Oct 29, 2021
0 0

Will Russian pensioners be raised their age again and cut their pensions?

Will Russian pensioners be raised their age again and cut their pensions?

Photo: Artem Geodakyan / TASS

On Thursday, October 28, State Duma deputies considered and adopted in the first reading the bill on the federal budget for 2022 and the planning period of 2023-2024.

According to this document, budget revenues are expected in 2022 at the level of 25.02 trillion rubles, in 2023 – 25.54 trillion rubles, in 2024 – 25.83 trillion rubles. Expenditures, respectively, in 2022 will amount to 23.69 trillion rubles, in 2023 – 25.24 trillion rubles, in 2024 – 26.35 trillion rubles.

“The main goal, the main priority of the budgetary policy is to contribute to the achievement of national goals. For this purpose, the concentration of financial resources on priority events and programs has been carried out, ”the Minister of Finance said during the plenary session. Anton Siluanov, stressing that all tasks within this framework are fully funded and resourced.

Against this background, a very interesting response to this draft law, which was prepared by analysts of Moscow State University before its consideration.

In their work, they, in particular, drew attention to the fact that the current version of the federal is the preparation for the so-called “green energy transition”. In the foreseeable future, the demand for hydrocarbons will fall, which is why by 2036, according to the budget forecast, the share of oil and gas revenues in it will significantly decrease – by about 3.5 percentage points. GDP compared to 2021-2022.

To compensate for such a drop, expenditures of both federal and regional budgets are reduced, respectively, by 2.2 percentage points. and 1.3 p.p. GDP. It is also proposed to reduce the planned expenditures of the Russian Pension Fund (PFR) from 7.8% of GDP in 2021 to 5.9% of GDP in 2036.

This, according to specialists from Moscow State University, may mean either a further increase in the retirement age, or a reduction in the practice of early retirement, or a direct decrease in the size of pensions in the near future.

SP asked its experts how likely any of these three scenarios is.

– Such calculations are very conditional, because this year has shown that preliminary plans for the cost and level of sales of resources can be quickly adjusted, and not by a few percent in one direction or another, but rather significantly, – he shared his vision of the situation with the publication Analyst of FINAM Group Alexey Korenev… – We perfectly see how much oil, gas, metals cost now. To be honest, no one expected a budget surplus this year at all; on the contrary, they expected its deficit at the level of 2.57 trillion rubles.

So all such calculations, firstly, are strongly averaged, and, secondly, they are theoretical. Indeed, it may well turn out that energy prices will not fall much for the next few years, which will allow us to keep budget revenues higher than expected, and not to reduce transfers to the Pension Fund of Russia.

“SP: – And how can they not go down? Look, Europe has already started with the energy transition, we will soon have to pay a considerable carbon tax to the European Union …

– They have there, of course, Greta Thunberg a very popular politician, but the current situation in Europe has very clearly shown that it is too early to make green energy the mainstay of the economy. Look, they have a slightly weaker wind in the North Sea, and the windmills simply could not generate enough energy, and coal mines and even nuclear power plants had already been closed.

Yes, and it is too early for us to decarbonize, in my opinion. We have unique hydrocarbon reserves, unlike Europe, where this is a problem. So, I suppose, life will nevertheless make its own adjustments to world plans and force governments not to rely on “green” technologies as they are supposed to do now.

“SP”: – But if the situation develops according to a negative scenario, then it turns out that pensioners should prepare for the worst?

– If prices for hydrocarbons go down, then yes, the state will have to somehow get out. However, how exactly is the question.

The pension topic, whatever one may say, is extremely unpopular for our domestic policy. But, on the other hand, pensioners have the least influence on what is happening in the country. This, of course, is the electorate, but not God knows what, they will not go to the streets with protests and rallies.

Most likely, I think, if they do, it will be through lowering the level of indexation of pensions. Although here, too, everything is not so simple with our current inflation of 7.8%. How can one not index pensions at least by the promised percentage with such values?

Going to raise the retirement age? I think hardly. People have not yet digested his previous bullying, so it seems to me that no one will dare to take another promotion. After all, this will instantly cause a wave of discontent among a very numerous and active social stratum – people of pre-retirement age. Who, with the help of all kinds of online calculators, have already calculated how many years they will retire, and here – on you, everything is shifting again.

However, he believes Budget and Investment Expert, HSE Professor Ivan Rodionov, counting on what awaits the country in such a distant future is like arguing that if Niagara Falls shifts 5 centimeters every year, then in a thousand years it will be in the North Pole region.

It is much more important, in his opinion, to pay attention to what is happening in our economy now.

“And now, for example, the pensions of our Russians are extremely low,” he notes. – And if at the end of the 30s and the beginning of the 40s of the last century, people suffered because of the pre-war time, then at the moment citizens do not understand why exactly they should endure such economic hardships. Our budget is small and subsidized, but nothing is explained to the people. This, in fact, can develop into something unknown.

Our territory is large, but there are not so many people. It is quite obvious that if the current situation persists, it will be extremely difficult not only to develop it, but even to maintain it. Look at the size of the current inflation, which has increased by at least 20 percent compared to 2011-2012. And also utility bills are growing, which is why pensioners are forced to spend 50% of their pension on food, and everything else on payments for housing. At such a rate, no other draconian measures are needed to lower the indexation of pensions.

And the state, by and large, does not give a damn about all this, as I believe, from the big bell tower. Please note that the number of working pensioners is growing steadily, although these statistics are not shown anywhere. They deduct all the taxes due to the budget, but their pensions do not grow from this. Instead, next year’s draft budget will increase spending on law and order and cut spending on medicine and education.

But why do we pay security officials instead of old people? In order for people to live better or so that those who are dissatisfied get hit on the head with a truncheon?

Article Categories:

Leave a Reply