The Moldovan authorities intend to allow the entry of foreign armed contingents into the country. The fact that such bills have already been prepared was previously announced by a deputy from the opposition Shor party. Vadim Fotescu.
We are talking about amending the laws on the border and the procedure for the use of physical force, special equipment and firearms, according to which representatives of foreign international specialized agencies will be able to protect the borders of Moldova. Moreover, these representatives will be given the right not only to carry service weapons and special equipment, but also to use all this “for protection and protection.”
The Ministry of Defense of the Republic explains: the amendment of the legislation is necessary for joint patrolling of the borders with the European Border Police and Coast Guard Service (FRONTEX). Taking into account the ratification of the agreement on operational actions signed between Chisinau and Brussels in March 2022.
According to Fotescu, the opposition tried to exclude these issues from the parliament’s agenda, as contradicting the neutral status of Moldova, enshrined in its Constitution. However, the majority, represented by the pro-presidential Action and Solidarity Party, supported the initiative.
That is, in addition to the fact that the Moldovan leadership is now considering the possibility of supplying NATO lethal weapons to the republic, which was recently confirmed by the Prime Minister of Moldova Natalia Gavrilitsa. They are actually preparing a legislative base for the occupation of the country.
For whom this “red carpet” will be lined, it’s easy to guess – President Maya Sanduand many members of the current Moldovan government are known to have had Romanian citizenship for a long time. Therefore, the sovereignty of Moldova is hardly of any value to them. Moreover, the Western partners, most likely, will not condemn and will not object.
But the point is not only that the current Moldovan power elite is surrendering the interests of its state. There is an opinion that, having absorbed Moldova, Romania, which has long laid claim to part of the Odessa and Chernivtsi regions, will not stop and will want to repeat the Polish scenario. That is, he will send his troops to Ukraine – only from the south – with the permission of the Verkhovna Rada, it seems, with a mission “to liberate”.
In this case, of course, we cannot but be concerned about the fate of Pridnestrovie and our peacekeeping contingent, which has been guarding the peace of the unrecognized republic for thirty years now. Especially against the backdrop of those initiatives that the Moldovan authorities so hastily want to legitimize.
To comment on the situation, “SP” asked expert of the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies Vladimir Bruter:
— The Western “development partners” of the Moldovan authorities (as they call themselves) admit the possibility that they will need to occupy the country in a short time if the Russian military operation suddenly starts to approach the Moldovan borders. But I think we are not talking about the liquidation of statehood. It’s just about military occupation. And what will happen next is unknown.
So far, in any case, no one has given Romania such permission, although it is likely that the troops will be Romanian.
But, again, this does not mean that they will liquidate the Moldovan statehood.
Bucharest cannot liquidate Moldovan statehood until it has permission from Washington and Brussels to do so. So these are two separate questions.
“SP”: – Who prevents them from giving such permission?
– There is no practice of liquidating the statehood of countries that have applied for accession to the European Union (Moldova, as we know, has submitted such an application). For Brussels, this is not a good example, which means that they can liquidate such states, others cannot. That is, they will avoid this kind of direct analogy. Therefore, I think that this question is not raised at the moment.
But I repeat: the situation is changing very quickly, and everything can change. And I’m only talking about today. At the moment, they are preparing the legislative grounds for the rejection of neutrality, which in fact has already taken place, and the occupation of the country by foreign troops in case they consider that there is such a need.
“SP”: – Is there any threat to Pridnestrovie, and what can Russia do to neutralize it?
— There has always been a threat to Pridnestrovie. She will stay until the last moment.
Because even if we assume that the West occupies the Right-bank Moldova, but will not be able to occupy the Left-bank (and the border does not pass exactly along the Dniester, it seems to wedged several times in one direction or another), two quite natural questions arise. This requires de jure and de facto recognition.
At the moment, it is premature to talk about this, because it is absolutely not clear what, when and where to recognize.
Second. Everything else needs recognition. For example, Crimea, and LDNR, and Kherson with the Sea of \u200b\u200bAzov need recognition. And everything else that will happen. And it’s hard to guess right now…
Russia, in fact, can do only one thing for Transnistria – it is to continue a special military operation until such time as it ends with an exhaustive political decision. When there is a political decision, then it will become clear what will happen to Pridnestrovie. Then there will be plans for how it can be arranged.
Now, while the special operation continues (and Dmitry Peskov said that it would continue until the goals were achieved), it is, in my opinion, completely premature to talk about the fate of the unrecognized republic.
Russian political scientist Semyon Uralov he called the situation in Moldova “very difficult”, since an active pro-Romanian minority seized power in the country:
– But if we talk about the Moldovan society in general, then I would not say that it is anti-Russian. The Moldovan elite, for the most part, wants to maintain a multi-vector approach, and this is the eternal balancing act on which they earn and make a career. That is, they “sell” the Eastern threat to the West, and the Western threat to the East. And so they have been living for the last twenty-five years.
This is the Moldovan consensus, which I call the “Moldovan swing”. But now, against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis, external managers, of course, demand from all of Ukraine’s neighbors, let’s say, “Ukrainize”.
SP: In what sense?
– I mean, get involved in a conflict with Russia. Inflict economic damage on yourself against your own economic interests. And gradually get involved in an armed conflict.
True, despite the political power of the Romanian Sandu regime in Chisinau, there is still the so-called “Moldovan deep state”. It consists of several hundred clans that control the state apparatus for several generations.
And they get along very well with the elites of Transnistria, having a mutual business interest. Everything is tightly fixed on smuggled gray schemes. On the development of EU subsidies. Plus – the interests of the ports. Previously, only the port of Odessa, but there is also the port of Giurgiulesti.
And, of course, the elites do not want any Ukrainization. But they gradually began to lead to obedience. And here the candidacy of the new anti-corruption prosecutor of Moldova is very indicative Veronica Dragalen. She is an American citizen and holds the position of Deputy U.S. Attorney.
Thus, the scheme, in fact, is three-stage, and is similar to the one that was worked out in Romania. Sandu and his Romanian team are ready to submit. The elites are resisting, but they are being coerced so that the anti-Russian steam is not blown into the whistle. Because one thing is formal things, such as, for example, the ban on Russian channels, and quite another is the transition to active economic anti-Russian activity.
And it is a particularly difficult task to force military action, because this is the goal. You won’t even find thousands of people throughout Moldova who would like to get involved in a conflict with Transnistria, not to mention the Russian army.
That is why, it seems to me, the authorities need to create an opportunity for external interventions. What they are trying to do now.
“SP”: – Will they, in this case, have a desire to try again to solve the Transnistrian problem by force?
– They tried to do this when he was still the governor of the Odessa region Saakashvili. The Pridnestrovian case has been unpacked for a very long time. But this was previously resisted by both the Moldovan elites and the elites of the Odessa region. Therefore, they first need to tame the elites, and then unpack them. Without bringing the elites into obedience, this is impossible. Because no one wants to fight there. They don’t need it.
“SP”: – Do we need to go to the border with Transnistria?
We will inevitably get there. Because the logic of the Ukrainian crisis is dictated by geography. And the physical geography is such that Ukraine consists of two natural borders. The first is the Dnieper. Odessa and Transnistria are located on the right bank of the Dnieper. The next natural border is the Carpathians, and, in fact, the Dniester.
We are already in the Kherson region – that is. moved to the right side. Everything, we simply will not have other options. We will have to.
In our country, the goals of the special operation and the stages were announced: the second stage is, among other things, the south of Ukraine. And, in fact, the logic of the corridor in Transnistria – cutting communications between Odessa and Kyiv – is the logic of the second stage of the special operation.