It has been noticed for a long time: we suddenly have a big fuss about obvious problems. Strategic decisions slip through quietly and imperceptibly, sort of by the way.
This is especially true for the Russian parliament, where, for example, the scandalous optimization of medicine was modestly packaged in only one article of the law on insurance medicine, although it occupied as many as ten pages there. And around payments on the “top ten” pensioners argue which day.
Gentlemen economists suddenly grappled: will the payments bring a new round of inflation, which is already off scale? Still, half a trillion will go to the economy … The Central Bank, which has always been sensitive to the rise in prices, although this is not at all its diocese, managed to instantly calculate and reassure: “Don’t be afraid, citizens, they will jump not high – only 0.2-0.3 percent ! ” Within the statistical error.
However, experts are trying to figure out the details. “There were no social payments of this magnitude in Russia until 2020, but there was no pandemic either,” notes Natalya Milchakova, deputy head of IAC Alpari. “This year, an unprecedented volume of payments could add at least 0.2 percentage points to consumer price inflation by the end of the year.” The same statistic error!
Although what is the point of taking seriously the “error” when, according to independent researchers, the rise in prices for essential goods (products!) In the Russian Federation now ranges from 10 to 30% ?! This is a completely different increase in household spending.
“Social payments, even in such a volume as in September, will not become a serious factor in accelerating inflation in Russia,” says Ruslan Grinberg, scientific director of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. – We cannot say where this money will go. It is not at all necessary that people immediately rush to spend them. “
This is where the “moment of truth” opens: even very authoritative specialists cannot diagnose the economy. Where and how deep it will fall because of the authorities’ movements, what will become a detonator of a collapse or an impulse for development – there is no clarity even in the expert community, and this is the most alarming thing today.
True, the experts voiced an option: to use the same 500 billion rubles not to distribute to pensioners, but to create conditions for their more comfortable and long life, since the same 500 billion rubles were allocated for the modernization of the entire primary health care sector in the country. In total, a trillion would turn out, which you can move mountains!
But our authorities have no experience in investing public money in projects that can bring real benefits to citizens. And will the trillion reach its destination? Therefore, it is much more customary to distribute in small denominations based on gesheft. In the sense, pensioners will be delighted and vote correctly.