Apr 30, 2022
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Warsaw is preparing large-scale military exercises – with an eye on Kyiv

Warsaw is preparing large-scale military exercises - with an eye on Kyiv

Photo: ZumaTASS

Warsaw is thinking about bringing its troops into Ukrainian territory in order to “reunite” the lands that previously belonged to it if the opportunity arises. This was reported in the press bureau of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).

According to the head of the SVR Sergei Naryshkin They want to place “peacekeepers” in those areas where the threat of a collision with Russia is minimal. The tasks of the Polish units will include “gradual interception from the National Guard of Ukraine of control over the strategic facilities located there.”

According to preliminary agreements with Washington, the operation (if it comes to that) will take place not under the auspices of NATO, but simply with the participation of “willing states”.

Apparently, Poland hopes that if Ukraine splits during the special operation, then the Polish military units stationed on its territory will be able to take control of part of the Ukrainian territory. Sergei Naryshkin recalled that after World War I, with the blessing of the Entente countries, Poland occupied part of Ukraine, allegedly to protect residents from the “Bolshevik threat,” and then these lands were included in its composition.

After Naryshkin’s statement, Warsaw, as one would expect, portrayed holy simplicity: the press secretary of the Minister-Coordinator of the country’s special services Stanislav Zharin began to assure that Warsaw was not going to capture the western regions of Ukraine. Such information, in his opinion, is being disseminated in order to undermine cooperation between Poland and Ukraine.

But the Polish Ministry of Defense has scheduled major exercises that will begin on May 1 and last the entire month. The agency warned about the intensive movement of military units in the east and north of the country and asked the population to refrain from filming and publishing information about the movement of troops.

The military clarified that by the end of the month, the movement of the columns will be carried out along the roads of the West Pomeranian, Lubuskie, Greater Poland, Kuyavian-Pomeranian, Lodz, Mazovian, Lublin and Warmia-Mazury voivodeships.

The press release clarifies that “the arrival and passage of convoys will also be used by participants in the exercises to practice the reception and transfer of allied forces, coordinate cross-border actions and cooperate with host states.”

Citizens of Russia, this news is slightly puzzled.

“I don’t understand the logic at all! Russia will already protect Ukraine from the invasion of Poland? That’s the twist, Hollywood smokes on the sidelines”;

“So that’s what Insert A few days ago I spoke about the intervention of third countries. Clearly understood”;

“Now the US is ready to fight Russia to the last Pole?!”;

“The western regions of Ukraine may well be chopped off, our troops are not there … I wonder if there will be sanctions against Poland for “annexation”? Or is it different?

But the Polish maneuvers are only flowers! Simultaneously with Warsaw, the Romanian Ministry of Defense, commenting on the reports that appeared in social networks about the transfer of military equipment to the border with Ukraine and Moldova, announced the conduct of exercises with the participation of NATO countries. Bucharest assures that the training activities are carried out as part of measures to strengthen the security of NATO’s eastern flank.

That is, a whole series of exercises will take place this summer in a number of countries from Finland to North Macedonia. Tens of thousands of military personnel from NATO member countries will gather at the training grounds. The Joint Expeditionary Forces created in 2014 will also be involved (military formations led by the United Kingdom, designed to operate on foreign territory; they may include units from Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway – WELL.)

The UK has already said it will send 8,000 men to participate in the maneuvers. They are expected to be the largest since the Cold War. But back to the Poles.

“In principle, these are planned exercises,” the military expert reflects. Alexey Leonkov.

“Our Ministry of Defense has known about them for a long time. In general, countries usually notify each other that they are planning exercises. This is done so that the other side does not think that an attack is being prepared on it. It’s just annoying that these exercises will be carried out during our special operation. and even against the background of the statements of the Polish leadership in Western Ukraine. That is, these teachings have acquired a political coloration that cannot be called friendly.

Former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and former Deputy Secretary General of the United Nations Sergei Ordzhonikidze believes that the exercises can just become a harbinger of the entry of Polish troops into Ukraine.

“It’s not difficult for them to find a reason – they will come up with some kind of another shootout and say that they were attacked. If they move troops, then they can move them anywhere, in the direction they need. But how much political determination and military courage they have, I don’t know, ”he said in an interview with Izvestia.

The diplomat also explained that the troops could be brought in under the pretext of “protection from Russia’s actions”, in which case Kyiv should turn to Warsaw with such a request. But for that, it is necessary that the military contingent receive the status of a peacekeeping force – and here much will depend on Moscow’s position.

Political scientist Vadim Trukhachev believes that the matter may not reach the point of sending “peacekeepers”.

So far, these are just words. If someone is sent, then only to take control of the Rivne and Khmelnitsky nuclear power plants. But if Russia advances to the West, Poland may send troops to indicate that it will not allow Russia to enter Western Ukraine.

This will not end with a clash with Russia, because the Russian army will not go west of Vinnitsa and Zhitomir. And Poland will not go east of Khmelnitsky.
In fact, this looks like a division of spheres of influence in Ukraine. Formally, it will remain. but in reality its sovereignty will be sharply reduced.

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