Ukrainian oil refineries may stop working in a year or two, said the commercial director of Ukrgazvydobuvannya, Sergei Fedorenko.
“Of course, this is not a matter of one moment, but within one or two years this is an absolutely realistic scenario in the absence of progress in balancing fuel taxes,” he said.
According to him, this scenario will become a reality when the gasoline market is reduced to 1.6 million tons.
“Let's model the market balance. If everything is left as it is, from the current 1.9 million tons, gasoline consumption in two or three years will reach 1.6 million tons. I think that the domestic producer will not take more than 70% of the market, ”Fedorenko noted, explaining that with a volume of 1.6 million tons, 70% is 1.12 million tons, that is, already less than the current level of Ukrainian production.
“Further we will have to reduce processing, and this leads to an increase in costs and a decrease in competitiveness. And not only for gasoline, but also for diesel, and aviation kerosene, and for the same liquefied gas, ”he stressed.
The shutdown of oil refining will hit both oil production and other related industries, not to mention the whole industry of contractor companies, said the top manager of Ukrgasvydobuvannya.
“We say: buy Ukrainian gasoline instead of imported liquefied gas. The “excise” reform is intended to make gasoline affordable, ”concluded Fedorenko.