Today’s conflict with the West will escalate, which is absolutely inevitable. And Russia will win in it, which is also completely inevitable. Vyacheslav Volodin, Chairman of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, formulated this thesis quite simply and clearly: “The United States will have to move and give way to Russia.”
Personally, I adhere to the same point of view and will present it based on the materials of my many years of scientific research.
The first question is why the clash between Russia and the United States is taking place mainly in Ukraine.
The United States has crept into Ukraine as a springboard from which to put pressure on Russia, supporting the world hegemony of a leader who has fallen into a severe crisis. One of the manifestations of the crisis is the degeneration of the elite ruling the state, which is clearly visible when seniors of different ages come to power – from Biden to Blinken and Psaki.
They know that their country is quickly turning into a kind of rotten nut. The gross national product is huge, but the share of material production in it has been falling for many years, being replaced by the production of services. And the national debt is constantly growing. They render services to themselves, bathe in luxury at the expense of the entire planet. They are supported by the emission of the dollar, huge investments in the armed forces and dominance in the Global Information Network.
To put it bluntly, “to push everyone in order to eat more and rule longer”. Pressure is being exerted on Russia in order to tear it away from the commonwealth with China by threats.
Ukraine is the most convenient bridgehead for this. It should be borne in mind that this country is a failed state, that is, not a state in the full sense of the word. Apparently, it will never be a completely sovereign state, adjoining a stronger one, changing the boss depending on the circumstances.
The problem is that for many centuries this territory has never had its own national elite, raised there, capable of developing and implementing its own sovereign policy. Almost all large Ukrainians are Russians. They could have been born in Zhitomir or Berdichev, but underwent personal development and cultural cutting in Moscow. And even with the middle level of the elite the same thing.
It happened the other way around. My grandfather, deputy chairman of the city executive committee in Kursk (currently – vice mayor), graduated from the law faculty of the University. St. Vladimir in Kiev (now – the state university). And my father, deputy chairman of the Kursk regional executive committee (vice-governor), was the same law faculty, but in Soviet times. Mother, who became the prima in Russian drama theaters, is a graduate of the Kiev Theater Institute. But they are all a product of the educational system born of the great Russian culture in the center of the great Russian Empire.
When Ukraine receives a president in Kiev directly from Krivoy Rog, this is a completely different elite. And they are all different now.
In world science, the concept of a “limitrophic” state is well developed – a marginal territory that is always close to the stronger, always adjacent to someone, no matter in what legal form – as a vassal state or a peripheral region. In the Soviet Union, such territories existed on the basis of rights above the Russians. But they will not have this more, most likely, never and with anyone.
The current government in Ukraine allows the United States to do whatever it wants with the country. Russia, having lost the habit of paying tribute to anyone since the time of the Tatar-Mongol domination, has no other way but to firmly defend its sovereignty.
The second question is why the US behaves the way it does.
As a result of electoral manipulation and, in fact, a coup d’état, a group of insignificant personalities came to power in the United States, very poorly prepared to work for the good of their country.
It is impossible to compare Biden without bitterness with Franklin Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy, and comparison of Blinken, for example, with Condoleezza Rice causes a sad smile, with Henry Kissinger – homeric laughter.
These people make mistake after mistake. For example, they do not understand that the commissioning of Nord Stream 2 can only be stopped by a nuclear war. And that is only because after it Germany will no longer need anything. They do not understand that under no circumstances will Russia return to the G7 (and they are trying to use this format of yesterday as a carrot for us).
But most importantly, they live in short memory. They remember how US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in the late 90s, when asked about Russia’s attitude to NATO’s eastward expansion, replied that she was not interested. They remember how the Americans pushed through the seizure of Adjara by Georgia in 2004 – and Russia was unable to help. They remember how Russia twice did not interfere in the illegal removal of Yanukovych from power.
But they should forget all this and remember the Caribbean (1962) and Berlin (1961) crises. And how they ended. It is worth remembering how Russia defended Crimea.
Question three: they don’t know how to talk to Lavrov – will they have to talk to Shoigu?
The other day, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev gave a long interview regarding the current situation: “We hope that common sense will prevail in Washington.” In my opinion, it is a document that continues the best traditions of Russian diplomacy. Respectful tone and serious warning: Russia is ready to negotiate, but will not back down. Until Russia was heard. Sluggish. But soon they will have to reread Patrushev.
During the Soviet era, the United States had a huge advantage at sea, which doesn’t matter at the moment. And they had a great advantage in nuclear weapons. Now the alignment is not in their favor. The main thing is that the Americans do not have the ability to enter the conflict in Ukraine using conventional weapons. This is not at all like encircling Cuba.
And Western Europe is no help to them. Here the Czech Republic arranges a pitiful provocation in the spirit of the “Skripals case” (supposedly we blew up some warehouse for them – it’s like stealing a spear from an African pygmy). As a punishment, you see, they will not ask Russia to complete the construction of the Czech nuclear power plant. There is no such nonsense that the American lackeys cannot invent. Well, let them shoot themselves in the foot.
In a situation where the German Chancellor was practically absent, the lady, the German Defense Minister Kramp-Karrenbauer, began to make strange statements about Russia. But what is the poor thing to do when in any NATO country the defense minister is appointed only with the official consent of the US ambassador? You shouldn’t pay attention to this at all.
It’s harder with Macron. A brilliant intellectual, the head of a powerful, relatively independent power, a permanent member of the UN Security Council and the owner of nuclear weapons, he wanted to establish “red lines” for Russia. Apparently, he will soon find out that they are passing west of Ukraine.
About ten days ago, in one of the radio interviews, I expressed the idea of the expediency of expelling the US ambassador from Moscow. And on April 16, Assistant to the President of Russia Yuri Ushakov suggested that Mr. Sullivan return to America and think carefully about further relations with Russia together with his superiors. Which Mr. Sullivan did without much ado.
It was not difficult to foresee such a development of events. For Russia, the most effective way to influence the United States in this situation is through the military. And our retired admirals are already publicly proposing to revive the practice of the Soviet era – to start anchoring the sides of American ships in the Black Sea. Technically, it is not difficult to create problems for our “partners” by means of electronic warfare, and simply to establish a no-fly zone over the wild Ukrainian territory. And much more is possible in reality.
But these are extreme measures to protect Russian interests, fraught with great risks. And if, for example, American sailors, stupefied with fear, drop a nuclear charge in the Black Sea? It is better not to bring it to such a point.
Therefore, they began with a diplomatic slap in the face. So John Sullivan had to pack his bags. Although, in my opinion, there are candidates who have long deserved it – Great Britain and some other smaller satellites of the United States. They would send the Briton home after the “Skripal affair”, maybe the US ambassador would not get it …
It seems that our country is facing internal changes as well. It is worth putting in place the agents of the West who abuse Russian freedom of speech and other freedoms, intensify the fight against corruption, and cleanse the vertical of power from malignant growths. I have no doubt that we will have to introduce self-restraint in terms of luxury, to behave more modestly for our home-grown oligarchs. But the main thing is to rebuild the mechanisms of the country’s economic development, to revive the economy.
It is obvious to specialists that this work has already begun and is yielding positive results. There is no doubt that Russia will succeed in everything.