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Apr 5, 2021
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When will population immunity be achieved?

According to analysts of the largest Russian bank, another rise in the incidence of coronavirus will begin in the second half of April. And when will population immunity be achieved, which will ensure the safety of not only those who have been ill and vaccinated, but also other citizens?

According to experts, population immunity can be talked about when at least 60-70% of the population will have immunity to coronavirus infection. In Russia it is 68-69 million people.

What now?

One of the largest domestic private companies in the field of laboratory diagnostics summed up the consolidated results of mass testing for antibodies of classes M and G to the SARS-COV-2 virus infection.

Since the beginning of testing for antibodies of class G (the presence of which indicates the fact of infection in the past with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the formation of a specific immune response) in May 2020, almost 2 million such studies have been performed. Positive results were obtained cumulatively in 31.7% of those who passed the test.

For comparison: in the first two weeks of testing in May last year, this figure was 13.2%, by the end of November it exceeded 23%, and in early February 2021 it reached 30%.

The maximum number of tests for class G antibodies were performed in Moscow. Since May 2020, more than 392 thousand such studies have been conducted in the capital, with positive results cumulatively obtained in 22.8% of patients.

St. Petersburg ranks second in terms of the number of tests performed: out of 150 thousand people who passed the study, 30.1% of them received positive results cumulatively.

Novosibirsk became the third largest test for class G antibodies, where more than 94 thousand tests were performed during the same period. The total number of positive results here is 38.7% (cumulative).

Such data indirectly indicate that herd immunity has not yet been achieved in our country.

When to expect?

In the opinion Minister of Health Mikhail Murashko, collective immunity to coronavirus among residents of our country may appear within the next six months.

As for the situation in the world, according to WHO experts, despite the fact that the proportion of people with immunity against coronavirus infection is higher than official data, population immunity in 2021, if it does appear, will be at best in the last quarter. And the development of herd immunity without vaccination is generally impossible in the overwhelming majority of countries, since even in countries with a high incidence, immunity indicators do not exceed an average of 10%.

There are contraindications. A doctor’s consultation is required

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