In 2021, inflation emptied the pockets of Russians and approached the 2016 record.
Despite the assurances of optimists from the government, no decline in price increases in 2022 should be expected. The only question is what will rise in price the most.
ALCOHOL AND CIGARETTES
From January 1, 2022, excise taxes on ethyl alcohol and alcohol-containing products, grapes for the production of wines, wine materials, grape and fruit must, cider, Poiret, mead, sparkling wines (champagne), beer with a volume fraction of ethyl alcohol over 0.5 %. Raising these rates will automatically raise the price of alcohol. Economists predict an average price increase of 20% for wine. But it’s not just about excise taxes. Also, the drought in the Krasnodar Territory and Crimea, the lack of own raw materials for the production of wines and its rise in price on the world market have had their say. In addition, the prices for sugar, alcohol and containers are growing.
Excise taxes on cigarettes, tobacco, electronic nicotine delivery systems and liquids for them will also grow in 2022. The increase in prices for one pack of cigarettes will be from 5 to 10 rubles. The average price of a pack in 2022 is about 150 rubles.
Since delivery from abroad has risen in price and there is a shortage of microchips, prices in the segment of gadgets and household appliances are expected to rise by 15-17%. The cost of electronics is also growing due to the new export ban on all types of scrap and waste containing precious metals. That is, businessmen will not be able to dispose of their products under EPR (extended producer responsibility), they will have to pay an environmental fee. Fluctuations in currencies, which are traditionally expected at the beginning of each year, will also have an impact on the cost of technology.
Even at the beginning of 2021, you could buy a cheap laptop for 20 thousand rubles, and now you will not find it cheaper than 30-40 thousand rubles for the same model. At the same time, the rise in prices for gadgets is accompanied by their deficit.
Let’s not forget that since the beginning of the year, cellular operators have increased tariffs prices, which amounted to 6-10%. According to them, the reason for the increase is primarily the Yarovaya package, according to which mobile operators are required to store all user’s correspondence and calls for up to six months. These are colossal amounts of data that require infrastructure that did not exist before. Users will be charged for it. In addition, providers are required to provide free access to socially important sites, which will also place a financial burden on operators.
The rise in fuel prices in 2021 has already caused outrage among motorists and freight carriers. There was even a video appeal to the Russian president on YouTube demanding to curb the appetites of fuel companies. But since the beginning of 2022, the size of the excise tax on gasoline has increased by 6.8%, and on diesel fuel – by 4%. This will only spur the rise in prices.
The damping mechanism, which compensates oil workers for part of the lost profit when the price set by the state is exceeded, was also changed in 2022. By the decision of the government, payments for the damper will decrease. This will inevitably lead to an increase in fuel prices.
Before the New Year, the carriers said that due to the rise in diesel prices by 16-19%, they were forced to raise prices for their services by an average of 15%. And since groceries are delivered to chain stores by trucks, this inevitably affects the rise in food prices. And the government can no longer pretend that inflation in the Russian Federation is influenced only by the global trend towards an increase in the cost of products.
MILK, CHICKEN, COFFEE
Potatoes will rise in price all winter and spring. The cost of potatoes, as small as peas, is affected by its deficit due to the poor harvest in 2021.
Meat will rise in price within inflation – by 5%. As usual. However, prices for chicken are expected to rise due to the emerging feed shortage at Russian poultry farms.
Experts also expect a noticeable rise in prices for milk and all dairy products: butter, cottage cheese, sour cream, ice cream. This is due to a decrease in milk production. The policy in the field of agriculture of the Russian Federation is now such that it has become unprofitable for farmers to keep cows.
Coffee will also rise in price. But this is already a global trend. Prices are influenced by a poor coffee harvest in Brazil and overall logistics problems due to the pandemic.
CLOTHES AND SHOES
Prices for waterproof shoes will rise by 20-30%. The reason was the increase in the cost of raw materials from which it is made, twice.
Cotton has also risen in price due to global climate change. He began to grow worse. Because of this, clothing prices are expected to rise by 20-25% in 2022. Moreover, in the premium segment, things will rise in price by 30%. This is due not only to the cost of raw materials, but also to supply disruptions and rising costs for shopping centers and suppliers. The upward trend in clothing and footwear prices was established back in 2021. Only fabric then increased in price by 15%, and logistics – by 20%. The cost of footwear production increased by an average of 15%.
MORTGAGE AND CARS
With the curtailment of the preferential mortgage program and the rise in the key rate of the Central Bank, the chances of Russians to buy the coveted apartment tend to zero altogether. By the end of the first half of the year, real estate analysts predict an increase in mortgage rates by 9%. And by the end of the year, it is likely that mortgages will cost Russians 14% more than in 2021.
Cars, due to problems with the delivery of imports and low demand for domestic cars, will also rise in value. Used cars will become more expensive. They began to be sold more often broken, with defects, with defects. However, demand still exceeds supply. The shortage of cars in Russia is affected by the shortage of semiconductors and the downtime of car factories around the world due to the coronavirus pandemic.
In 2021 alone, the price of passenger cars has skyrocketed by 34%, that is, on average, each car has risen in price by 234 thousand rubles. And this trend could continue until 2023, automotive experts predict. Until the pandemic is over.
The cost of the car will also be negatively affected by the next increase in excise taxes. In 2022, the Russian Federation will increase excise taxes on passenger cars with engine power over 67.5 kW (90 horsepower) and motorcycles.
RATES FOR Utilities
The communal flat is also expected to rise in price. Traditionally, a surprise awaits us all in July. Utility bills will be indexed in the second half of the year.
Depending on the region, the amount in receipts for rent will increase by 2.9-6.5%. Most of all, tariffs for housing and communal services will grow in Chechnya (6.5%), St. Petersburg (6.3%), Crimea, Sevastopol and Tatarstan (6.2% each). Residents of Moscow, Yakutia and Dagestan (6%) are also expecting an unpleasant rise in prices for communal apartments.
The right to regulate electricity tariffs was given to the heads of regions in 2022. How much electricity bills will grow now depends on the decisions of the governors and regional parliaments.