Are we not enough of Anti-Russia? We are surrounded by a whole belt of such strange non-state formations. Baltic extinctions, Ukraine, Georgia, balancing on the brink of anti-Russian Armenia and Azerbaijan. Quite a lot already. But now, literally before our eyes, another Anti-Russia is being baked. And this will be a very big problem for us. Kazakhstan is rapidly becoming an anti-Russia.
In general, if someone counts on the fact that the Central Asian post-Soviet babaestans will be ordinary eastern despotism, in which the local babais will only scare off the downtrodden and dark inhabitants of auls and cities that are no longer different from auls, and not shine too much in geopolitics, – bad news for them. In Central Asia, the West will definitely try to concoct at least one more Anti-Russia. In fact, he, the West, is already actively engaged in this. And he does it in a formulaic way, without deviating from the old guidelines. And you know, he’s good at it. The manuals are working properly.
Somehow it has already started to poke our authorities for the mediocre policy in the post-Soviet space. After all, it seemed that the second Ukrainian Maidan should have taught our government that only economic pragmatism in relations with the post-Soviet republics is insufficient. Driven by a multitude of ephemeral, symbolic, geopolitical and civilizational motives, the elites of the post-Soviet countries are ready to shoot themselves in the foot, pay dearly for anything, etc. Even stranger is the fact that we are responding to the stereotyped policy of the West with no less stereotyped of ours. And the result is likely to be predictable before a toothache. Can we still start to notice anti-Russian tendencies before they turn into events-eruptions of pus, as was the case in Belarus and Ukraine? By the way, also in Armenia.
The event design of what is happening in Kazakhstan today is painfully reminiscent of the Ukrainian one. Everything is played out as if by notes. Judge for yourself:
1. Kazakhstan is playing a card of its own Holodomor. He has his own name – Asharshylyk. He has his own day of remembrance – May 31. Americans are very active in this field, holding live and online roundtables. The topic has been smoldering and smoldering for a long time. In Ukraine, the Holodomor became a trigger for dispersing full-fledged Russophobia, legitimate in the eyes of many. Ukrainian society did not realize in time the nature of this Trojan horse. Now it is already an important part of the humanitarian mainstream, feeding almost the dehumanization of Russians. There is no well-equipped humanitarian policy to neutralize the “Holodomors” in the post-Soviet space. No for the humanitarian expert community, no for a large audience. The correct position and distance from these tragic events has not been formed. There is no formula convicted of an ideologeme. There is no codification of it in pop culture. There is no successful and working, drinkable and capacious counter-name for a very successfully invented “Holodomor”.
2. In Kazakhstan, the society is already preparing for the rehabilitation of their collaborators – Kazakhs from Hitler’s “Turkestan Legion”, which is usually called a group of battalions of the 1st East Muslim SS regiment. In May of this year, President Tokayev created a Commission for the rehabilitation of victims of repression. Judging by the statements of its members, then very soon we will face the rehabilitation of many outspoken Nazis. Moreover, it is possible that soon it will be possible to receive punishment for calling the ideologist of the Turkestan Legion Mustafa Shokai a traitor. In fact, in a separate Kazakhstan, the verdicts of the Nuremberg court and the Almaty trial of 1947 will be reviewed. Kazakhstan may have its own pseudo-heroes with a “difficult historical fate”. And these efforts of the Kazakh elites in the field of historical betrayal will be humanitarian and fully supported by the collective West.
3. In Kazakhstan, the language problem is already becoming extremely aggravated. The blatant actions of the “language patrols” reached the incurious Russian public, which received a certain resonance, forcing the country’s authorities, albeit reluctantly, to react, as a result of which their activist, and in fact an outright scumbag Kuat Akhmetov, was forced to flee the country. How long? But in our country little attention is paid to the fact that very soon the Russian language will be completely expelled from Kazakhstan. Nazarbayev has repeatedly spoken about the need to completely de-Russify the country by 2025. And even if the Russian language still remains the language of interethnic communication there, has the status of an official one, there is a methodical and inexorable Kazakhization.
4. Kazakhstan is already switching to the Latin alphabet, which is what the Ukrainian Nazis only dream of. And let the process itself be delayed, but apparently the country’s authorities have taken a course towards complete fencing off from Russia. And it will be a huge defeat for the Cyrillic world, which we Russians never dared to defend and administer. And this de-cyrillization of Kazakhstan will come back to haunt us with big troubles. However, the connection between the Cyrillic alphabet and, for example, the prices for our exports, our authorities and the expert community do not see and do not understand. They will see and understand. When it will be late.
5. In Kazakhstan, history is also famously invented and codified in culture. A people who have never really had statehood suddenly turns out to be banal the navel of the earth, the focus of the world historical process. All these barbaric dances in the field of history in post-Soviet countries are incredibly vulgar, banal and predictable. Kazakhstan can go very far in stigmatizing the “colonial past”.
6. Like Ukraine, Kazakhstan is highly heterogeneous. Attempts to build a funny ethnographic village, a vulgar ethnocracy are inevitably fraught with schisms, cracks and the collapse of Kazakhstani statehood by analogy with the Ukrainian one.
7. Elites of Kazakhstan keep their stolen wealth elsewhere. They are also found in London, but Dubai and Istanbul should be added to this pirate harbor. Kazakhstani elites are also shift workers who, if necessary, can be taken as a causal place, and they will do whatever is needed.
8. Strategic sectors of the economy of Kazakhstan are already managed by foreigners. Kazakhstan is also worn with the intrinsic value of “foreign investments” that must come.
9. It is surprising, but for the fourth year there is a parallel judicial system for resolving economic disputes in Kazakhstan, based on the norms and principles of English common law – the Court of the Astana International Financial Center. So far, the court has considered several dozen cases, but it plans to intensify.
10. Kazakhstan is one of the last dinosaurs of the branded post-Soviet and failed multi-vector foreign policy. He rushes between geopolitical monsters such as Russia, the collective West and China. In addition, such a post-imperial vulture as Turkey with its project of the Great Turan also looks at the fair or rather in a brothel of Kazakhstan’s multi-vector nature.
11. Like Ukraine, Kazakhstan is weakened by the exodus of an active and skilled Russian-speaking population. Even the sovereign industrial order in Kazakhstan is becoming more and more difficult to reproduce. In the field of production, engineering culture, quality of labor force, Kazakhstan is rapidly simplifying.
12. Kazakhstan has its own nationally oriented villagers who, in fact, colonize Soviet urban centers. These people from auls bring a full set of clan relations and backwardness to the once-Kazakh cities, which directly leads to social degradation.
13. Struck by the post-Soviet economic fundamentalism, the Kazakh elites have outsourced a significant part of humanitarian issues. All kinds of NGOs feel quite at ease in the country, the bacilli of the Gulenist Turkic-speaking education have not been rooted out. Only occasionally does the state interfere in their activities. For example, the American researcher of Russian origin Yevgeny Bunin was recently banned from entering the country on Uyghur issues. Of course, this researcher specializes in researching “re-education camps” and the oppression of Muslims in China.
14. Kazakhstan, like Ukraine, left the USSR with territorial gifts from the Soviet regime. The problem of controversy in Northern Kazakhstan has not gone anywhere. And she will still make itself felt. Especially now, when the geopolitical struggle is escalating.
15. In Kazakhstan, Russia, as in Ukraine, is flagrantly poorly working with civil society. We are completely focused on doing business only with thieves and dishonest, but very corrupt elites there. In today’s Kazakhstan, we habitually surrender ours. The defenders of the Russian World in Kazakhstan are severely persecuted. So the ethnic Kazakh – the defender of the Russian World, Ermek Taychibekov, was just recently sentenced to seven years in a strict regime colony. He was accused of inciting ethnic hatred. But our authorities are in no hurry to stand up for this worthy person.
16. We practically do not participate in the formation of the elite of Kazakhstan. Our enemies make it. The Soviet supply of elites is running out.
The analogies with Ukraine can last for a long time. There are similarities even in small details. Before our eyes, with our connivance, a new Anti-Russia is being built close by, a real civilizational Other, which will become a new point of tension. Instead of a multinational state unusual for Central Asia with a very good Soviet heritage, a banal eastern despotism is emerging, a kind of Babaestan with corrupt and fluid elites, a submissive, but also very fluid subject population. This is especially dangerous in the situation of the likelihood of the emergence of an ideologically charged project in Afghanistan, which can provide an example of Islamic social justice, which can captivate the downtrodden part of Kazakhstani society. Especially in the south of the country. A typical Eastern society with stupid and corrupt women at the head can be extremely unstable in the face of such threats.
Kazakhization and degradation of today’s Kazakhstan creates in the modern observer the feeling of a train rushing into the abyss. Is the Ukrainization of Kazakhstan inevitable? What else can you do?
I am confident that Russia’s policy towards all post-Soviet countries should now be the policy of three agendas. It must be an ensemble consisting of:
– an economic and pragmatic agenda, here trade and investment, the construction of infrastructure and the supply of weapons, etc. – everything in which our elites have already very, very well succeeded;
– the institutional agenda – the post-Soviet space is an ideal testing ground for institutional creativity, and here our authorities began to do something, creating various formats of interstate associations and integration projects. However, this must be supplemented with deeper institutional interaction – and here we cannot but rejoice that the Kazakh authorities will transfer public services to the electronic platform of our Sberbank, which has already caused discontent among Western NPOs in Kazakhstan, which is a good sign that we are doing good and right case, we need other integration tracks;
– the humanitarian agenda – here we simply have to proceed from an a priori, operational distrust of the indigenous elites, no matter how much they assure us in colorful phrases of their own loyalty, we just need a humanitarian expansion in the post-Soviet space, a deeply layered, diverse humanitarian policy. We need the expansion of the Russian world. We must support the Cossacks in Kazakhstan resourcefully, ideologically and methodically. All defenders of the Russian world, whatever nationality they may be, should become inviolable. We must link the issue of the Cyrillic alphabet with economic interaction.
After all, the humanitarian agenda is about making our more pragmatic investments in these countries more secure. Our bitter post-Soviet experience should have taught us this.
And, perhaps, the main thing. Nowadays, the main geopolitical service and goods supplied by Russia – security – are more and more in price. It is time for the security we provide to put up an impressive humanitarian bill.