The next five years promise to be worse than the previous five years
The strange withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan by the United States makes one recall both the withdrawal of the Americans from Vietnam and the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan.
Then the Americans, having signed on January 27, 1973, the Paris Peace Agreements between the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, the USA, the pro-American regime in Saigon and the Provisional Revolutionary Government of the Republic of South Vietnam, completely withdrew their troops on March 29 of the same year, leaving in South Vietnam a well-armed million-strong army of the Saigon regime , which was opposed by the 200-thousand-strong group of the DRV and the Viet Cong guerrillas. The pro-American regime resisted for over two years, but on April 30, 1975, the People’s Liberation Army took Saigon. On July 2, 1976, the DRV and South Vietnam merged into the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, which still exists today.
Soviet troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan on February 15, 1989 by Gorbachev’s decision in accordance with the Geneva Agreements signed on April 14, 1988 between the USSR, the USA, the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Afghan government had at that time a strong and efficient army, trained, technically equipped by the Soviet Union, and controlled most of the country’s territory (26 out of 28 provinces), while supported by the United States, By Iran, Pakistan and China, the mujahideen are only two provinces. The Afghan government successfully held back the attacks of the mujahideen for a long time, but by 1992, after the Gorbachev leadership refused to provide the army of fighting Afghanistan with ammunition, fuel and spare parts, it began to rapidly lose control over the country and was overthrown by the Islamists on April 28, 1992; the country began to plunge into the chaos of confrontation between military-political groups.
The United States withdrew from Vietnam in a humiliating defeat. The USSR left Afghanistan at the whim of the “perestroika” group in Moscow. In both cases, those they left behind were defeated, and in both cases, those they left behind had the strength to resist for a long time. Moreover, the Afghan government had the strength to win if Gorbachev’s Moscow had not deprived the government army of what it needed.
Now the United States has almost fled from Afghanistan, and the Afghan army fled at the first news of the American withdrawal.
It can be argued whether the Americans needed to send troops to Vietnam in 1961, to Afghanistan in 2001, and the Soviet Union to Afghanistan in 1979, but another thing is true: if you sent troops to another country, then you can either when they are defeated, or when you defeated the enemy and your tasks in this war are solved. As it was engraved on the saber of one of the eastern commanders: “Do not expose without need, do not invest without glory.”
It is known that when choosing between war and dishonor, the one who chooses dishonor receives both war and dishonor.
The United States, having invaded Afghanistan, announced that it had come to protect it from terrorism, radical Islamism and build a “modern democratic society.” Now the US is gone, leaving those who believed it at the mercy of the Islamists.
There is a lot of talk about what will happen to Afghanistan next. Even more – about what will happen to the neighboring countries: Central Asia, the Middle East and how this will affect Russia. Someone also thinks that the consequences can be tragic.
The United States, which fought in Vietnam and left Vietnam, paid for it with the nationwide crisis of the 1970s. Then it will seem that America is a symbol of indestructible power and prosperity, but America of the 70s is not America of the 1990s. In 1979, President Carter, in his address to the nation, will say: “This is a crisis that affects the very heart, soul and spirit of our national will. We can see this crisis in growing doubts about the meaning of our lives and in the loss of unity of purpose for our people. Undermining our faith in the future is fraught with the threat of destruction of the very social and political order of America … For the first time, the majority of our people believe that the next five years will be worse than the last five years “…
The United States was then doomed, but first the USSR agreed in the 70s to “detente”, then in the 80s – to direct surrender, abandoning the struggle that it had been waging for 70 years. Only the USA left Vietnam, suffering defeat, and the USSR from Afghanistan – in a state of painful charm with the absurdities of “new political thinking” and in the prime of power. Our country paid for this with the deepest crisis, the destruction of the state, the loss of the confidence of all international partners.
By and large, since the Second World War, the United States has not won a single full-fledged military victory, but they skillfully created the impression that they have indestructible power, always win and are reliable protection for their clients: this provided them with obedience and loyalty in exchange for patronage.
Now it is different: the United States has shown the world that it is ready to betray its clients and vassals. That their patronage is unreliable, that they can turn around and leave at any moment.
You can secretly (or openly) rejoice at the defeat of the Americans, but much in the world order was based on the idea of their reliability and power. Now it is clear that neither their reliability nor their strength is there.
And this means that the structure of the “only global superpower” is disintegrating, and the collapse of an unsuccessful structure is even worse than the structure itself.
Cover photo: REUTERS / US MARINES
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