Apr 10, 2021
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Will Donbass burst out?

Will Donbass burst out?

Photo: AP / TASS

I first came to Donbass in September 2014: I arrived in Lugansk and joined the LPR militia along with my comrades, the National Bolsheviks. In the spring of 2015, after the Debaltseve operation and the conclusion of the Minsk agreements, he returned to a peaceful life. I still have friends and acquaintances in Donbass, so I get information not only from the reports of news agencies. I’ll tell you a little about my vision of the situation there.

In the last two weeks, Donbass has become a lot. The toughest statements by Russian officials regarding Ukraine in my memory. the trip Zelensky, somewhat comical (the profession affects) looking in a helmet and bulletproof vest, in an area close to the front line. The frowning eyebrows of the Americans threatening their warships from across the ocean. Breathes hot into the phone Angela Merkel… As usual, in Lithuania and Poland they say something Russophobic.

There is a lot of speculation about a very likely Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the world press. Most of the authors of publications consider Russia to be the initiator of the forthcoming exchange of blows (an almost settled matter, according to analysts, this exchange of blows). You and I understand that Russia plays with black pieces in a game with Ukraine, but if we talk about propaganda, then the Western media taught where the Russian press learned propaganda.

Donbass, largely forgotten since 2015, has grown again in terms of information. It is difficult to restrain feelings when Russian children are dying one after another under the shelling of artillery and drone strikes. And these are righteous feelings. Should Russia protect Donbass, force Ukraine to peace, if necessary, by military force? Of course it should.

Donbass has something to love Russia for, but it also has something to have a grudge against Russia. If the Russian Federation had sent troops to South-Eastern Ukraine in 2014, when the Ukrainian army simply did not exist, then there would be no war. Children and adults – thousands of people would have survived. Hundreds of thousands of people would not have to flee their homes. Western sanctions against Russia would have been imposed in any case – over Crimea, even simply in connection with the very existence of an independent Russia.

The military operation in the spring of 2014 did not take place. Russia limited itself to half-measures in August 2014, when several battalion-tactical groups of the “northern” defeated the entire military group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In the winter of 2015, after the conclusion of the Minsk agreements, the DPR and LPR found themselves in a strange, suspended state – no peace, no war, no recognition by Russia.

It is difficult to name a peaceful life in the DPR and LPR. Someone works for a penny, someone left – to work or permanently. The quality of life has dropped significantly compared to 2013. With Ukraine, all the pots in Donbass have been broken, the spilled blood and mutual hatred have not gone anywhere. But relations with Russia are not ideal either.

The status of Donbass should become more definite. Ideally, the inclusion of the DPR and LPR in Russia within the boundaries of the former Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine. Other options are also possible, but the existence of citizens of the DPR and LPR as residents of certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine (ORDILO) was frankly sick of it.

So what about the resumption of the war in Donbas? Foreign experts are mistaken (let’s leave the degree of intentional error outside the brackets). The menacing statements by Russian officials and the demonstrative movement of troops to the Ukrainian border do not indicate that Russia is preparing hostilities, but that Russia is trying to prevent them.

It is much more likely that the armed forces of Ukraine will begin full-scale military operations. Ukrainians have found inspiration in the recent war in Karabakh. We felt a bit like Azerbaijanis. We learned the magic word Bayraktar.

But when will Ukraine strike? Hardly in April. A decisive offensive requires some degree of surprise. Now there is no trace of it. Too loud saber rattling is a sign of working for the public, shooting the new season of the Servant of the People series.

Russia represented by the Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak drew a red line for Ukraine, after which the intervention of the RF Armed Forces is inevitable. A major offensive operation against Donbass could be the end of Ukraine as a state.

Therefore, Ukraine will refrain from a major offensive for the time being. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to create long-term, habitual tension. Intensified shelling, military equipment brought up to the front line. Local offensive operations from a series of battles for one village and three ravines are possible.

Ukraine will try to wear down the DPR and LPR armies in the trenches, to dull the vigilance of the troops. All this time, NATO countries will exert diplomatic pressure on the Russian Federation, they will try to force Russia to refuse military support to the DPR and LPR.

In any case, the sanctions against our country will not be lifted. And in any case, they will introduce new ones, they will find a reason. Russia needs to be firm, Donbass has been waiting for this.


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