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Nov 16, 2021
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Who, what and how will overturn the successors of No. 1,3,4 in 2024

In the photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin

In the photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin (Photo: Alexey Druzhinin / TASS)

The historically personified character of Russian power, concentrated in different eras in the hands of a tsar, general secretary, or president, as it is now, forces Russians to look especially closely at potential candidates for the highest post – successors. Another “Gorbachev” or “Yeltsin“Can lead to the collapse of the country. And the new “Putin“, If he will save her from another collapse, he will do it in the interests of friends and acquaintances from a past life, dexterous nouveau riche oligarchs, and will preserve the notorious” stability “of the poverty of the popular majority.

While giving an account of what the new leader of the country should be, the voter, however, fatally depends on the political menu, drawn up with the participation of the team of the incumbent president. After all, in order to vote for a candidate dear to my heart, she must be on the ballot. That is why the short list of the names of the candidates for the top post is formed with the greatest care, so that, on the one hand, each significant group of voters has its potential leader, and on the other, none of them could surprise the Kremlin candidate with a victory.

However, if history teaches anything, it is that his Majesty chance often interferes in what is happening, overturning the strict calculations of political strategists, social engineers, along with their political clientele. You can prepare for the next triumph, but find yourself at a broken trough. It is unlikely that the Kremlin does not realize this. Most likely, they take into account in their calculations, otherwise how to explain the total cleansing of the political clearing, observed recently, pressure on activists and the preparation of a form of voting that ensures the result – DEG. It looks like the tightening process will continue until 2024.

In the meantime, the incumbent president will be puzzling over the main question: who to choose as the successor? One can sympathize with Vladimir Putin: it is difficult to choose among those who are not suitable for this role. The initially vicious practice of relying on personal acquaintances from different periods of life (university, KGB, St. Petersburg mayor’s office) narrowed the circle of potential candidates. And Putin does not have his own full-fledged party. “EdRo” does not count – it is not for nothing that its five “locomotives” were non-partisan in the elections. In general, the endless reappointments of the same people to different posts literally cry out about the short bench of power. Where can you choose a suitable successor?

The new president will not only have to take the top post, but also successfully continue to lead the country forward in the face of a clear aggravation of the international situation and, possibly, war. And at the same time not to break a firewood in domestic politics, including ensuring the personal safety of the retired president and his entourage. Moreover, the last circumstance is most important – your shirt is closer to your body. If the failures of the country, the fall of the economy, the living standards of the majority of the population are easily tolerated by the Kremlin (they are not ashamed of the pension reform), then the security guarantees should be no worse than those of Putin’s political father, Yeltsin.

This means that the most trusted ally of the incumbent president will be chosen for the role of successor. Their approximate pool has long been determined by experts.

Among the candidates, of course, Dmitry Medvedev… After all, he is the former president of the country, who returned power to Putin, despite the “teasing” of the liberal part of the Russian political class and foreign “partners”. So his candidacy will definitely be considered, even if he has a gigantic anti-rating. Worse than Medvedev for the people only Kudrin, with his accounting anti-human approach to the interests of Russians, which even the latest attempts to mimic the public defender could not hide. Putin is unlikely to offer him, even though he spent the night, as they say, at Kudrin’s cot in the first time after moving to Moscow.

The most popular among the people, and in this sense the antagonist of Kudrin and Medvedev, looks like Sergei Shoigu… The series of catastrophes that Russia experienced since the 1990s allowed him to show his best qualities as an organizer of large systems – the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and then the army. Tired of the lies of politicians, Russians are impressed by Shoigu precisely because he is not a politician, but a man of action. True, this is also his weak side. The task of the president is to balance the interests of different strata of society, and not just to command subordinates, even if clearly and effectively. However, Shoigu will certainly be shortlisted for the successor role.

Another potential successor – Igor Sechin… That’s really who is really business. Under his leadership, the capitalization of state-owned Rosneft rose to record levels (Sechin’s purchase of shares in his own company turned out to be a successful investment). In addition, he established himself as a threat to the liberal clan, as he acted as a persecutor Mikhail Khodorkovsky, and then became the man who imprisoned the Minister of Economy for a bribe Alexey Ulyukaev… In the context of the growing confrontation with the West, skillful opposition to the fifth column, which liberals are increasingly perceived to be, is the dignity of a successor.

Which of the aforementioned candidates Putin will prefer, most likely, he himself does not know. As usual, he will make a decision at the last moment, so as not to stir up passions and not provoke the struggle for the throne ahead of time. Rumor has it that it was for this that the constitution was amended. It is clear, however, that any successor to Putin, politically, will be weaker than him, since the copy is always worse than the original. Just as Putin himself was politically weaker than Yeltsin (the “bespaliy” was gaining political experience within the CPSU all his life, and Putin was just an intelligence agent), until 3-4 presidential terms allowed him to break into the top political league.

Therefore, it is not so much the specific candidacy of the successor that is much more interesting, but the figure who will oppose him in the elections. The politician whom Putin’s successor is destined to defeat, defeat, or to lose. Yes, lose. After all, we do not think that the AP is God and the system of manipulating elections created by it is eternal? Moreover, the political background is rather favorable for this. The upper classes cannot, and the lower classes do not want to live in the old way. So, it seems, was formulated by the classic? Isn’t that what we see in Russia? The tops can barely, and by 2024 they will completely fizzle out. Well, the lower classes don’t want it for a long time. Bingo!

How exactly can political transformation happen? The main problem of the decade for the majority of Russian voters was property inequality and extreme poverty. The unfair redistribution of the Soviet legacy in favor of the few, the subsequent seizure by them (money sticks to money) of other economic assets consolidated the stratification of society into those who can barely make ends meet, having no future, and jaded masters of life who do not want to give up even a small fraction of the accumulated wealth, although for your own safety. In these conditions, the candidate from the left-wing forces will have an unconditional advantage in the elections.

This, incidentally, was shown by the past parliamentary elections, in which the result of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, without taking into account the administrative resource and electronic falsifications, according to analysts, equaled, if not surpassed, the result of the ruling party. Over the remaining 2.5 years, the continuing decline in real incomes of the population due to inflation, an unprecedented rise in prices for food and essential goods, a decrease (into a pandemic!) In budgetary funding for medicine, the increasingly obvious consequences of raising the retirement age will bring the situation to a social collapse. Only leftist politics can save the country.

This means that by 2024 the conditional Grudinin will be megapopular with voters and will be able to harvest the votes needed to win.

Of course, the authorities will do everything possible to pull the votes of critical voters into ideological niches. Liberals, small collaborators from among the “reds”, some “green” and even, perhaps, nationalists ordained by the Kremlin (what they will not do for the sake of power!) victory. But a voter driven to despair can reason in his own way and, stepping on the throat of his own song, support the most likely winner from the opposition. In spite of the Kremlin.

A mechanism known from the last elections as “smart voting” may be triggered. True, the navalnists should be deprived of their alleged merits, so this is nothing new. A solidarity vote for the most passable candidate is a normal, very popular and historically proven political practice many times in different countries. Whether it’s voting within a constituency in parliamentary elections or nationwide in presidential elections. And it could “shoot” in 2024. Moreover, a voter who understands in 2021 that this can be done will not even need additional instructions.

“Here’s to you, get it!” – he will exclaim with hatred in the voting booth and put a bold check in front of the name of the candidate from the left. A little later, panic will begin in the Kremlin.

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