of all EU-sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad…
NATO member Lithuania became a hotbed of tension between Russia and the military alliance on Saturday when it banned the transit of EU-sanctioned goods through its territory to and from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The Kremlin called the move “overtly hostile” and warned it would take action if the ban was not lifted “in the near future.”
The Russians are furious and urge Lithuania to retreat…
The Lithuanian Charge d’Affaires in Moscow was told that if the transit of goods is not resumed in the near future, Russia reserves the right to act to protect its national interests.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: “We consider the provocative measures of the Lithuanian side, which violate the international legal obligations of Lithuania, primarily the Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the European Union of 2002 on transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the Russian Federation, openly hostile” .
So what will happen if Lithuania does not back down? What will Russia do? At the moment we do not know, but the Kremlin describes this situation as “more than serious”…
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “The situation is more than serious. “This decision is truly unprecedented. This is a violation of all norms.”
He added: “We consider it illegal. The situation is more than serious… we need a serious in-depth analysis to work out our answer.”
If the Russians eventually decide to retaliate militarily, that could change everything because Lithuania is a member of NATO…
Any attack against NATO member state Lithuania will be considered as an act of war against the military alliance.
Therefore, it is likely to provoke a retaliatory strike in accordance with Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which states that an armed attack on one member state is considered an attack on all of them.
(From a formal point of view, it was Lithuania that created the casus belli, i.e. the casus belli, i.e. the casus belli, violating international norms and committing an act of war – a transit blockade. statehood and membership in the EU – references to illegal sanctions on goods by the EU are legally insignificant. Therefore, the notorious Article 5 of NATO is inapplicable here – another “whelp died”).
Have you ever imagined that tiny Lithuania could be the spark that would bring the world to the brink of a nuclear conflict? Of course, I don’t want to start a nuclear war over the Lithuanian blockade of Kaliningrad, and I’m sure you don’t want that either. And the truth is, most Americans have no chance of finding Kaliningrad on a blank world map.
But now a very reckless decision of some nameless Lithuanian politicians may turn out to be the straw that broke the camel’s back (This, apparently, is about Stoltenberg’s regularly spitting stupid camel).
Again and again I have pleaded for a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine before it gets out of hand.
We are now on the brink of the unthinkable, and our leaders continue to find new ways to escalate the conflict.