Sep 14, 2022
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Why Armenia quarrels with Azerbaijan, while Russia should have a headache

Why Armenia quarrels with Azerbaijan, while Russia should have a headache

Photo: Alexander Ryumin / TASS

It looks like Russia has another reason for the headache. The Armenian government appealed to Russia, the CSTO and the UN Security Council in connection with Azerbaijan’s encroachment on the sovereign territory of the country. Since there is little hope for the Security Council, Russia and the CSTO (that is, again Russia) will have to clear up the next mess.

Baku and Yerevan, in the long-standing dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, again switched from words to deeds.

On the night of September 13, clashes began between the armed forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan. There are dead and wounded. Both sides habitually accuse each other of delivering the first blow and claim that the other side staged the escalation in order to disrupt negotiations on the fate of the disputed territory.

According to the Armenian Ministry of Defense, Azerbaijani troops intensively shelled Armenian positions in the direction of Goris, Sotk and Jermuk. The shelling was carried out from large-caliber guns, drones were also actively used.

And Azerbaijan stated that Armenian saboteurs tried to mine the paths between the positions of the Azerbaijani army, so measures had to be taken to prevent their actions. A fight ensued.

During the clash, the Armenian side fired, including from mortars, on separate positions, shelters and bases of the Azerbaijani army in the Dashkesan, Kalbajar and Lachin regions. Azerbaijani armed forces fired on Armenian positions in response …

However, the history of shootings and mutual accusations already seems endless.

But you have to delve into the vicissitudes of their confrontation. There are Russian peacekeepers on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, and in Gyumri there is a Russian military base. So aggressive actions by either side that go beyond the usual cross-border skirmishes may lead to the fact that Russian peacekeepers will be forced to intervene.

Actually, in early August, the Azerbaijani military already entered the zone of responsibility of the Russian peacekeeping contingent and occupied several important heights in the area of ​​the Lachin corridor. Baku and Yerevan then accused each other of violating the agreements. Moscow managed to dampen the passions of its opponents, but the Russian Foreign Ministry was pretty shattered by the conflict.

And now Russia is once again in the thick of the conflict. Prime Minister of Armenia Nikola Pashinyan has already held a meeting of the country’s Security Council, at which it was decided to seek help from the Russian Federation, the CSTO and the UN Security Council to resolve the situation on the border. Well, there is no particular hope for the UN Security Council, but Russia and the CSTO are both closer and more reliable. But the question arises: did the Karabakh conflict itself go on a new round exactly when another turning point came in the special operation that is taking place in Ukraine? In such coincidences, it is hard to believe, frankly, with great difficulty. And it’s not just us that are so distrustful.

Veteran of special services Sergei Goncharov also believes that the United States has a hand in the current aggravation (as well as in many other conflicts in the world).

“Today, what is happening on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a continuation of escalating tension, which the United States and NATO countries are actively engaged in so that the Ukrainian conflict is not the only one for Russia. For Russia to disperse its political, economic and moral forces. This is the first.

And secondly, it would hardly be a mistake to assume that as soon as the special operation in Ukraine is successfully completed (and I really hope so), some problems with the former Soviet republics will immediately begin.

It must be said frankly that the situation in most of the countries that used to be part of the USSR is extremely complicated. There are a lot of internal problems there, and at any moment the Americans can stir up negative moods. And we will get a new conflict. although not as sharp as in Ukraine. This is quite expected. As an example, I can cite Kazakhstan, but I will not list further. And we must be prepared for the fact that we will have constant pressure almost along the entire perimeter.

But at the moment, the political and economic situation allows Russia to behave with respect to our enemies quite relaxed.

joint venture»: – How handy will it be for Russia to conduct a special operation and fulfill peacekeeping duties?

– There are no reciprocal links. Russia will cope both with the peacekeeping mission and with the conduct of a special operation. But one must understand that the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a long-term one. And, unfortunately, one cannot count on the fact that our peacekeeping forces will restore order there and everyone will calm down.

Now negotiations will be held, a compromise will be found, the conflict will fade, but will escalate again in the near future. This is inevitable, because relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are in the sphere of interests not only of these two countries, but also of many others: Russia, Turkey, Iran, the USA, France, and so on. However, the current aggravation, apart from the fact that the Americans create additional strain for Russia against the backdrop of a special operation in Ukraine, is of no particular importance.

However, there are other opinions. Expert Mikhail Alexandrov believes that Azerbaijan is trying to take advantage of the fact that Russia is now a little out of the showdown on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

— I don’t think that someone pushed Armenia and Azerbaijan. Rather, Azerbaijan took advantage of the opportune moment when Russia’s attention is focused on the special operation. I have been saying for a long time that the special operation should not be dragged out, we need to act tougher. Because some will take our accuracy and caution for weakness. Now there was a retreat, a regrouping of troops.

This is business as usual. This will require the forces of the CSTO. And by the way, I want to draw attention to the actions of Armenia. Pashinyan is not very supportive of Russia, but when he gets hot, he immediately asks for help from Russia and the CSTO, that is, again from Russia. So it doesn’t fit. Let him announce mobilization and fight himself.

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