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Jan 8, 2022
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“Those who do not surrender will be destroyed!” How will the introduction of CSTO troops in Kazakhstan end?

Kazakhs clash with police during a protest in Aktobe, Kazakhstan.  January 5, 2022.

26 people were killed last night in Kazakhstan, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Among the dead were law enforcement officers, some of whom were found with their heads cut off. The counter-terrorist operation regime in the republic is preserved. Shootings are going on in Almaty. The authorities said that the city was attacked by “20 thousand militants.” President Tokayev said that everyone who does not surrender will be destroyed. Meanwhile, the military contingent of the CSTO countries is being brought into the country.

The building of the mayor's office, which was burned by Kazakhs during the riots in Alma-Ata (Kazakhstan).  06.01.2022.

“I gave the order to shoot to kill”

“What kind of negotiations can there be with criminals, with bandits? They need to be destroyed. This will be done in the near future, “the President of Kazakhstan said in his next address to the people. Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev.

According to him, he ordered the army to open fire to kill terrorists participating in the riots in Kazakhstan. “Terrorists continue to damage state and private property and use weapons against citizens. I gave the order to law enforcement agencies and the army to open [огонь] to defeat without warning, ”he said. “It is critically important to understand why the state ‘slept through’ the underground preparations for terrorist attacks by the sleeping cells of the militants. Only 20 thousand bandits attacked Almaty ”.

Separately, in his address, Tokayev also touched on the fate of those who did not come out to the square, but supported them from home. In Kazakhstan, they will imprison not only those who took part in the protest, but also those who supported the protesters on the Internet. According to the president, retaliation awaits those who express their opinions on the Internet. No one will get away from reckoning.

“Whoever does not surrender will be destroyed,” summed up Tokayev.

What is the current situation in Kazakhstan?

Conventionally, all regions of Kazakhstan can now be divided into three types – those where the government retains power, those where protesters seized it, and those where complete anarchy is now observed.

Calm now in the capital of Kazakhstan, Nur-Sultan. There are checkpoints at the entrances to the city, it’s not easy to enter and leave there now. Security at the presidential palace has been increased. There are a lot of armored vehicles in the city, and people are sweeping everything from store shelves, fearing a shortage of food in the near future.

They sweep everything off the shelves in Almaty. True, they do not pay for “purchases” there. The city was in the grip of protesters and looters for several days. Media correspondents located in the city broadcast post-apocalyptic footage – everywhere burned cars and state institutions, shooting, looters.

“Corpses lie right on the avenues,” says the special correspondent of Komsomolskaya Pravda Vladimir Vorsobin… – One is sitting in a car that got on the road, a bullet pierced the man’s neck. One corpse lies right by the square. They covered him with a tarp. The rest, they say, have already been taken apart by relatives.

According to him, in the evening the army, brought into the city, opened fire on a small meeting. Its participants held posters “We are not terrorists! Take away the army! ” At first they fired blanks, then began to shoot with combat ones. “Some have managed to leave, some have not. Interestingly, the protesters themselves have already begun to renounce pogromists, marauders and extremists in the general mass of “revolutionaries”, stigmatizing them as a shameful element. They believe that it was necessary to shoot them, and not all indiscriminately. But how to separate an honest Carbonari from a marauder and a murderer, ”the journalist asks.

In the west of the country, in those regions where protests erupted on January 2, power has passed to the protesters. They control government agencies and infrastructure. In Zhanaozen, protesters continue to demand a regime change even after Tokayev’s threats. Now, according to local journalists, a council of aksakals is being formed in Zhanaozen – local self-government is beginning to be organized, which is not controlled by Nur-Sultan.

Who is behind the protest?

Meanwhile, on January 5, the “leader” of the protests appeared in France. The former head of Bank Turan Alem, who fled from Kazakhstan, declared himself to them. Mukhtar Ablyazov… “Every day the protesters call me and ask: ‘What should we do? We are standing here: what should we do? ” – he told reporters. According to him, Kazakhstan is currently in a geopolitical game. “In the event that the West does not enter the battle, then the Russian Federation will force the Central Asian republic to submit to the type of the restored Soviet Union,” Ablyazov is sure. “Our goal is the complete overthrow of the Nazarbayev regime. The people who are leaving now are a single exclamation: down with Nazarbayev, down with his regime. We will try to put him in prison during his lifetime, ”he said.

We add that the banker is wanted in Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine on charges of embezzling $ 5 billion (about £ 3.5 billion) from a Kazakh bank. He tried to obtain refugee status in the UK, but there he was sentenced to 22 months in prison for contempt of court. In the course of lengthy trials, a British judge described Ablyazov as “a remarkable and arrogant liar under oath.” The banker did not wait for the execution of the sentence and fled to France.

Ablyazov was the “leader of the protests” for one day. Already on January 6, in the studio of the Polish Belsrat, he made a statement that he had nothing to do with the protests.

Meanwhile, interesting events began to take place in Kiev. This is how the SBU officers came to the activists of Ablyazov’s Democratic Choice party. According to the activists, they were subjected to violence, knocked out their teeth, after which they were taken to the police station and forced to sign papers on the termination of any political activity related to Kazakhstan on the territory of Ukraine. Kazakh oppositionists fear that they might be deported to their homeland. “They will torture us there,” they declare.

It is difficult to say how great Ablyazov’s role in the protests is. However, political analysts familiar with the situation in Kazakhstan believe that someone is behind the protests. “I don’t believe for a minute in the self-organization of the ‘Kazakh people’,” said the Russian political strategist Peter Miloserdov. – The Kazakhs simply do not have such experience. None at all. The maximum that these masses are capable of is participating in an organized pogrom, as was the case in 1986, when the local elite decided to show their teeth in Moscow. All recent “excesses” such as “language patrols” or beatings of the Dungans were clearly inspired “from above”. I think that these events also have customers and organizers (including in the middle level). “

The Russian Foreign Ministry also believes that it was not without foreign intervention. “We regard the recent events as an attempt by force, using trained and organized armed formations, to undermine the security and integrity of the state, inspired from the outside,” they said.

Police and military equipment on the street in Almaty.

Why did the CSTO send troops to Kazakhstan?

On January 6, the CSTO made a decision to send troops to Kazakhstan “in order to stabilize and normalize the situation” in the country. This was stated by the Prime Minister of Armenia, chairing the CSTO Nicole Pashinyan… This contingent included Armenian, Belarusian, Kyrgyz, Tajik and Russian units. They will have to guard military facilities in the country, as well as important infrastructure. They have already taken control of the Almaty airport.

There is no information that these troops are being used to cleanse the cities from pogromists, but many opponents of the Kremlin have already rushed to accuse Moscow of “intervention” in Kazakhstan. For example, this was stated by the head of the Kazakh diaspora in Moscow. Polat Jamalov“Judging by the posts that I read in our groups, the decision to send soldiers there is especially indignant. No matter what formulas envelop this venture, the essence is the same: it is an occupation. ” His opinion is similar to that of the European Union, which on January 6 called on Russia “to respect the sovereignty and independence of Kazakhstan.” They believe that the CSTO troops were sent to the country “to quell the riots.”

“The CSTO is obliged to protect its member from armed aggression, no matter who this aggression comes from,” political analyst Sergei Markov is sure. According to him, if Kazakhstan is left to fend for itself, then the United States will very quickly enter the game, which would be very profitable to knock Kazakhstan out of the allies of Russia and China and use the territory of Kazakhstan to fight against Moscow and Beijing. “The lessons of 2014 and 2020 are cruel,” says the political scientist. – We need to send troops as quickly as possible in the event of a mutiny. Otherwise, everything will be very very bad. ”

Triumphal Arch in Nur-Sultan.

Petr Miloserdov believes that the introduction of CSTO troops can both improve and worsen the situation for Russia in Kazakhstan. “It depends on how it will be implemented. According to him, if the Russian troops are actively used to suppress the riots, this may cause hatred of the Kazakh population towards the Russians in Kazakhstan, who are now participating in the protests a little. “In this case, the Russians risk becoming ‘agents of Moscow’ and ‘half-hidden collaborators’ for life. Which, no doubt, will have a bad effect on their daily life, – says Miloserdov. – My personal opinion: the entry of troops into Kazakhstan should be accompanied by demands (from Moscow) on the legislative consolidation of the role of the Russian population in the country. It should be about federalization processes enshrined in the Constitution. For example – the statuses of the Russian-populated territories as republics with the right to secede from Kazakhstan. Otherwise, we condemn Russians to the role of life-long hostages of the next elbasy. “

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