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May 17, 2022
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“Uran-9” and “Bumblebee”: the Armed Forces of Ukraine are digging in, but even in the West they admit that this will only delay the defeat of Zelensky

In the photo: shock robotic complex (RTK) "Uran-9".

In the photo: shock robotic complex (RTK) “Uran-9”. (Photo: Vadim Savitsky/press service of the RF Ministry of Defense/TASS)

The allied coalition has almost completely regained control over the Lugansk region. Only a few settlements remained, including industrial Severodonetsk.

Taking the rest of the territory of the Donetsk region is a matter of time, Western military analysts point out. True, this process may not be fast – the Ukrainian defense is too well echeloned, which, with the support of NATO, was built for eight years.

Institute for the Study of War: the battle for the LPR will end very soon

Russian troops are effectively solving the tactical task of completing the liberation of the Lugansk region, analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) write. Frederick Kagan I George Barros.

They are convinced that the Russian military command in the coming days will give priority to the battle for Severodonetsk. This city with a population of just over 100 thousand people is also a major railway and industrial hub.

Here, in particular, one of the largest Ukrainian chemical enterprises, Severodonetsky Azot, is located, in whose warehouses a huge amount of nitrogen substances has accumulated. They can be used for sabotage. Therefore, it is necessary to obtain full-fledged military control over the enterprise as soon as possible, guaranteeing the safety of warehouses and workshops.

Now the allied forces of Russia, the DPR and the LPR continue their coordinated efforts to capture Severodonetsk from the north and south. One of the main areas of impact is Rubizhne, which is actually a suburb of Severodonetsk.

Such tactics will allow to surround a large grouping of Ukrainian troops, states ISW. Although somewhat smaller than originally thought, when the Allied forces tried to force the Seversky Donets River near Kremennaya.

The offensive will also take place along the Lisichansk-Bakhmut highway, which will allow the final encirclement of Ukrainian units in Rubizhne, Severodonetsk and Lysichansk. In fact, this will mean the end of the battle for the LNR.

ISW analysts note that Russian forces have been extremely successful in destroying Ukrainian land lines in the eastern part of the Donetsk region, which is still under the military control of Kyiv.

Kagan and Barros note that Russian troops are also engaged in fortification in the southern direction, where the greatest success has been achieved so far. Russian fortifications are being erected in several Ukrainian (so far) regions – Kherson, Zaporozhye and Mykolaiv. However, there is nothing new in this.

Voice: the open terrain of the Donbass facilitates the maneuvers of the allied forces

Both fire superiority and natural factors contribute to the rapid advance of the allied forces in the Donbass.

The territory in the north of Ukraine is swampy, with an abundance of water bodies, which forced the military to move only along the roads. Thus, Russian troops were limited in the number of routes that could be used to attack Kyiv.

The terrain to the east is more open – so Russian artillery systems and tanks can be moved around however you like. And this is extremely important, because when attacking the Donbass, Russian troops effectively use superiority in artillery and aviation, an American analyst writes. Zach Beauchamp in the edition of Vox.

Vox cites Senior Fellow, Eurasia Program, Institute for Foreign Policy Studies Rob Leewhich indicates that the offensive in the Donbass for Russia is obviously much more advantageous than the initial attempts to take control of Kyiv.

“Russia will avoid many of the pitfalls faced by Russian troops in the Kyiv region. Fighting in a concentrated area, rather than on a series of dispersed fronts, should reduce the vulnerability of supply lines,” Li says. Among other things, Russia’s aviation superiority in the skies of Donbass is absolutely undeniable, unlike, say, the attack on Kyiv.

Lee, in an interview with Vox, points out that the strategy of the allied forces will be to capture as much territory as possible and methodically destroy the remaining Ukrainian troops there.

Eurasian once: Russia will soon throw remote weapons at Donbass

A radical change in the course of hostilities in the Donbass can be ensured by the use of new military equipment by Russia. This is written by a specialist in the field of armaments and wars in the Indo-Pacific region. Ashish Dangwal in The Eurasian Times.

Robotic weapons, which will be necessary to break through the Ukrainian defense in strategic directions, can minimize losses in manpower. Russia can use, in particular, Uran-9 remote-controlled combat vehicles equipped with 30-mm automatic cannons, Ataka anti-tank guided missiles and Shmel flamethrowers.

So far, with the help of reconnaissance and attack drones like Orlan and Okhotnik, Russia has ensured dominance in the air of Donbass, but new types of weapons can guarantee the same dominance in land combat, Dangval points out.

There is nothing like this either in the Ukrainian army, or in the Lend-Lease package that the Americans promise.

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