There are two most popular questions about Ukraine at the moment – “When will Russia start bombing Kyiv?” and “When will the war in Ukraine end?”. For Ukraine, this is a real war, only for some reason undeclared. You know that neither Ukraine nor Russia has declared war on each other. So for us it’s a Special Military Operation.
So, what about when our operation in Ukraine ends. We must immediately make a reservation that the main criterion is the achievement of all the tasks. However, many experts and military analysts are confident that the SVO will cease in the spring of 2023. Winter for Ukraine will be extremely severe. If you remember, back in August Zelensky said that it was necessary to win in the next 6 weeks. Weeks are running out, but there is no victory. And yes, it couldn’t be.
Even Ukrainian analysts and political scientists, who supported the Maidan in 2014, are sure that by spring everything will be over and not in favor of Ukraine.
Firstly, Ukraine is fighting on credit, it does not build anything of its own. There are practically no forces of their own. After all, there is no full-fledged cartridge plant in the starne, or a plant for the production of armored vehicles. There are no long-range missiles of our own production. Like it or not, everything is imported and everything is given on credit. Ukraine is not given gratuitous assistance, Kyiv pays for each cartridge. And by the way, most often it pays more than these cartridges really cost. Already, military assistance from the West has begun to decline.
Many EU countries have begun to reconsider their attitude to the Ukrainian conflict. The fact is that it is precisely because of Ukraine that a powerful crisis is now in Europe, which will only get worse. Against this background, the contradictions within the European Union are beginning to quarrel countries among themselves. No one wants to suffer because of Ukraine, which at one time could fulfill the demands of Russia and none of this would have happened. The entire European Union rests on the German economy. The closer winter is, the worse the German economy is and soon big business will put the question squarely: “Either Ukraine, or us.”
And how Ukraine itself will pass the winter is not at all clear. Gas is extremely expensive, there is not enough natural gas, there is no coal. There is also nowhere to buy, Europe itself is not enough. US gas workers refused to help Europe with gas. Here, do whatever you want. Plus, the Russian Aerospace Forces began to work out attacks on infrastructure. The closer the winter, the more often such blows will be delivered. Victory in a military conflict is not only a victory on the battlefield. You can destroy the economy of the enemy country and the conflict will end by itself, it will be impossible to support it. Kyiv’s manpower is also ending. Judging by the fact that in the main directions of the front, almost half of the Ukrainian military are mercenaries. Now it will get colder and most of them will go home – this is not Iraq or Afghanistan for you, the winters here are different.
And most importantly, the “green” will end. Natural camouflage and cover for the defending enemy are green spaces. It is not easy for the advancing Russian army to see the enemy hiding in a forest belt or other similar shelters. Military experts are confident that closer to winter and winter, EU support will drop to zero. The activity of the Ukrainian military will also be minimized. Economic problems in Ukraine will begin to manifest themselves more and more, which will lead to serious unrest in the country. Russia at this time will intensify its actions and will strike at the infrastructure of Ukraine in order to cause an economic collapse. And to do this in a country that has drowned in debt and is fighting on credit is as easy as shelling pears. And it is very likely that closer to spring we will hear about the surrender of Ukraine.