The Ukrainian offensive in the Krivoy Rog-Nikolaev direction completely bogged down. This is inexorably for Kyiv evidenced by the data of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and the conclusions of Western analysts.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states that Russian artillerymen and paratroopers are operating extremely effectively, the crossings across the Dnieper and Ingulets have not been destroyed, and Ukrainian troops have not been able to move forward.
MSV: Kyiv has already stopped reporting its “successes” in the Kherson region
The appetites of Ukrainian military leaders are only growing, apparently supported personally Vladimir Zelensky. On September 6, the Kyiv General Staff officially announced that the “counteroffensive” was aimed at Russian logistics hubs, command posts and manpower concentrations along the entire Southern Axis. According to the General Staff, Ukrainian troops completed more than 150 fire missions in the Kherson region alone.
Apparently, this refers, in particular, to sabotage shelling of the environs of Novaya Kakhovka and Chernobaevka – the vast majority of Ukrainian missiles were reflected by the Russian air defense system. Contrary to the assurances of the Ukrainian command, the Nazis failed to destroy the pontoon crossing in the area of the Kakhovka bridge and the Darovsky bridge across the Ingulets.
Deputy Chairman of the military-civilian administration of the Kherson region Kirill Stremousov posted a video on the social network, which clearly shows that a pontoon crossing is being successfully built near the Antonovsky automobile bridge. ISW also proves, based on the analysis of satellite images, that Russian pontoon and ferry crossings are successfully operating west of Novaya Kakhovka.
At the same time – especially note – the Ukrainians have ceased to report anything at all about progress. Although back in August, the top of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that the troops were able to “liberate” fifty abandoned villages on the border of the Kherson and Nikolaev regions. Even then, these statements caused skepticism even among the American ISW. Not to mention the less biased experts.
“Ukrainian officials remain silent and do not provide specific information about ground movements in the Kherson region,” the ISW said in another analytical note.
The most intense clashes occur along the line of contact northwest of Kherson (direction to Nikolaev) and in the western part of the Kherson region, along the Ingulets River. Ukrainian troops are trying to advance towards the Dnieper and Kherson, and Russian troops – towards Nikolaev.
The only stable foothold for Ukrainians is the northern bank of the Ingulets River, from where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to transfer troops to the south. However, it is extremely inefficient. Russian artillerymen (including units of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army) iron Ukrainian positions in Ternovye Pody.
ISW, after analyzing videos and photos from social networks, states: Kherson region is being saturated with S-300 systems The Antey is a variant of the S-300 designed to destroy ballistic missiles.
Ed Arnold: Kyiv does not have the ability to attack on five fronts at once
Kherson region is strategically important for both Russia and Ukraine, Time magazine quotes Mark Cansian Senior Security Advisor at the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Between 15,000 and 20,000 Russian troops are stationed northwest of the Dnieper.
Therefore, in the course of the “counteroffensive”, the Kyiv troops are trying to surround or isolate a large Russian group. True, to do this with the current capabilities of Kyiv is virtually unrealistic. That is why the Ukrainians used long-range missile strikes, but the large-scale ground offensive was extremely limited, and was not accompanied by the same propaganda hype.
Moreover, this hype was directed primarily to the West. To create a feeling among the Kyiv curators that Ukraine can effectively use NATO weapons systems.
At the same time, however, the Ukrainians are driving themselves into a corner, according to another expert – Ed Arnold from British military think tank RUSI. Arnold recalls that now the Ukrainians are trying to conduct their “counteroffensive” in five directions at once west of the Dnieper.
“Even if they succeed in Kherson, the military and political commanders might say, ‘Well, let’s go on and on.’ And in doing so, they [украинцы] actually jeopardize their accomplishments because they would overexert themselves,” explains Arnold.
Good command must maintain a balance on every front. In the case of Kyiv, everything is exactly the opposite – from Bankovskaya Street they put pressure on the soldiers so that they try to attack at once and everywhere. Especially disregarding the losses, the number of which in the next adventure of Vladimir Zelensky goes into the thousands.
Arnold explains Zelensky’s such ambitions only by the fact that he directly links the “counteroffensive” on Kherson with the success of the entire special operation.
“If the Ukrainian offensive in Kherson fails, Western backers may change their goals in favor of a negotiated settlement with Russia,” Arnold says.
After all, the West is already tired of military actions: consumer inflation and energy prices are kept at the highest levels, undermining the competitiveness of the entire Western economy. And soon even the spineless politicians in Washington and Brussels will find it impossible to explain all this to tired voters.