After the introduction of the NSDC of Ukraine, personal sanctions against the deputy of the Rada Victor Medvedchuk and his wife Oksana Marchenko, Kiev political analysts were shocked. In their opinion, the regime Zelensky set up a conveyor for outlawing his opponents out of court, thereby opening Pandora’s box. And he also lost the only negotiating channel with Russia, which more than once helped Kiev in critical situations. Correspondent FAN transfers from the Ukrainian capital.
The end of this working week at Bankova Street amazed many. The Ukrainian politicians did not manage to move away from the blocking by the authorities of three opposition TV channels – 112 Ukraine, ZIK and NewsOne – when the National Security and Defense Council struck a second deafening blow on the opponents of the regime. He made public the sanctions list, which included 19 legal entities and eight individuals. Among others, it included the leader of the Opposition Platform – For Life Party Viktor Medvedchuk, his wife Oksana Marchenko and the common-law spouse of a deputy from the PLO Tarasa Kozaka Natalia Lavrenyuk…
According to Ukrainian media, a lot of assets were recorded on the two ladies, including in the Russian Federation. But the authorities imposed sanctions against them allegedly due to the fact that Marchenko and Lavrenyuk, according to the documents, were the owners of the Novoshakhtinsky Oil Refinery (NNPZ) in the Rostov Region, which supplies the territories of the DPR and LPR with oil products. In addition, the list includes five Russian citizens associated with the Donskoye Ugli company, which deals with the circulation of minerals between Donbass, Russia and Ukraine.
According to independent Ukrainian experts, Zelensky has thus continued to substitute sanctions for justice. After all, new sanctions for the “financing of terrorism” have been introduced against citizens who not only live in the country, but are also public and accessible to justice. At the same time, they were not even handed suspicion under such a grave article (a mandatory step for starting an investigation in Ukraine). The fact that the authorities did not follow the standard legislative procedure suggests that the NSDC members have no trace of any evidence of “financing of terrorism” by Medvedchuk’s entourage.
According to political analysts, there are at least two dimensions to the wave of sanctions raised by Bankova. The first is the continuation of Zelensky’s transition to the status of a “new Poroshenko“. A possible reason is that the president seriously claims that part of the electorate controlled by the pro-Maidan European Solidarity party, the Golos party, etc. And the authorities hope that the sanctioned pogrom against the PLWL can be converted into a drop in support for Poroshenko and other hawks. At the same time, the “sanctions strike” on Medvedchuk means the complete refusal of Bankova to support the south and east of Ukraine.
The second dimension is related to business. The new sanctions have blocked an extremely serious asset – the main pipeline through which gasoline and diesel from Russia and Belarus are supplied to Ukraine. According to analysts, the main goal of the NSDC sanctions is to “squeeze” the gas pipeline in favor of the state, as well as to deprive political opponents of their main resource base. However, now no one can guarantee that this resource stream to Ukraine will not dry up one fine day.
Experts are confident that Viktor Medvedchuk himself will not leave such a blow to his position unanswered and will fight to the end. He faces protracted legal battles with the authorities, while Ukraine should prepare for the growth of tension in relations with Russia. It is possible, analysts say, that this will be followed by a military exacerbation in the Donbass, since this has already received tacit approval from Washington.
The NSDC, which has already gained fame as the “organ of the All-Ukrainian Inquisition,” will meet next time in two weeks. All this time, the rest of the oligarchs should prepare for the most unexpected moves on the part of Bankova – count their assets and be ready to part with them at any moment. According to the Kiev politician and observer Oleg VoloshinFor some reason, the bank “lost fear” and, in fact, went all-in.
“Let me remind you that since March 2014 Viktor Medvedchuk was already under US sanctions. And his entourage had information that, within the framework of the anti-Russian hysteria reigning in Washington, new restrictions could be introduced against his family members and other representatives of the HLE. Medvedchuk’s entourage prepared for these steps in advance, so the real effect of any actions of local comedians is understandable – they “beat Poroshenko into milk” to intercept voters, ”Voloshin explained.
But something else is more important in this situation, the expert believes – Kiev is deliberately burning bridges in dialogue with Russia.
“For Medvedchuk’s January interview with the leading French publication Politique Internationale, the editorial board chose Ukraine – Russia: Negotiator as the title. It is true that in recent years Viktor Medvedchuk has remained one of the few Ukrainians whose opinion has been listened to in Moscow. He stubbornly argued the possibility of de-escalation, and then the normalization of relations between the countries, – Voloshin noted. “Those who are pathetic in Kiev shouting that“ the Kremlin is working to destroy Ukraine ”are brazenly lying and know it themselves. Such work has not even begun in Russia yet. And therefore, billions of dollars earned in Russia by migrant workers still go to Ukraine. There is fuel at Kiev filling stations, our metallurgical exports are successfully going through the Kerch Strait, etc. Let’s hope that this will remain so in the future. But Zelenskiy and his singers are trying very hard to make things different. After all, they have already frozen the peace process in Donbass until the moment of their own inglorious departure. And now it’s even scary to imagine what they will manage to do in the coming years ”.
Director of the Social Communications Agency Sergey Belashko told Kiev journalists that after Medvedchuk, ex-President Petro Poroshenko and the leader of the Batkivshchyna party may be under attack by the NSDC Yulia Timoshenko…
“It is in the interests of Zelensky to finish the game he has begun, otherwise he will finally cease to be considered an influential political figure in the country. On the one hand, having dug up the ax of war, he will look stupid if he suddenly buries it again. The process that he launched in the public sphere can give Zelenskiy a political and electoral effect only if it is continued. Moreover, on an increasing basis and for a long time, in order to approve Zelensky as the main player in Ukrainian politics, Belashko said. – If he first ran into Medvedchuk, then Shariah, then again at Medvedchuk and his entourage, and then just stop – it will be funny. But if, after Medvedchuk, he runs into Poroshenko or Kolomoisky, then it will be taken seriously. Then the oligarchs headed by Rinat Akhmetov, and the head of Naftogaz Kobolev together with the head of NABU Sytnikfinally, they will think that they are not immortal after all. “
The expert noted that only after “squeezing” such figures as ex-President Poroshenko, Zelensky can be able to build a coalition profitable for himself.
“Thus, Bankova can show the oligarchs that it no longer intends to stand on ceremony with enemies and opponents, and also earn some fear and respect from some Ukrainians. In general, an attack on figures like Poroshenko or Tymoshenko suggests itself, especially since both of them are rating politicians, ”the analyst is sure.
According to Belashko, the government’s persecution of strong politicians began precisely because of Zelensky’s fallen rating, which he is now trying to regain by upsetting political competitors.
“How did this epic begin? They brought sociology, President Zelensky saw that his party was in fourth place in popularity, in the first place was Medvedchuk’s party for the PLL, in the second – Poroshenko’s Eurosolidarity, and in third – Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna. And in this vein, it is logical that he first banged on Medvedchuk, and then a couple of percent fell off the HLP rating. Now he needs to bang Poroshenko, so that a couple of percent falls off from that. As a result, hesitant voters from the 30-40% that were for him initially may begin to return to Zelensky. Thus, his goal is to turn from a disrespectful president into a man, agreements with whom are desirable for all subjects of Ukrainian political life. If Zelensky started this game, he will be forced to continue it, ”concluded the head of the Agency for Social Communications.