Jan 10, 2022
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USA: Tokayev must decide with whom he is – with us or with Moscow?

In the photo: the arrival of the Russian CSTO peacekeepers in Kazakhstan

In the photo: the arrival of Russian CSTO peacekeepers in Kazakhstan (Photo: Russian Ministry of Defense / TASS)

The United States will demand from Kazakhstan to explain itself for the invitation of the CSTO peacekeepers, the Secretary of State said Anthony Blinken

“We have real questions why they were forced to turn to this organization, which is dominated by Russia. We ask for clarification on this matter, ”he said.

“One of the lessons that recent history has taught us is that when Russia comes to your home, it is sometimes difficult to get it to leave,” he said.

Obviously, the Americans are offended that Tokayev turned to To Putin, not to them. And how it hurts.

According to a former adviser to the ex-president of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev Ermukhamet Ertysbayeva, the introduction of the CSTO peacekeepers “infuriated the Western countries, which are showing great interest in Kazakhstan, investing in its economy.”

“In the Central Asian region, Kazakhstan has a gigantic interest of the European Union and the United States. They have invested almost 376 billion dollars here, especially in the hydrocarbon sector … Therefore, the introduction of CSTO troops has now infuriated the entire West. There is no doubt that foreign external forces arranged or are involved in this debauchery and in the attempted armed rebellion … This had to be done in order to create an unpleasant hotbed in the rear of Russia, because Russia is starting tough negotiations with the United States of America, NATO “, – he said.

Well, they rage and rage, but decency is something worth observing. Blinken misunderstood anything? Why on earth should Tokayev be accountable to him?

– The United States is no longer an international gendarme, but Blinken still thinks in the paradigm of a unipolar world, – I am sure Head of the Expert Council of the Fund for Strategic Development Igor Shatrov

– This is the inertia of thinking, the habit of looking down on others – the phantom pain of the empire that has rolled down. The operation in Kazakhstan is the first operation of the collective peacekeeping forces of the CSTO. The West did not previously perceive the CSTO as a serious alternative to NATO in the Eurasian space. Well, the history of Kazakhstan will be a lesson.

“SP”: – Blinken regrets that Kazakhstan did not ask NATO for help?

– Blinken worries that the United States will not be able to play the Kazakh card at the talks with Russia on security guarantees that began in Geneva. The very fact of the introduction of the CSTO peacekeeping contingent sobered the extremists, who retreated and hid in the corners. Otherwise, the problem would have been presented to Russia by the Americans as a problem that arose through the fault of Russia. After all, Kazakhstan is Russia’s partner in many areas, an active participant in the EAEU and other integration projects.

If the events in Kazakhstan became critical, and the CSTO did not intervene, it would be Russia that would be accused of inability to ensure security at its own borders, at its closest allies. Well, what kind of negotiations could we talk about then?

“SP”: – Former adviser to Nazarbayev Yertysbayev believes that the introduction of CSTO peacekeepers in Kazakhstan “enraged” the West. Why? Did we foil their plans?

– Even if the West were not involved in the events in Kazakhstan, any decision with the participation of Russia, which defused the situation and confirmed the reliability of relations with Moscow, would have caused an unhealthy reaction. After all, this means that the “help” of the West will not be required. Namely, through the creation of crises, which were subsequently stopped, the same United States and penetrated into many countries.

“SP”: – Has the situation in Kazakhstan become a test for the CSTO? Did she endure it? After all, this is, in fact, the first serious application of the organization …

– The check was passed with dignity. As the President of Kazakhstan Tokayev said at the extraordinary summit of the CSTO, the landing of the first three planes with peacekeepers influenced the plans of the terrorists, who immediately abandoned their intentions to storm the presidential residence. And this, in turn, allowed the Kazakh authorities to relocate part of the security forces to Alma-Ata, which took the brunt of the bandits’ blow.

At the summit, the leaders of the CSTO countries spoke about the problems that exist in the Collective Security Treaty Organization. This, in particular, is the lack of efficiency and uniformity of procedures at the national level. We all watched, for example, how long it took to make a decision to send troops to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. And this is only part of the problem. But in general, we can already say that the first use of the CSTO peacekeeping contingent has become successful.

“SP”: – Is it possible to consider that the positions of the West and Turkey in Central Asia will now weaken?

– Such processes do not happen so quickly. More serious attitude towards the CSTO among the countries of the region? Yes. Return to the Organization of Uzbekistan? Over time, this is possible. I think that even the entry of neutral Turkmenistan into the CSTO is possible over time. Serious conclusions about the role of Western NGOs in preparing such “protests”? Probably, too, will be done. If at least such a change in the minds of the leaders of the Central Asian countries occurs, it will not be bad.

“SP”: – In your opinion, the situation has strengthened Russia’s position in negotiations with the US and NATO? Obviously, the organizers of the riots wanted them to weaken …

– The demonstration of the potential of the CSTO, the turning point in the Kazakhstani events, which occurred from only one demonstration, unambiguously deprived the West of a number of arguments and strengthened Russia’s position in the negotiations.

– The United States considers the introduction of Russian troops illegal, – explains Associate Professor of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Gevorg Mirzayan

– Allegedly, Kazakhstan did not have the right to introduce CSTO peacekeepers to fight “peaceful demonstrators”, some of whom were raised by American and pro-American NGOs. Apparently, Washington still needs to carefully read the CSTO charter, as well as watch video and photographic evidence of the consequences of “peaceful protests” on the streets of Almaty.

“SP”: – We were ahead of them with the introduction of peacekeepers? Did they want it themselves?

– If you are ahead, then Turkey. Ankara itself wanted to send troops through the Association of Turkish States, thereby fixing its military presence on the territory of Kazakhstan and Central Asia as a whole. But the West rather didn’t like the determination and promptness in decision-making. No one expected Moscow to respond so quickly to a request and so obviously prove to everyone the reality of the CSTO as a security umbrella.

“SP”: – Could Tokayev, in theory, ask for help from NATO? He continues Nazarbayev’s multi-vector game …

– I could ask. And I would not have received it, since the decision on such assistance would have been made for a very, very long time – and it would not be a fact that it had been made at all. During this time, the security situation could have worsened even more – up to the threat of a change of power.

“SP”: – Now what? Is the multi-vector approach over? Will our positions in Kazakhstan be strengthened now?

– In theory, yes. In practice, we must see what conclusions Kazakhstan will draw from the events that have taken place. If it abandons its multi-vector approach, if it stops fostering nationalism, if Moscow begins to develop normally the institutions of soft power in the region (with the support of the Kazakh authorities, of course), then the influence of Russia and the CSTO will increase. If the work on the errors is not carried out – well, then we will see new disorders in the near future. And, perhaps, not only in Kazakhstan.

“SP”: – Has this situation strengthened our position at the talks in Geneva?

– Definitely strengthened. Let us remind you that Moscow claims to transfer the post-Soviet space into the Russian sphere of influence. Meanwhile, after the very weak position of the Kremlin in the Second Karabakh War and the demonstration of angelic patience against the background of regular Ukrainian shelling of Donbass, many began to feel that the Kremlin would not pull control of the region. That Russia has neither the resources nor the political will for such control. By making the decision to bring in CSTO troops, Moscow demonstrated its desire, efficiency and, most importantly, readiness to defend its interests by military means. And not only in Kazakhstan.

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