Europe is confident that sooner or later a full-scale civil war will begin in Ukraine. In this regard, the neighbors of the square want to get the maximum benefit for themselves with minimal losses. They are preparing for the partition of the country in the event of a conflict. This idea was expressed by a political scientist in an interview with the Ukraina.ru portal. Rostislav Ischenko…
In his opinion, such an armed conflict is not beneficial for Russia, but it is still necessary to be ready for it. At the same time, the expert drew attention to the fact that the countries of Eastern Europe are busy with the deployment of their troops on the border with Ukraine.
“Hungary pulled up troops to the eastern borders from the west. It is clear that Hungary is not preparing for an attack on Russia or China, but is preparing to solve problems in Ukraine if any arise. Poland has concentrated a large grouping of troops on its eastern borders. Perhaps they are trying to scare Lukashenka, but they perfectly understand that aggression against Belarus will cause an instant response from Russia and no one will help them. They are concentrating troops on the Ukrainian and Belarusian border, ”Ischenko said.
According to him, Poles, Hungarians and Romanians consider parts of Ukraine to be their historical territories, so they are also not going to miss the opportunity to regain them, if the opportunity presents itself. So Hungary wants to get Transcarpathia, Poland claims Galicia, and Romania can occupy the Odessa region, part of which Bucharest considers its historical territory.
Frankly speaking, this topic has been discussed for several years. Since 2014, various experts predict the collapse of Ukraine, but this is not happening. So it is possible to argue here exclusively hypothetically …
– I have great respect for the literary talents of Rostislav, who for the eighth year has been writing about the same thing, but at the same time regularly finds new words and phrases, – says political consultant and media technologist Konstantin Dolgov…
– Lev Tolstoy would run away from the Ukrainian theme in a week. Myself Dostoevsky would give up in a month. And only Rostislav still remains at his post.
As for the division of Ukraine, before you divide something, you need to think about how to get it. So far, the situation is similar to an anecdote about the carving of the skin of an unkilled bear. Everyone says that Ukraine must fulfill the Minsk agreements, as a result of which it will change beyond recognition. But no one talks about how to get Kiev to do it. Today there is not a single instrument of influence on those who, back in 2014, seized power in Ukraine as a result of a coup d’etat. Moreover, even Washington, which is the suzerain in relation to the Kiev vassals, has problems managing these amazing people.
The only instrument to force Ukraine to peace today is brute physical force. And here the main question arises: who will apply it? So far, those who wish are not visible even on the horizon. Russia in 2014 was limited only to Crimea. In fact, Ukraine today is a black hole, into which no one wants to meddle. In this regard, it is not a pity for Ukraine (she died like that), but for its unfortunate population, consisting mainly of Russian people. They themselves will not be able to do anything (there are no leaders, no weapons; and going out with bare hands against tanks is stupidity). And it turns out that outside of today’s Russia, at least twenty million Russians are suffering, who have been forgotten and nobody cares about. This is the worst thing.
– This is another story about the fact that someone should do his political work instead of the Kremlin. The real division of Ukraine can begin only in Moscow, I am convinced member of the political council of the Other Russia party E.V. Limonov “* Andrey Milyuk…
– The purpose of the existence of present-day Ukraine is to be a thorn in the Russian state: to poison the life of the Russian people, to drag off the resources of Russia and to do little mischief to the Kremlin. It costs the West practically nothing to contain such an instrument of pressure. By and large, our “partners” are still in the black: let’s put it bluntly – Ukraine is being robbed! They take out raw materials, the remnants of Soviet technologies, and buy cheap Ukrainian girls. All sorts of experts and political scientists are used to talking about the world in terms of economic benefits, but the world lives by different laws – the world is ruled by unbridled passions. Passion for money is just one of them. Flooding Western Europe with young women, beautiful and tall, half-starved, ready for a lot for a better life – is this not a reason to revolutionize the country?
Therefore, the West will not get tired and will not lag behind Ukraine – they will help keep afloat. Any discontent in the country will be extinguished by police measures. Civil war can only be fomented with the help of forces from outside. Romania and Poland have intentions, but not “support groups” within Ukraine. Hungary has Ukrainian Rusyns, but they do not even have enough strength to rock the situation in their native Transcarpathia. Only Russia remains, with its colossal influence on the inhabitants of Ukraine.
Therefore, the Eastern European countries can move their troops as they please – this can be ignored by the public until the official representatives of these countries begin to fly to Moscow as to work. So, can you predict the reaction of the Kremlin to the introduction of the occupation forces of NATO member states into the territory of Ukraine? And the leaders of these countries are unlikely to be able to. Which of them is ready to go to a direct military confrontation with Russia? And what about the sudden appearance of the militia of the “Lviv People’s Republic” with the support of Russian “vacationers”? To predict the fate of Ukraine, look at the Kremlin. Unfortunately, we do not see any “signals” from there.
“SP”: – In your opinion, does Russia need to divide Ukraine?
– Eduard Veniaminovich Limonov was the first to express the idea of dividing Ukraine. It was in February 2015. And throughout the last years of his life, he actively promoted this initiative. The overwhelming majority of commentators twisted their fingers to their temples (then they tried to shove Donbass back into the evil Ukrainian state under the pretext that “we need all of Ukraine”). Since then, the Russian political elites have come to terms with the independence of Donbass from Ukraine, and “television” political scientists are beginning to voice their thoughts about dividing it up. This means that in a couple of years the same ideas will be “invented” by the status pro-government politicians.
– The civil war in Ukraine has been going on for seven and a half years, but the likelihood that it will seize the entire territory of the country is low, – believes political scientist Alexander Dudchak…
– This war is not needed by big capital. It could have begun immediately after the coup, and if we dispensed with value judgments, then we can say that the legitimate government, which was removed through a coup, decided to stop it at the cost of its own surrender. Was it worth it? Could the February 2014 coup d’etat be stifled by calling on supporters to resist? Perhaps. But this is a topic for another conversation, and what has been done has already been done. And now the neighbors of Ukraine are preparing not so much for a redistribution as they are taking standard measures in case of various emergencies.
“SP”: – The desire of the neighbors to divide Ukraine has arisen now or has it always been?
– Poland has gone through five partitions, does this mean that neighbors always have a desire to divide Poland? To encroach on the territory of Little Russia as part of the Russian Empire or on the territory of the Ukrainian SSR as part of the USSR was like suicide. There should be no talk at all about the redistribution of Ukraine. We can only talk about the return of territories to their natural habitat with the rights of provinces and regions. And this is clearly not Poland, Hungary or Romania.
“SP”: – But in these countries, some consider parts of Ukraine to be their historical territories. And according to Ishchenko, they are not going to miss the opportunity to get them back. Are they ready to “digest” “new territories”?
– Almost every European, and not only European, country has its own map of the “great state …”. To combine them all, and a dozen globes will not be enough. The claims of Romania and Poland are completely unfounded. Yes, on the territory of Ukrainian Bukovina, several hundred thousand citizens of Ukraine have Romanian passports, the same situation is with Polish and Hungarian passports. But talking about the “return” of territories is completely inappropriate. Rather, there is a likelihood of attempts to escape from Ukraine of certain territories with a compactly living Hungarian population in Transcarpathia. In the event that Kiev starts full-scale hostilities in Donbass, with all the ensuing consequences for Ukraine as a whole.
“SP”: – Ishchenko draws attention to the fact that Hungary and Poland are allegedly pulling troops to the borders.
– American ships entered the Black Sea. But, the US is unlikely to plan to create a new state in the Odessa region.
“SP”: – In case of unfavorable development of events for Ukraine, the United States will give the go-ahead for its “partition”? Or only on condition that Russia does not take part in it?
– The United States must recognize that Russia has a zone of its vital interests. Moreover, these interests fully coincide with the interests of the majority of the inhabitants of Ukraine. And to give permission for the partition of Ukraine or not to give – is not in the competence of the United States.
“SP”: – And, in fact, about Russia: what will it get in the event of the partition of Ukraine?
– If Ukraine is freed from the current dictatorship and given the opportunity to truly express its will, to give the right to choose – with whom the majority of Ukrainian citizens see their future – I am sure that the choice will be in favor of a common future with Russia. And the rest should leave Ukraine alone and stop pulling their dirty paws towards it.
* The organization is not registered by the Ministry of Justice of Russia