On the ICE Futures exchange on September 15, the cost of the October futures on the TTF spot index at the moment reached € 79 per 1,000 kWh, which was equivalent to $ 926 per 1,000 cubic meters. m. Yesterday (September 22) trading ended at € 69 per 1,000 kWh, or in gas equivalent of $ 841 per 1,000 cubic meters. m. Such a sharp decline has only one explanation: Russia, despite the frenzied Russophobia of a number of European politicians and the threat of European commissioners “Destroy Nord Stream 2”, decided to warm up old Europe.
Gas prices went down after it became known that the Cabinet of Ministers of the Russian Federation is ready “As an experiment, allow Rosneft to export 10 billion cubic meters of gas a year to Europe through Gazprom’s export transit facilities”… This follows from the draft report of the Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novakwho lay on the table to the president To Putin…
It is clear that Brussels wants more, calling these 10 billion cubic meters a mere mere crumbs against the background of 139 billion cubic meters exported as a monopolist. We will return to the numbers a little later, but another point is important here.
Although Rosneft and Gazprom are considered Kremlin companies, they have Western shareholders, whose interests the EU and the US will defend by hook or by crook. But this is not all the disadvantages. The two biggest Russian energy monsters have their own interests, their own lobbyists and their own noble protectors. By and large, they are competitors, and when the price swing begins to swing in the other direction, the emergence of Rosneft as a gas supplier may cost our country dearly.
But this is not the most important thing either. Yes, many in the West are convinced that Russia is deliberately holding back gas, allegedly thereby pushing Europe towards the soonest certification of the SP-2. However, there are other opinions as well. In particular, Nafiz Ahmed, a highly respected expert at the Anglia Ruskin University Institute for Global Sustainability, considers Russia a dying energy Goliath.
Let’s leave this comparison on his conscience, but the truth is that the available oil and gas fields are becoming less and less available not only in the world, but also in our country. In other words, the increase in exports under the current conditions is essentially the theft of irreplaceable resources from our children, not to mention our grandchildren. Nafiz Ahmed refers to Russian sources that oil production in the Russian Federation most likely peaked in 2019 and will probably never reach that level again. Only a fall or stagnation lies ahead.
Whatever it was, but Russia will definitely have enough years for fifty energy resources, which cannot be said about old Europe. Thus, the most recent energy analysis of London experts showed that in the UK, taking into account the current indicators of domestic consumption of coal, there is only ten years left and natural gas for five years. In theory, the British could increase the production of blue fuel this fall, albeit to the detriment of the medium term, but, Mother Russia, they demand supplies from her through the Ukrainian gas transportation system.
The picture is about the same in other EU countries. In other words, the gas crisis that broke out did not arise out of the blue, but took shape over decades. It’s just that earlier the European commissioners managed to breed Russian rulers for cheap blue fuel. But now the factors have converged that laid bare this Brussels bluff.
Plus, according to Nafiz Ahmed, in the UK, electricity production from offshore wind has disappointed consumers. The mythical god Boreas has recently been blowing not the way the “greens” would like: now he has a nightmare with hurricanes (then the wind generators are blocked), then he is lazy until it is completely calm.
Forecasters attribute wind instability to climate warming. As they say, separate greetings to the special envoy Chubais, which is worn in windmills, like a Jew with a written sack.
But in the summer in Europe, it becomes unusually hot, which in 2021 led to a record electricity generation for air conditioners. In short, the local comfort fans did not want to languish from the heat, so they burned gas from underground storages. In the end it turned out like in a fable Krylova: “Jumping dragonfly sang red summer, did not have time to look back, as winter rolls into my eyes”…
Meanwhile, France predicts the collapse of the EU until 2036, if the shortage of energy resources not only persists, but also increases by at least 20% of the current level. A special report from the Fifth Republic’s Ministry of Defense says that the French and British will go to the barricades because of unheated apartments and houses. All this will plunge the Old World into unprecedented political upheavals.
But is Russia to blame for this, as the failed US president wrote in her book? Hillary Clinton? The adequate expert community in the EU states: “no”. The story of Nord Stream 2 does not affect gas supplies from Russia at all.
According to the business news agency Bloomberg, Russia’s own reserves for domestic consumption in early September were below average. Yes, now supplies to the EU are 80% of last year’s maximums and fit into the indicators of long-term contracts, but only because Gazprom pumps blue fuel into its own storage facilities.
“The reason for the sudden domestic gas famine in Russia was also linked to climate change. The unusually cold temperatures in the winter of 2020 and the heat wave in the summer of 2021 have led to a sharp increase in domestic gas consumption “Ruskin, an expert at the Institute for Global Sustainability at the University of England, notes.
And in the future, domestic gas consumption in the Russian Federation will grow by 7.5% over the next five years, which means that exports to the EU will decrease by the same amount, and without prejudice to the financial stability of the monopolist. It follows from this that the current restrictions on Russian exports, which Europe is facing today, will happen on a regular basis.
Now the question arises, where is the promised liquefied gas from the United States? And here, again, the changed climate is to blame, although it was not without big politics. Droughts in Brazil reduced hydropower production, which also boosted LNG demand.
Faced with the choice of who is more dear to Uncle Sam – the EU or the Country of Carnivals, Washington turned its back on Brussels in the direction of its Latin American ally. It turns out that the doctrine of Montreux is not only the spread of the Stars and Stripes influence in South America, but also a commitment to it. In short, the Yankees were very sensitive to the wishes of the Brazilians and began to redirect 1.5 billion cubic meters per month for gas thermal power plants in Rio de Janeiro and Brasilia. In total, the Europeans lost 17 billion cubic meters, 10 of which will soon be covered by Rosneft, it seems.
True, it is not entirely clear why Moscow needs this if Washington is foaming at the mouth that the Russians are using “gas weapons” against the Europeans and Ukrainians. Wouldn’t it have been easier to point the finger at a political deceiver? No matter how it turns out that in its desire to please the West and thereby save the face of the United States, the Kremlin will overdo it and leave Russians without warmth this winter, which is predicted to be very cold.