The near future
This week, the parliament adopted the so-called so-called "anti-Colomian law", which opens Ukraine the way to IMF loans. Against this background, the hryvnia continued to strengthen. Every day, the dollar at the interbank market fell by several cents and on Friday reached the mark 16, 64 UAH.
As KP in Ukraine told Alpari, over the past week the dollar to hryvnia exchange rate is moderate declined in all segments of the foreign exchange market by 0.5-0.7%. So, since last Friday, the official US dollar rate set by the NBU fell from 26, 82 UAH to 16, 68 UAH (-0.5%). Demand / offer of the dollar on the interbank market, according to the Ukrdiling company, for the same time decreased from 05, 82 / 05, 84 before 26,63 / 05, 65 (-0.7%). The average purchase / sale rates of cash dollars in banks decreased over the week from 26, 70 / 26,05 before 26, 29 / 26, 87 (-0.6% / - 0.7%). At the same time, the spread between the average sale and the average purchase decreased from 1.1% to 1.0% due to a faster decrease in the selling rate compared to the purchase.
- Steady depreciation of the dollar lasts from 26 March, when it reached its local maximum near 28, 2 UAH, - Alpari senior analyst Vadim Iosub explained the situation on the foreign exchange market. - The reason was a decrease in rush demand for the population’s currency, as well as a decrease in demand from importers. In recent days, the decline in the dollar accelerated again, the rate reached a minimum since March). The adoption of the “anti-Colomian” law makes the conclusion of a new agreement with the IMF closer. In the medium term, the strengthening of the hryvnia will continue. Over the coming week, we expect a moderate depreciation of the dollar against the hryvnia. A dollar at the interbank market can be traded in a week about 16, 5 UAH, and a cash dollar at banks can be traded at about 26,5/26, 7 UAH.
In the near future, experts do not predict special turbulences for the hryvnia. On the one hand, there is money for May payments, on the other hand, low business activity due to quarantine does not stimulate importers to buy foreign currency. And the population does not know when and where to go for a vacation, because foreign resorts are still closed. And, therefore, many do not see the point of stocking up currency against the background of falling incomes.
According to the analyst of the Center for Exchange Technologies Maxim Oryshchak, in May Ukraine should pay $ 1.1 billion for Eurobonds 2015 of the year, as well as about 68 million dollars - on the debt of the IMF. The total amount of payments on the state debt for 2020 a year is 400 billion hryvnias.
- Sufficiency gold and foreign exchange reserves will allow the market not to feel the payment process in May, says Maxim Oryshchak. - In addition to the fact that this is not the largest payment of the year, we do not expect a sharp demand for currency in Ukraine. That is, force majeure is not expected during May.
But closer to the fall, many experts predict the deepening financial crisis, which will lead to quarantine. If the second wave of the epidemic awaits us, the situation may worsen. Some experts even say that the crisis can drag on until the end 2021 of the year, and the economy will begin to grow only from 2022 of the year. All this will psychologically put pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate.
At the end of the year, experts do not exclude the devaluation of the hryvnia to the level of 29 UAH per dollar, as the government expects. And in the event of a worsening situation in the economy, the rate may reach 29 UAH. But now it’s too early to make forecasts, there are too many unknowns in this currency equation.