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Oct 18, 2021
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Tokyo, building up its military power, threatens a preemptive strike on Russia and China

Tokyo, building up its military power, threatens a preemptive strike on Russia and China

Photo: AP / TASS

In full sparks now in the Pacific region, not only with threats and statements by politicians, but also a real pulling together of forces. A number of countries in the region are demonstrating their military might both alone and in alliance with their partners.

The UK, the US and Australia have created AUKUS to cool China’s ardor in the South China Sea. Beijing and Moscow are conducting joint naval maneuvers. In Japan, they believe they need a strong nuclear fleet, strategic nuclear weapons and cruise missiles. From this “rattling of steel muscles” is already ringing in the ears.

The Prime Minister of Japan also added fuel to the fire Fumio Kishida, who announced that the Japanese military, probably in the future, will be able to deliver preemptive strikes against the missile bases of a potential enemy. In addition to North Korea and China, this “call” from Tokyo can also be addressed to Russia. Are the samurai going to war again?

For example, a Russian political scientist is convinced of this. Evgeny Satanovsky, which emphasizes that all the latest statements of the Japanese politician can be interpreted as preparations for war. He urged to work out all the scenarios of the conflict with Tokyo – from a limited clash near the Kuril Islands, to an attack on Russian military facilities in the Far East and a “total war of destruction.”

What are the real threats to Russia after the militaristic rhetoric of Prime Minister Kishida? Many analysts believe that Japan in the shortest possible time, from several months to a year, is able to multiply its military power.

Helicopter carriers available in the Japanese Navy (for example, the 16DDH Hyuga ship with a displacement of 18,000 tons) can be easily converted into aircraft carriers by erecting a take-off ramp.

Without abandoning the American program for the construction of fifth-generation F-35 fighters (about 190 aircraft in total), the Japanese are bringing to mind their Mitsubishi F-3 fighter, which promises to be more perfect and, which is also important, much cheaper than its American counterpart.

It is also a recognized fact that Japanese anti-ship missiles are superior to their American counterparts. Another confirmation of this is the declared increase in the range of ASM-3 missiles to 400 kilometers, which can be used both in the “surface-to-ship”, “ship-to-ship” and “air-to-ship” class when deployed on patrol and fighter aircraft.

That is, a purely defensive doctrine of Japan, which provides that security from the threat of external aggression to the Land of the Rising Sun is provided by the US troops, whose numerous bases have been officially located here since 1957, and the Japanese are only protecting the islands themselves.

Now the publication Yahoo News Japan emphasizes that Tokyo alone is capable of creating the most advanced weapons. “If a war breaks out with Russia and China, the Japanese army will rely only on itself, there is no need to expect help from the United States, they will simply leave. Washington is likely to do the same as in Afghanistan, ”the newspaper notes.

Tokyo has long wanted to acquire its own cruise missiles capable of reaching North Korea and China. In terms of the range of destruction, they may well pose a danger not only to the so-called disputed islands, but also to the mainland of Russia.

– Does Tokyo want war? Let’s start with an educational program, – shares his opinion political scientist and historian Alexander Zimovsky. “Sincerely striving for an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people will forever renounce war as the nation’s sovereign right and the threat or use of military force as a means of settling international disputes.” This is Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution.

Naturally, even our Kozma Prutkov taught that all constitutions are despised when military ammunition clangs. Why should Japan also be an exception in this sense? Two aspects remain – historical and political.

From a historical point of view, the concept of “World War III” can be safely attributed to the field of semantics. Are you trying to answer, what kind of war would any hypothetical nuclear exchange between just two relatively small countries with nuclear weapons become? By the way, Japan has no nuclear weapons. All its probable opponents have plenty of atomic bombs. Which, as it were, hints to us what the final game will be like for Japan, which was launched by a Japanese preemptive strike on some of the enemy’s missile bases. But perhaps Japan believes that things are not so bad, and under certain conditions it is worth trying.

Is a “tragic accident” possible here? Yes, it is possible. This was the case with the Russo-Japanese War. This war, who does not know, was in 1904-1905, and at the same time the clashed empires fought not even for their own territory, but for someone else’s, for Korean and Chinese (Manchu); and the foam from the war, in the form of the Nobel Peace Prize, was removed by the then American leader Teddy Roosevelt

And from what episode the mentioned war began. There were frictions, but surmountable, in any case, future enemies tried not to lead to sin. And in early February 1904, the commander of the Russian Port Arthur (First Pacific) squadron, Vice Admiral Oscar Viktorovich Stark brought her out to sea in full force.

The squadron for training purposes maneuvered for 24 hours on the abeam of the Shandong lighthouse in the Bohai Strait and returned to the roadstead of Port Arthur, from where the nearest Japanese naval base was then and now about 600 nautical miles. Far enough for a surprise attack by the Russians. But on February 4, this becomes known in Tokyo.

On February 6, 1904, the Japanese Empire announced the severance of diplomatic relations with the Russian Empire. There is no declaration of war. Meanwhile, the Japanese fleet leaves its bases and on the night of February 8-9, it suddenly attacks Russian ships. The Russian tsar declares war on the Japanese emperor. Later they will say that it was Admiral Stark’s exit to the sea that provoked everything.

In 37 years, the situation will repeat itself in Pearl Harbor.

The topic of a preemptive strike is well developed and studied by the Japanese military and naval headquarters school. There is experience of successful application.

Now the political aspect. Another former prime minister of Japan Shinzo Abe the first, in September last year, to speak out on the topic of a preemptive strike, and by no means the new prime minister Fumio Kishida. The nuances are important here, since euphemisms are of great importance in the Japanese political language.

Japan’s new military approach is described as “creating the ability to organize the neutralization of offensive weapons held by the enemy.” Kishida, as Abe’s successor, and in the past the Minister of Finance of Japan, participated in promoting the program of the corresponding “re-armament” of Japan and organizing its financing.

Now the Japanese are busy creating and putting into service high-performance radars for detecting targets using non-standard flight paths. Japan is independently developing long-range cruise missiles as a deterrent. They are preparing to replace F-2 fighters with new F-3s, which will be invisible to the enemy’s technical means. And the Japanese also opted for a naval missile defense system.

They abandoned the American land program Aegis Ashore, but increased the number of their destroyers equipped with the American Baseline 9 / Ballistic Missile Defense system and the Cooperative Engagement Capability system (the naval version of the Aegis) to eight units. I leave the assessment of these and other combat capabilities of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to specialized experts.

We will refresh our memory the thesis “the goal of the war is the post-war world order.” Japanese territorial disputes include not only Russia (Kuril Islands), but also South Korea (Takeshima / Dokdo archipelago) and China (Senkaku / Diaoyu archipelago) as the main contenders. Even the most determined pacifists would not venture to say that Japan has historically made many friends in the East Pacific. From which it follows that, when starting a war, you should foresee where you will end it. Admirals of Togo and Yamamoto there were great naval commanders, but why break the kotatsu?

As for the Third World War, everyone is talking about it. Then the newspaper “Ze San” imprints infographics with the places where everything will begin (here and Kashmir, and the Strait of Hormuz, and Turkey with Syria, and Iran with Israel, and the United States and North Korea). And also the South China Sea, and China and America because of Taiwan (province of China) are waving aircraft carriers in front of each other. How can Japan in this situation not declare something so preventive? Has the right to. For did not the wise warrior Musashi Miyamoto say: “When the state of the opposing troops is not clear, pretend that you are launching a powerful attack – and you will reveal their tactics.”

As for the statements of the Japanese Prime Minister Kishida about possible preventive strikes, they are considered even by international law as a response to the already inevitable aggression of any other country. And if, for example, the Russian leadership receives information that a massive nuclear or other strike will take place in the near future, then it has the right to launch a preemptive strike, and this will not be the first to use nuclear weapons. Well, then everything will depend only on whose ballistic missiles are faster and more accurate. So Russia also has the right to a preemptive strike.

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