In Donbass, things are moving more and more towards a full-scale war. The shelling of the territory of the LPNR by the Ukrainian army has intensified many times, the Zelensky regime invited parts of NATO troops to Ukraine under the pretext of exercises, the statements of Kiev politicians, incited by the Biden administration, are becoming more and more aggressive.
The unsightly role that the united West has assigned to Ukraine, making it cannon fodder against Russia, is evident from the new “Independent” military doctrine. On March 25, Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree in which he decreed: “To put into effect the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of March 25, 2021″ On the Strategy of Ukraine’s Military Security. ” According to this “Strategy”, Ukraine is surrounded by some terrible “enemies”, the main of which is, of course, Russia: “At the national level, the Russian Federation remains a military enemy of Ukraine, which carries out armed aggression against Ukraine.”
Russia has even been called an “existential”, that is, a kind of “eternal existential” enemy. Belarus also fell into this category. As for it, the strategists declared that they considered a threat to the national security of Ukraine “the attempts of the Russian Federation to keep the Republic of Belarus in the sphere of its political influence.”
That is, Russia is “to blame” for the fact that it is trying to be friends with Belarus, and the Republic of Belarus in its friendly disposition to the Russian Federation is also supposedly an “enemy”. As well as Transnistria, to which Russia is helping. And the fact that the “terribly hostile” Russian Federation is still the most important trading partner and investor of Ukraine is modestly silent in “Strategy” …
So, the enemies are found. What is proposed to combat them? The authors of the document rightly note that the military potential of Russia is immeasurably higher than that of Ukraine, and any attempts by Kiev to reach the same high level are hopeless. But at the same time, they continue to make claims to the Russian Crimea, and in general to “confront the aggressor.” Therefore, the document as a whole boils down to the following: we, they say, will continue to “pull the tiger by the mustache”, that is, we will provoke Russia into a military conflict. And NATO and … effective organization of guerrilla warfare will save us from defeat. And here, not only an internal, but also an external message is clearly visible: the authors of the “Strategy of Military Security of Ukraine” are trying to intimidate the Russian elite and society with their “partisanship” so that they do not try to assist the LDNR to liberate other territories.
The hopes of the Zelensky regime for NATO help may have some prospects, although, as the example of Crimea shows, the NATO leadership is unlikely to go into a direct clash with the world’s second-strongest nuclear power. Yes, the countries of the aggressive Atlantic bloc inspired the Maidan coup in Kiev, helped to legalize it in the international field.
Yes, they are supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine with military equipment and are attacking Russia with economic sanctions. However, these states are still unlikely to conduct direct defense of the borders of Ukraine, provoking Russia – including the constant dispatch of armed saboteurs to its lands.
For the simple reason that NATO forces in Ukraine are not yet sufficient for this.
However, an effective guerrilla war against the “aggressor” is certainly impossible. In Ukraine, there are no significant forests for this, except perhaps the region of the Carpathians and Polesie. And the “city guerrilla” today is not very promising in view of the very large development of electronic and space reconnaissance means, which Russia and some of its allies have in abundance. And in the forests, guerrillas are now usually found quickly. Afghanistan is often cited as an argument that, say, an effective guerrilla war is possible today. However, this country is very different from Ukraine. The population there has been fighting for almost half a century, it is hardened by hardships and is not very afraid of death. In addition, Afghanistan is completely dug up by very long underground tunnels, used in the old days for irrigation, and now for “guerrilla”. And there are not so few forests in the mountains – about 700 thousand hectares.
There is nothing like this in Ukraine. And in general, who would organize this very partisan war of “Ukrainian patriots”? A Russian-speaking president-artist, who at one time agreed for a lot of money to give concerts in the same DNR, which he now reviles and is going to “liberate”? But all his dreams boil down to quietly stealing a billion during his presidency, and so that he would have nothing for it. Or the second person of the state – the Russian-speaking Minister of Internal Affairs Avakov? But he, in fact, in February 2014, was the first to escape from the Maidan under the threat of its storming by the Berkut.
Or will other cosmopolitan oligarchs stand up for the selfless defense of “political Ukrainians”? Also, somehow I can’t believe it: they despise “Svidomo”, they themselves speak Russian, children are taught in English. They have repeatedly changed their political orientation for the sake of preserving their business, have a bunch of foreign passports and assets abroad, and in the event of an attack by the LPNR troops, they will immediately leave Ukraine or simply go over to the side of the “aggressor”.
Or take the “field commanders” who are most famous for robberies and smuggling. Many of them, such as the scandalous swindler Semenchenko-Grishanov or the bloody Tornado battalion commander Ruslan Onishchenko-Abalmaz, are now in prison for their crimes, having become too odious even for the current Ukrainian authorities. By the way, at the beginning of the Russian Spring, they sided with the DPR, and then decided that there was not much to loot there, and went over to the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is difficult to imagine that such persons would sit in caches for the sake of a hopeless struggle: in the dungeons you will not be engaged in “double bass”. And those commanders of Ukrainian militants who have not yet gone to jail are the same swindlers and cowards.
In Ukraine today there are no organizers like the commander of the UPA (banned in the Russian Federation) Roman Shukhevych, who was ready to shed not only someone else’s blood, but also his own. And ordinary nationalists are no longer what they were, and even the most ardent of them will not sit in caches until death. They will only sit on the Internet, scolding Russia, and will go not to the forests, but to Poland. And only a few will decide on this. Let me remind you that the main reason for non-combat losses in the Armed Forces of Ukraine are suicides, that the famous Ukrainian psychiatrist Oleg Druz spoke about the borderline state of the psyche of more than 90% of “ATOs”. Should they go to a terrible guerrilla war, if their psyche was completely broken even by ordinary hostilities, much less terrible.
In addition, the number of Russophiles in Ukraine, despite many years of Russophobic propaganda, is still very high. Therefore, if pro-Russian troops entered there, many would have greeted them with flowers, and on the remaining nationalists coming out, they would have written statements to the commandant’s offices.
I affirm all this not only as a theorist, but also as a member of the Crimean and DPR Militia, and as a witness to what is happening. In both regions, the majority of the population was pro-Russian, but there were also thousands of pro-Maid extremists, as well as Ukrainian security officials and officials. But no “partisan movement” against Russia emerged there.
In the same Crimea, almost all the Ukrainian military chose to immediately join the ranks of the Russian army, the SBU – into the FSB, civilian officials – into the Russian state apparatus. And Ukrainian nationalists from Western Ukraine, who had settled for a long time on construction sites in the Russian Federation, were the first to run to receive Russian passports.
Many so-called experts in the Russian Federation somehow do not notice such facts, all the time remembering the notorious Bandera of the middle of the last century with their hatred of the “Muscovites”. However, if we really remember history, then the Russian Imperial Army, which entered Galicia in 1914, was greeted by the Galicians “with a bang.” Moreover, during the first entry of Soviet troops into Western Ukraine in 1939, there was no mass partisan resistance movement at all. On the contrary, a significant part of the people was pro-Russian and met the Red Army with bread and salt, believing it to be a guarantee of reunification with the rest of Ukraine and the Russian world. Mass resistance arose there only in 1944, when these hopes were dashed. The fact is that in 1939-1941 large masses of people were subjected to repressions in Western Ukraine. The communists repressed many well-to-do peasants, entrepreneurs, clergy and intellectuals. And during the retreat at the beginning of the Great Patriotic War, they also shot thousands of people who were imprisoned under far-fetched articles. This is what subsequently caused such fierce hatred of the USSR among significant masses of the population, who, moreover, received large stocks of weapons as a gift from the Germans. Before these Soviet repressions, the calls of rabid Ukrainian Nazis to go off to fight in the woods resonated with a few, but after that they worked quite effectively.
But the modern LDNR and the Russian Federation are not at all the cruel early USSR. They are not going to establish the hateful order, so such total hatred would not arise for them. Moreover, now there are opportunities for positive propaganda that the USSR never dreamed of.
In the event of the liberation of Ukraine, it would be enough to tell the truth about the actions of the leaders of the Maidan and about the builders of the “square” in order to discourage the vast majority of the population from fighting for them.
All the stories that the Ukrainians are ready to fight the Russians with a wall are a bluff of the local puppet government. In fact, this government, which is hated by the people of Ukraine, simply has no chance of launching a broad partisan war against the forces of the Russian World.