Sep 21, 2022
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The X-hour for the ruble will come after the annexation of the liberated territories to Russia

The high-profile events of recent days have forced the Russians to forget about the “little things in life” for a while – but not about the ruble exchange rate. We found out how the situation related to referendums in the liberated territories could affect him.

In recent months, the ruble has been not just a “wooden”, but a real steadfast tin soldier. Nothing took his unwavering course. Nor the government’s attempts to weaken it against the dollar to please Russian exporting companies. Nor introduced more and more anti-Russian sanctions.

We remind readers that the day before, in the midst of political events and statements on referendums and partial mobilization, the ruble again showed its character and resisted. Well, or rather, it has fallen in price, but quite imperceptibly: in relation to the dollar by only 4 kopecks, and to the euro – by 13.

Today, September 21, at the auction, he again demonstrated his vitality. In the morning it fell to 62.8 per dollar and 62.2 per euro. However, then it quickly returned to its former positions: 60.81 rubles against the dollar and 60.25 against the euro. By the way, the “European” even fell in price compared to the previous day’s level by 35 kopecks.

We asked Sergei Drozdov, an independent financial analyst, about what will happen to the ruble next.

– In March, when the next economic sanctions were imposed on Russia, the rate immediately fell to 120 rubles per dollar, then for several weeks it “steered” to the previous level. Now, after significant political events, its course has not changed much. How to explain it?

– I said a few months ago that the exchange rate of the ruble, in addition to the ratio of the trade balance and other factors, is shaped by political decisions. Yesterday’s and today’s trading on the stock exchange is a vivid example of this. Previously, on such news, the domestic currency would have flown down by 10 percent at the moment. And at the auction this morning, it weakened by only 3% and then bounced back.

– Why is this happening?

— In my opinion, because the domestic agenda in the country must be stable and the chain of parallel imports must not be interrupted. Accordingly, this requires a comfortable ruble exchange rate, it creates a certain financial grace in our minds. Prices for domestic goods in stores will not change in the near future, as well as for imported ones. For parallel imports to work, you need a stable ruble.

– What will be the exchange rate of the ruble tomorrow or the day after tomorrow? What can we expect?

“No one will tell you that. If someone had such information, he would have become a billionaire long ago. For now, it will remain within the framework in which it is today – with slight deviations in different directions. Predicting political decisions is a thankless task.

However, as soon as the financial block of the government finalizes the budget rule, then the prosperity that we see today will end. The budget has certain problems, sooner or later the ruble will move to the region of 70 per dollar. But when this X hour for the ruble comes, no one will tell you.

You are talking about seventy. Can it return to the level of 50 rubles per dollar?

– Extremely unlikely.

– Suppose that in a month or two, part of Ukraine will become part of Russia as a result of a referendum. What will happen to the ruble then?

– New territories require restoration, significant funds for these works will have to be paid from the Russian budget. There are many pensioners who need to pay state pensions. Accordingly, they will also be directed from the budget. In order for the budget to have enough money for everything, the ruble exchange rate will have to weaken in the future. Today it is in the manual control of the Central Bank, otherwise we would see a completely different course already now.

– What conclusions can be drawn from this? Is it time to buy currency?

– Why not? It is always worth insuring against possible geopolitical risks. Purchase cash or non-cash dollars to transfer them to your foreign accounts. As far as I know, the purchase amount is not limited. How much is in fact in the bank, so much will be sold. Previously, the exchange rate difference from the central bank was 20%. Now this percentage is lower, you just need to choose the right bank and time.

– What does time mean?

For some reason, everything is delayed for us. People ask if it’s time to buy a currency when it already needs to be sold. Few people arrive at the right moment. For those who have dollars, I do not advise changing them to rubles immediately after the liberated territories join Russia. It is better to wait until the geopolitical history somehow collapses.

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