On Sunday, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that Caliber high-precision long-range sea-based missiles had hit a command post of Ukrainian troops near the village of Shirokaya Dacha, Dnepropetrovsk region. Intelligence worked beyond all praise – the blow was delivered at the moment when a working meeting of the command staff of the Alexandria operational-strategic group was being held in Dacha.
As a result, more than 50 Ukrainian generals and officers were killed, including the generals responsible for the Zaporizhia direction.
According to experts, the simultaneous loss of such a number of top-level officers will certainly affect the quality of planning for a military operation in the Donbass and Zaporozhye.
“The Russian armed forces have begun to beat out the Ukrainian generals, who are holed up in the rear, and this brings a significant result,” the blogger is convinced Yuriy Podolyaka. – It is known that the destroyed Ukrainian generals and colonels planned to carry out operations to regroup troops in the area of Lysichansk and Severodonetsk, as well as in the Slavic direction. Now the Ukrainian garrisons in Lisichansk and Zolote, which were waiting for the decision of the command to regroup and resupply, were left, as they say, without a head. At least for the time being.”
Will this “general cleaning” affect the morale of the Ukrainian group? Will she panic? Hardly.
In the military universities of Ukraine, the old Soviet school of teaching and training has been preserved, which teaches future officers not to get lost in the most difficult situation, to make independent decisions in the absence of direct commanders. The lieutenant is a graduate of any school in Ukraine and is capable of commanding both a platoon and a battle-tactical unit. And all junior and middle-level officers, suddenly left without high authorities, will immediately take the opportunity to try on new epaulets on their shoulders. The death of a senior in rank, no matter how cynical it sounds, in the army opens a new window of career opportunities for the lower ones. And the more subordinates an officer has, the higher his status. The strike of Caliber freed up a whole package of vacancies in the grouping for young careerists.
It is impossible to think of a better springboard for a career breakthrough.
Yes, there will be no general command in the group for some time. There will be no planned offensive operation. But discipline will not fall from this. Some captains and majors will bury their personnel even more in the ground. Surrounded by mines. He will dig a bunch of dugouts, equip long-term firing points and strong points.
For others, at their own peril and risk, subunits will join forces with other units. Here they will be at greater risk. A real hunt will be opened for them by the allied forces.
Someone will dare to break out of the semi-coverage. Maybe he can even do it.
The General Staff of Ukraine will undergo a feverish reassignment of personnel. Each general and colonel has several deputies, and for some of them the finest hour will come. Someone new will be hastily sent from the General Staff or GUR. But they will not be able to quickly orient themselves on the ground. They will need some time to adapt to the situation. And no one will give them time.
Who is playing time
First, the “beheaded” will be offered to surrender – to save the personnel. They are likely to refuse, because in this case their families will be subject to repression. In addition, the officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also have a duty and an oath, like ours.
After that, the allied forces will use battalion reconnaissance to search for operational landing sites and encircle individual enemy units. She will be ambushed by Ukrainian operational-tactical and sabotage groups on the ground. The encircled themselves, according to tradition, will begin to set up strongholds in residential areas – among civilians, in order to make the enemy’s actions as difficult as possible. Usually scouts avoid mutual clashes, but here a war of intelligence is possible – in rough terrain and residential areas.
After finding out and clarifying the location of the enemy, Russian artillery will begin to iron the enemy – where possible. And then helicopters will be deployed to completely encircle battalions or entire brigades. All supply lines will be cut and heavily targeted by artillery. There will be a whole series of “battalion-brigade” boilers. All supply lines will be cut off. And then it will be necessary to give up or repeat the fate of the “Azovites” *. In the forest and the open field, the Armed Forces will surrender or scatter in small groups. Otherwise, death. In urban development, they will be dispersed over industrial zones and city blocks, where, according to tradition, they will begin to take cover with a “human shield”.
In some places, all approaches to strongholds and places of deployment will be mined. For some time, snipers will work on them. And then the time will come for negotiations and surrender. Negotiations will be of varying degrees of duration. But the Mariupol experience will allow the attackers to reduce them to a minimum. There is a small chance that one or two mechanized brigades, which the General Staff saves to protect the territory of Western Ukraine, will be sent to help the encircled. But they will be waiting. Their movement will not go unnoticed. The brigade can be attacked by aircraft and demoralized on the way.
Will the morale of the enemy be broken after this?
It is hard to say. There is an opinion that all members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – young and old – understand that defeat is inevitable. But they are already fighting simply out of principle, in order to make life difficult for the enemy as much as possible. Even at the cost of your own life. And they will surrender only in complete encirclement and when the ammunition is depleted. This is the specificity of the national character. And there’s nothing you can do about it. Therefore, there will be no easy victory in Ukraine.
* Images of chevrons of the battalion (regiment) “Azov” by a court decision