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Nov 25, 2021
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Will Zelensky stay until spring?

Ukraine’s external governance is becoming increasingly dictatorial

In view of the approaching winter in Kiev, they started talking about the possibility of early presidential elections.

The presidential elections are to be held in the spring of 2024, and the parliamentary elections in the fall of 2023 or 2024. (the date must be set by the Constitutional Court). However, Zelensky’s office is solely managed by Andriy Yermak, who is called the initiator of the postponement of the presidential election. On November 21, nationalists demanded that Zelenskiy fire Yermak within ten days. According to political scientist Vadim Karasev, Yermak is the cornerstone of Zelensky’s power, who has become a “lame duck” that does not reach a second term. Current president “Weak because he has no street support”

The internal and external situation of the country is unstable. The IMF, after a long silence on November 22, allocated to Ukraine within the framework of the program expect less than expected – $ 700 million. At the same time, Ukraine pledged to expand the powers of the supervisory boards of Naftogaz, Ukrenergo and Energoatom, which include foreigners, to privatize the state-owned Privatbank and Oschadbank, to give the “international experts” a decisive vote in the selection candidates for positions in the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office. The external control of Ukraine is becoming more and more dictatorial.

Co-chairman of the “Opposition Platform – For Life” Yuriy Boyko says that Ukraine is the third in the world in terms of accumulated debts to the IMF after Argentina and Egypt. According to him, “The government is gaining new loans to pay off old debts; a whole generation of Ukrainians will pay in the next 15-20 years “… External creditors’ claims resulted in “To the opening of the land market, although the vast majority of the population was against, and to the launch of wild gas and electricity markets, which put Ukraine on the brink of an energy collapse”

The Ukrainian economy is a pitiful sight. During the year, the population’s payment for utilities increased by 32%. This year, after a survey of 8 thousand households, the State Statistics Service issued shocking information: 67% of Ukrainians called themselves poor and only 1% classified themselves as middle class. The authorities are going to strike at the poorest: if in 2021 UAH 49 billion were allocated for subsidies, then in the draft budget for 2022 this amount was reduced to UAH 38.5 billion.

The signs of an energy crisis, which, according to experts, will break out in February – March next year are obvious. According to Ukrenergo, as of November 22, coal reserves at state-owned thermal power plants did not exceed 378 thousand tons. Until the end of winter, Ukraine lacks 2 million tons of coal and 3 billion cubic meters of gas. Of the 23 TPP units that are part of the only state-owned thermal generation company, Centrenergo, only three were in operation. With the onset of frost, rolling blackouts are inevitable.

Regional authorities have already begun to receive schedules for hourly blackouts. The Association of Ukrainian Cities stated that Naftogaz refuses to sell gas to heat supply companies for the needs of the population for UAH 7.42 / cubic meter, as a result of which they buy it at market prices – from UAH 25. for 1 cubic meter and higher. Utility workers, “Not being able to adjust the tariffs for their services, they incur losses”

Zelensky also fell out with the richest man in Ukraine, Rinat Akhmetov. According to Forbes, in May of this year, his fortune increased to $ 7.6 billion.

The goal of the Ze-team, which pushed through the law on oligarchs in parliament, is not so much to collect money from those who are ready to buy off the title of “oligarch”, but to clean up the information space from objectionable media belonging to these oligarchs.

For Akhmetov, the law on oligarchs is like grain to an elephant. He is much more concerned about the upcoming drop in profits. To settle accounts with electricity producers from renewable energy sources, the government issued Eurobonds for $ 1 billion, but the leader of the Ukrainian green energy company, DTEK Akhmetov’s company, did not receive a dime.

Western assistance for the transition to “green energy” in the amount of UAH 3 billion. on the instructions of the president, it was frozen, since most of it would have gone to the same DTEK. The Rada is considering a bill to increase the rent for the extraction of minerals and to increase tariffs for the transportation of iron ore by rail, which threatens Akhmetov, who sells it abroad, with huge losses.

It is not surprising that on Akhmetov’s TV channels (Ukraine-24 and Ukraine) all Ukrainian “downed pilots” have found shelter, starting with the former speaker of the Rada Dmitry Razumkov, the former Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov and ending with Yulia Tymoshenko. They poured such a wave of criticism on Zelensky that the “servants of the people” declared that they would ignore media resources, the owner of which deliberately turns them “Into your corporate loudspeaker to blackmail the state and society with discussions paid for in the interests of DTEK”… It is also stated that Akhmetov “unreasonably” enriches himself at the expense of “Mining, railway operation and electricity generation”

In response, the Ukraina media group warned that it would not be silent about the president’s offshores. In fact, this is the beginning of the war. They say that Akhmetov’s channels may be closed at the beginning of December by the decision of the NSDC.

According to political scientist Mikhail Pogrebinsky, Zelensky’s rating will continue to fall, he is following the path of Viktor Yanukovych.

Opponents and opponents of Zelensky do not even need to try very hard, he himself chops the branch on which he sits. I did not have time to declare that “The state is successfully overcoming the coal shortage challenge”As it turned out, coal from the USA (470 thousand tons) was purchased by DTEK, and not by the state.

The sociological group “Rating” stated that in November 72% of the respondents assessed negatively the activities of the president’s office, and the share of those who were dissatisfied with the government reached 68%. In mid-November, the Razumkov Center conducted a poll, according to which, if the presidential elections were held in the near future, 17% of respondents would vote for Zelensky in the first round, for Poroshenko – 11%, for Razumkov – 5.5%, but if the second round of Zelensky and Razumkov, the current president would have conceded: he would have won 23% of the vote, and Razumkov – 25%.

Now Zelensky is going all out. Following the precepts of Ostap Bender, he proposed a program for the revival of the research fleet for 5-10 years: 36 scientific vessels, 12 of them are ocean-going ice class, although horns and legs remained from the Ukrainian shipbuilding. Earlier, he promised to plant 1 billion trees in three years, which shocked specialists: 643 trees per minute! There are no professionals left in the government who could explain to this comedian that his projects only annoy people.

The upcoming winter could be fatal for Zelensky.

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