Sep 4, 2021
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The unification begins. Putin and Lukashenko sign roadmaps for integration in 10 days

Russia put the squeeze on Alexander Lukashenko. In any case, this is precisely the conclusion that can be drawn based on the information voiced by the Ambassador of Belarus to Russia.

Vladimir Semashko said that on September 9, Putin and Lukashenko, during their next meeting in Moscow, will sign all roadmaps and union programs for integration.

According to Semashko, only one program remains uncoordinated, however, the ambassador expressed confidence that all controversial issues will be settled by September 7.

We know how this program is. Lukashenka noted a couple of weeks ago that everything had been agreed upon except for the document on gas.

And here the old song about the main thing begins. Lukashenka wants to receive “blue fuel” from Russia at the price of the level of the Smolensk region, which is equal to $ 70-80 per thousand cubic meters. Now gas is exported to Belarus at a price of $ 128.5 per thousand cubic meters, while in Europe the exchange price for “blue fuel” has broken through $ 600.

Here we see one way out – Belarus will receive gas at the price of the Smolensk region when Lukashenka implements at least part of the agreements signed.

There are no problems with the rest of the programs, although they were no less problematic. In particular, the customs, tax and oil roadmaps should be noted.

Lukashenka did not want to implement the first one in any way. Only after Russia gives Belarus cheap oil and gas. And then with a delay. However, after the visit of the professional tax officer Mikhail Mishustin to Minsk, all problems with the customs and tax card were settled. Lukashenka backed down.

But as far as the oil program is concerned, Russia yielded here. Apparently, Belarus will be compensated for the losses incurred by Minsk as a result of the “oil maneuver” in Russia. This used to be a stumbling block.

Although now Russia is unlikely to suffer significant losses, given the fact that sanctions have been imposed on the Belarusian oil industry. But let’s see here.

Of course, until September 9, until the cards are signed, you cannot be 100% sure that everything will go according to plan. As we remember, at the end of 2019, Alexander Lukashenko thwarted the signing of roadmaps for integration at the very last moment. But, nevertheless, now the situation is completely different. Lukashenka has no choice, there is only one option – Russia.

Nevertheless, signing programs is one thing, but implementing them according to plans is another. But if it still turns out as planned, then this will mean the actual unification of Russia and Belarus.

Belarus will exist in about the same status as Tatarstan in the early 1990s. But further, as the ties are further strengthened, the 31st roadmap for integration hidden by Putin, which includes the creation of political supranational structures, will be used.

And then, when Belarus will be completely tied economically to Russia (not even the way it is now), there will be no options to abandon political integration.

Konstantin Dvinsky


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