Oct 21, 2021
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US and Russia may start fighting over Belarus

USA and Russia may start fighting over Belarus

Photo: Petr Kovalev / TASS

The third world war could happen over Belarus. A senior researcher at the Cato Institute writes about this in an article for 19Fortyfive. Ted Galen Carpenter

He believes that relations between Minsk and the North Atlantic Alliance are deteriorating: the border of Belarus with Poland and the Baltic states is being militarized on both sides. The deployment of military forces in the region, he said, raises concerns and is far from abstract.

“Under Article 5 of the NATO Charter, the United States is obliged to help an ally that has been attacked,” Carpenter recalls.

The expert suggests that a provocation may occur on the borders of Belarus and the alliance states, in which it will be very difficult to find a real organizer. The growing tension between NATO countries and a key military ally of Russia could lead to tragedy, he is convinced.

In this regard, the author proposes to the President of the United States Joe Biden discuss this issue with a Russian colleague. In addition, in his opinion, Washington should explain to Warsaw that further militarization of the border with Belarus is not only useless, but also dangerous. Poland and other US allies need to make it clear that the fifth article of the NATO charter does not give them carte blanche for reckless provocations, the American expert is convinced.

What does it mean? Another horror story? Does the author just want to declare himself? Or do such fears really exist?

Military political scientist, associate professor of the Department of Political Science and Sociology of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Alexander Perendzhiev believes this article is customized.

– It was written in the framework of information support to justify high military spending, both in the United States and in NATO. But now is October – budget planning for the next and subsequent years. At the same time, a direct hint is made to official Warsaw and other European countries that it is necessary to fork out in favor of NATO. And do not forget to allocate money to ensure the presence of US Army units in Poland. Well, the pursuit of such a goal as getting a certain share of fame and, of course, a good remuneration for one’s “scientific” work is undoubtedly obvious.

“SP”: – Speaking theoretically, is a provocation possible, which will involve NATO and Russia in the war? How might it look like?

And here it makes no sense to fantasize. Provocations from the United States and other NATO countries, as well as Ukraine, occur periodically in relation to our sea, air and land borders. There are many examples – the incident with the US Navy destroyer Chafee in the Sea of ​​Japan on October 15, the incident in the Black Sea on June 23-24 with the participation of the British destroyer Defender. These are the most striking, well-known and still very recent provocations. And I personally believe that there will be new actions like them.

“SP”: – Carpenter believes that Washington should explain to Warsaw that further militarization of the border with Belarus is not only useless, but also dangerous. That is, he directly indicates that the provocation may be precisely from Poland? But why does Poland need it?

– The point is not whether Poland needs it or not. The point is different – this is a provocation on the part of the official Warsaw is needed by the United States and NATO. This is a kind of preparation of information support for this provocation. It will be prepared (or is already being prepared!) By the Pentagon together with the military command of the North Atlantic Alliance. But at the same time, if anything, the Polish leadership will be to blame, not the United States and NATO. But they, as allies, will come to the aid of official Warsaw. And they will say: “We warned that Poland could carry out such a provocation, but you (Russia and Belarus) did not believe”! Themselves they say are to blame! That is, official Washington, preparing some kind of powerful provocation on the part of Poland and with the participation of its power structures, primarily in relation to official Minsk, is already creating mechanisms to avoid accusations against it!

“SP”: – To what extent are Moscow and Brussels ready for such provocations? Is there a mechanism to prevent them? Protection from a fool or a provocateur?

– There are certainly such mechanisms. These are the negotiating platforms between the military leaders of Russia and NATO in Baku and Helsinki. There are military diplomats from NATO countries, including the United States, accredited at their embassies in Moscow, as well as our military diplomats at Russian embassies in the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance. Diplomatic relations between official Moscow and NATO were a good mechanism for preventing various misunderstandings. But from November 01, 2021, they will be severed. And this happened at the initiative of the leadership of the North Atlantic Alliance. Perhaps this was specifically done to intensify provocations near the borders of Russia and Belarus, which are discussed in the article by a researcher at the Cato Institute about the risk of war between the United States and Russia over Belarus.

“SP”: – Is it only there that there is a danger of a collision between Russia and NATO? Where else? How serious is it?

– A serious collision can occur while protecting our Arctic borders from US and NATO encroachments. Russia has been carefully preparing for this since 2011. It is possible that provocations from the territory of Poland may in fact turn out to be a diversionary maneuver for a full-fledged military operation by the armed forces of the Collective West to deprive Russia of its Arctic resources.

– Let’s start with the fact that the United States did not declare the possibility of war. Neither the White House, nor the State Department, nor Congress said this. The quote belongs to a well-known, but still a political scientist – Ted Galen Carpenter, – emphasizes Associate Professor of the Financial University Gevorg Mirzayan

– Which has no influence on the decision-making process and cannot declare war and peace. The author does not need to declare himself – everyone knows him, he just expresses a point of view.

“SP”: – According to Carpenter, relations between Minsk and NATO are deteriorating, the border of Belarus with Poland and the Baltic states is being militarized on both sides. Do you think everything is serious and critical? Didn’t it happen before?

– Of course, there is militarization. It is unpleasant. Militarization is accompanied by information hysteria and noise. This is also unpleasant. There, refugees scurry back and forth, the risk of some kind of forceful actions is high. However, there is no need to say that we are on the brink of war either. Even in the case of local battles, the parties will not automatically launch a chain of actions that will lead us to a series of nuclear launches. All the same, here the reaction mechanisms are well-adjusted.

“SP”: – According to Carpenter, a provocation may occur on the borders of Belarus and the alliance states, in which it will be very difficult to find a real organizer. Is this even possible, at least theoretically? What kind of provocation could this be?

– There are many provocations. And the clash between the Belarusian and Lithuanian border guards because of the refugees. And the murder of one of the border guards by an unidentified person (the same refugee). But these are, after all, not cross-border tank marches. I think these issues will be settled. The way Indo-Chinese clashes or inter-Korean ones are handled.

“SP”: – Whatever the provocation, is someone in NATO ready to go to war with Russia over Belarus?

– Definitely nobody. Neither because of Belarus, nor because of other moments. The only scenario when they can be ready is a full-scale Russian invasion of NATO territory.

“SP”: – Is Lukashenka ready to fight, even knowing that Russia is “harnessing”?

-Also no. He doesn’t want Belarus to turn into one big “Fallout” or Chernobyl.

“SP”: – And what about the Poles? Carpenter actually warns that it is they who can provoke the war …

– The Poles are really stirring up the conflict. As well as the Balts. And the United States cheats on them, primarily for political reasons. By deploying troops in Europe, the United States does not so much threaten Russia as it strengthens its control over the European space. Therefore, they will not remove their soldiers from there.

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