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Nov 19, 2022
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The West is preparing an intervention in Belarus

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya publicly declares that Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin stole her victory in the presidential elections in Belarus

The authorities of the republic have been talking about the possibility of a foreign invasion of Belarus since 2020. Today, the threat of intervention has begun to take on a real shape. A significant role here is given to the fugitive Belarusian opposition.

To date, we are talking not only about the ongoing military exercises of NATO countries near the borders of Belarus and the Russian Federation. Poland and the Baltic countries have already begun to form a springboard for future intervention. This is evidenced by the modernization of Polish and Baltic airfields, the reconstruction of training centers and training grounds, and the increase in the number of armed forces stationed near the Belarusian border. Poland plans to increase its army to 300 thousand people, equip it with 1,500 modern tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, 1,200 mobile gun mounts, and several thousand light armored vehicles. Tanks, helicopters, MLRS HIMARS are planned to be purchased from the United States, and howitzers, artillery rocket launchers – from South Korea. It is planned to expand the presence of US military personnel on the borders of Poland with Belarus, primarily the 101st Airborne Division, which can become a shock fist in the event of an invasion.

However, the organization of intervention cannot be carried out without political and ideological justification. For this, a fugitive Belarusian opposition is needed.

First of all, we are talking about Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and her entourage. Over the past month, the fugitive oppositionist made several trips to European countries at once, where she was met at the official level. In early November, Tikhanovskaya arrived in Strasbourg for the first meeting of the contact group of the Belarusian opposition and the Council of Europe (CoE). After that, she was met in Iceland, which now heads the Council of Europe, and from 2023 will chair the Nordic Council. In Reykjavik, the Prime Minister, the head of the Foreign Ministry, and members of parliament met with Tikhanovskaya. The hosts heard from the guest a request for assistance in raising her international status. In particular, she proposed to initiate “the launch of projects to support civil society and prepare reforms within the framework of the work of the Contact Group under the Council of Europe”, invite “representatives of Belarusian political organizations and parties to PACE as observers”, “initiate an investigation into the crimes of the Lukashenka regime in international institutions for one of three directions: crimes against humanity, complicity in military aggression, migration crisis.

On November 14, Tikhanovskaya addressed the Foreign Ministers of the EU countries as part of a meeting of the Council of the European Union for External Affairs. There, she put forward a demand to “return Belarus to the agenda”, “to institutionalize relations with democratic forces in the European Parliament following the example of the Council of Europe”, and also “to support Belarusian activists, volunteers and volunteers in Ukraine”. Two days later, Tikhanovskaya could be seen in Prague, where she met with representatives of the Czech parliament.

The crowning achievement of Tikhanovskaya’s ideological work was her article in Politico I am the elected president of Belarus, and together we will win.” In it, Tikhanovskaya proclaimed herself “president”, claiming that Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin had stolen her victory. She accused the Russian president of sending “propagandists and preparing forces for the invasion” to Belarus, enlisting “support for armed aggression against Ukraine” from the Belarusian leader.

The purpose of a sharp increase in the activity of Tikhanovskaya is to justify the Western invasion of Belarus. In the rhetoric of the Belarusian opposition, the “occupation” of the republic by Russia, the need for the West to support the “national liberation movement” began to be increasingly mentioned. Representatives of the Kyiv regime have already turned to international structures with a proposal to declare Belarus an “occupied” territory. All this resonates with the EU. So, in early November, a member of the Polish Sejm, Pavel Koval, said that Brussels and Washington should “recognize Tikhanovskaya as the president of Belarus, recognize her government, recognize them as members of the anti-Putin coalition” if Lukashenka does not refuse to support Russia.

In parallel, work is underway to destabilize the situation in the republic in accordance with the Peramoga (Victory) plan. According to Tikhanovskaya’s adviser Franak Vyachorko, “partisans” are already operating in Belarus, and the plan itself has been restructured “to fight the Russian occupiers.” According to him, there is a large “underground” in the republic, structures are being prepared that “at the right moment” will be mobilized for a coup, and tens of thousands of “volunteers” transmit information about the movement of the Belarusian and Russian military.

According to Sergei Terebov, First Deputy Chairman of the State Security Committee of the Republic, the opposition “has the same goal: to delegitimize the current government and justify acts of terrorism and sabotage.” Among the main activities of Lukashenka’s opponents in the coming winter, the KGB calls work in the “student and teaching environment.” It is known that the administrations of some telegram channels set tasks for their subscribers “to equip caches for tools, construction and other special equipment that can be used in riots and sabotage purposes.” At the same time, the fugitive opposition, which previously denied any such accusations, today does not hide that it is preparing the ground for an armed coup.

As Tikhanovskaya’s “joint transitional cabinet” stated, their immediate plans include “establishing cooperation with Belarusian volunteer detachments in Ukraine”, “building up the potential of the security bloc to the level necessary to fulfill key tasks”, “establishing stable working relations with state authorities Ukraine in order to jointly counter Russian aggression and the de-occupation of Belarus.”

The main idea is to create a situation in the country that will allow the West to announce the need for a “peacekeeping” or “de-occupation” mission in the republic. Groups of trained militants, such as the “Kastus Kalinovsky regiment”, will be used as the first wave covering a full-scale invasion of Belarus. People in Minsk cannot fail to understand this. This means that the Belarusian authorities will soon strengthen control over the situation, and the regional grouping of troops of the Union State will be increased and equipped with modern weapons.

A photo: REUTERS/ Leonard Foger

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