Jun 14, 2022
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Why Odessa and Nikolaev will be taken from the land direction

Ukraine is actively stocking up on anti-ship missiles, so an offensive from the sea is unlikely to occur. But the way from Kherson is open, although this will increase the timing of the special operation.

The Russian army is strengthening its grouping in the southern zone of the special military operation. In the near future, we will be able to witness the struggle for the Nikolaev and Odessa regions, which fits into the plan for the second phase of the special operation. The capture of cities can be carried out from two directions at once: by land, advancing from Kherson, and along the Black Sea.

A real development of the scenario could be a landing by land, but with sea support, that is, a combined operation.

– If you focus on the naval type of the operation, that is, take it from the sea, I do not think that this will lead to the expected results. Practice shows that the coast against the sea is always stronger. Therefore, landing ships, even with the support of the fleet, are unlikely to be compared with what will be on earth, – believes military expert Alexei Leonkov. He recalled that Ukraine is being given anti-ship weapons that do not allow for a landing operation.

Way to Nikolaev

On the roads from Kherson to Nikolaev about 70 kilometers. It seems that this is a short distance, but it must be remembered that a defense system has been created in front of Nikolaev, which will need to be broken through. Given that Russian troops are stationed on the border of the Kherson region, the distance is decreasing, while difficulties remain.

At the same time, there is a second direction from where you can take Nikolaev. To do this, it is necessary to force the Dnieper estuary. At the moment, there are no Ukrainian troops left on the Kinburn Spit. Thus, the waterway to Nikolaev is open. In addition, Ochakov, standing at the exit from the estuary, was left without ships.

– The warship “Vinnitsa” is flooded. As for the Yuri Olefirenko, a decision was made to withdraw it from the combat area due to the low morale and psychological state of the crew, whose members refused to obey the orders of the command to patrol the Dnieper estuary, sources in the Russian Defense Ministry told Russian journalists.

Attack on Odessa

The key city on the Black Sea coast is Odessa. If Ukraine loses the Odessa region, the issue of access to the sea will be closed for it forever. With Odessa, the issue of capturing is much more difficult. Firstly, the distance from Nikolaev is about 150 kilometers, and secondly, the Black Sea near Odessa is mined. That is, it will be possible to surround and take the city only on the ground, while the Russian troops will act carefully. Naval forces can be used for pinpoint strikes.

“Odessa has been preparing for defense for a long time. Fortifications were built there. Also, the enemy expects to hide behind residential and industrial buildings. There is a calculation that our troops will not fire heavily at the center, so as not to damage the historical buildings, – said military expert Boris Rozhin.

In the event of the fall of Nikolaev, Odessa can be reinforced with a human resource. There is a source for this in Central Ukraine. It is impossible to exclude those retreating from Nikolaev.

Key questions

The march to the Romanian border does not promise to be easy. The same exit to Odessa is impossible without the capture of Nikolaev. Boris Rozhin drew attention to the area. It is cut by rivers, and the bridges have already been blown up. In addition, the ground is open, which gives an advantage to the artillery of the defenders. You will also have to solve the problem of the flank from the northern direction all the time. This will require additional strength. Now every settlement is turning into a fortified area, and with civilians, who are often used as human shields.

– The General Staff of Ukraine gave a strict order to all its troops to turn each settlement into a fortress and make Azovstal out of them. Now we are seeing this in Severodonetsk, then it will be in Lisichansk, Avdeevka. That is, large reference nodes are made. The second problem is related to the fact that the task is to take cities with minimal human losses on their part and on the part of the civilian population, – explained the military observer of Komsomolskaya Pravda Viktor Baranets.

After the liberation of the territories, the problem of their integration will arise. You need to be realistic and understand that in eight years Ukrainian propaganda has made intimidated people out of the population.

– Eight years people were intimidated, before that it was to a lesser extent. Of course, people want to know for sure that Russia will not leave or abandon them. The information component is very important. Managers from the Russian Federation come and begin to restore territories, create a new economic space. This component needs to be strengthened,” political scientist Marat Bashirov noted.

There is no doubt that there will be an attack on Odessa and Nikolaev. Part of the enemy fortifications will be destroyed by cruise missiles, but the advance will be slow. We must not forget that some Ukrainian troops after the defeat in the Donbass will become even more embittered. Also, the process of liberation will be hindered by European countries that want to keep Odessa for Ukraine. Their goal is clear – grain. Ukraine will be supplied with weapons, advisers, intelligence, and Russia with sanctions. At the moment, it is impossible to talk about the timing of the capture of these cities. It all depends on the end of the operation in the Donbass. After that, the phase in Zaporozhye should begin with a gradual strengthening of the grouping in Kherson, which will completely liberate southern Ukraine.

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