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Jan 6, 2022
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There will not be enough hospitals for everyone: It became clear how much “omicron” is more terrible than “delta”

Photo: Medical staff treating a coronavirus patient in the COVID-19 ward at Willis Knighton Medical Center in Shreveport, Louisiana, USA

Photo: Medical staff treating a coronavirus patient in the COVID-19 ward at Willis Knighton Medical Center in Shreveport, Louisiana, USA (Photo: AP Photo / Gerald Herbert / TASS)

Those who consider omicron to be the easiest variant of coronavirus should find out how things are in countries where this strain has already shown itself. According to state newspapers, “Florida’s COVID-19 cases are up 948% as the omicron swept across the United States in a huge wave. The average number of hospitalizations in seven days increased by more than 40% during the week between Christmas (Catholic) and New Years. “

The data is shocking: on January 3, 984 thousand new cases of infection were recorded in the United States. If you look at the statistics after December 25, you can see that the next days after this kind of peak, the number of people infected is falling rapidly. But, according to Reuters, this is only happening because there are not enough PCR tests.

The New York Times notes that it is extremely dangerous to underestimate the omicron. Yes, it seems to be considered lighter than the deadly “delta”, but because of its incredible infectiousness “it will still cause terrible damage to the unvaccinated in the United States and around the world.” According to the NYT, immunocompromised people have developed such a fear of infection that they are given a fourth or even fifth injection, “although it is unclear if it is safe or effective.”

The biggest problem is that the new variant of the coronavirus, announced by the WHO as causing concern, has not supplanted the previous one, as many virologists had hoped for.

So, in Washington, it was found that most of the new cases relate to people who have already been vaccinated (which is explained by the fact that there are much more people who injected in the US capital than anti-Axers or pofigists), with the omicron responsible for about 61% of infections, and the delta 38%.

Another American newspaper, the Washington Post, sent its correspondent to the Rainbow Babies & Children’s Hospital, which, as it turned out, had no free beds at all. And almost all patients were treated for COVID-19. The publication reminds that a year ago none of the babies (except for extremely rare cases) were infected with the previously known variants of the coronavirus.

In addition to covid patients, they are also treated here for severe forms of influenza and ARVI, as well as for other diseases requiring hospitalization.… Claudia Hoyen, a pediatric infectious disease specialist, described the current bed situation as a real hospital crisis that no one had foreseen.

In the United States, a month ago there was a delusion that we will “slip through”, but now we have to send some children in a grave condition home, in fact, depriving them of urgent hospitalization. According to the latest data in the United States, the number of hospitalizations of children with omicron and delta has reached 800 cases per day, and it seems that this is not the limit.

On the one hand, the omicron is indeed much lighter than the delta. American doctors interviewed at the end of December said that despite the records of positive results of PCR tests in children, in the vast majority of cases, the course of the disease is similar to that of a common cold.

On the other hand, the number of hospitalizations (as of December 19) was 3.64 per 100,000 children aged 0 to 4, which is three times more than those aged 5 to 14. In particular, Aaron Glatt, the head of the department of infectious diseases of one of the children’s hospitals, records “a signal of a possible increase in the number of hospitalizations of children under the age of 2 years,” although he does not yet have data on how severe the course of the disease will be.

By the way, in Britain, as in the United States, several hospitals have already closed their doors to new patients, despite the fact that there are severe cases among them.

CNN publishes an article “Omicron May Be Less Dangerous, But He Is Twisting The American Nation Into A Knot.” author Stephen Collinson writes about people getting tired of bad news. Many have given up on the threat and are trying to live as if there is no covid. But “the pandemic has reached its most paradoxical phase … infection curves shoot vertically upward as hospitals overcrowded, but many Americans who catch COVID-19 for the first time are brushing off the disease as if it were a mild cold.”

The conclusion is that omicron is a very vile infection, if only because it gives the authorities and people hope for an early end to the pandemic, but at the cost of the lives of many people who cannot be helped by doctors due to a short-term shortage of hospital beds.

Prime Minister of Israel Naftali Bennett, having seen enough American covid-horror films, announced the impending catastrophe. Experts from the Gertner Institute at Sheba Medical Center and the Weizmann Institute agree that covidarians will not be able to cope with the influx of patients at the possible peak of this option.

They also state that people know that the omicron is easier and more relaxed, including because they are vaccinated, but the delta, which accounts for the majority of hospitalizations, has not gone anywhere. In a word, if a less dangerous, but very contagious variant of the coronavirus adds its patients to doctors, it will be bad, as in the United States. That is, a number of serious patients will have to be denied emergency assistance.

According to statistics available to Jewish doctors: for every three adult patients who need a bed in a covidarium, there is one child who needs hospitalization. Already in Israel, children with a severe course of COVID-19 are being treated in internal medicine departments instead of infectious diseases departments. But here too it is too much.

Now the question is: will there be enough hospital beds in Russia if the rates of infection are the same as in the United States and Israel? Probably, none of the serious domestic experts will undertake to answer it, with whom the home-grown top officials should not be confused. The latter are “supposed” to wishful thinking, especially when the situation gets out of control.

It is important here to look at what is happening in the countries that have reached the next wave of the pandemic. In the United States, we repeat, the need for beds in just a week increased by 30-40%, with a more than 400-500% increase in the total number of new covid infections.

Apparently, it is necessary to rely on these data when planning the omicron-wave in Russia. When they say that officials expect up to 50 thousand illnesses per day, we can safely say that the situation will be worse.

A million positive PCR tests per day for 340 million in America can mean up to 350 thousand infections for 146 million in Russia. Even if 4% of infected people will get into covidarium, as is the case in other countries, the daily hospitalization will amount to 15 thousand beds. With the current fund of a quarter of a million beds in covidariums and the current occupancy rate of up to 60-80%, it will take only a few days for a hospital crisis to occur in the Russian Federation as well.

Of course, virologists should make predictions, at the same time, the experience of the United States and Israel shows that in these countries no one expected it to be so bad. This means that our authorities, at least, should familiarize the population with the plan in case of the most difficult development of events, and not hush up the problem that is taking place now.

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