Jan 31, 2021
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The ruble has fallen and is waiting for further pressure

The ruble has fallen and is waiting for further pressure

Photo: Zamir Usmanov / Global Look Press

The ruble / dollar exchange rate fell sharply over the last decade of January, exceeding 76 rubles by the end of January for the first time since December. However, its serious fluctuations were noted throughout the past year.

“In 2020, there have been many events and factors that may affect the global and Russian economies in 2021, in particular, the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar and the euro. This is both the coronavirus pandemic and the presidential elections in the United States, “the Associate Professor of the Department of Commerce and Trade, Synergy University, told Prime. Alice Temples

On January 20, 2021, the President of the United States officially became Joe Biden, who, even before taking office, spoke very harshly about Russia, threatened with new sanctions and investigations. Judging by the latest statements by representatives of the new administration, Washington is ready to continue pressure on Russia, and thus on the ruble: part of the sanctions is included in the US defense budget, the head of the US Treasury has already announced its commitment to sanctions Janet Yellen, which, moreover, intends to strengthen the dollar.

However, the first serious positive moment has appeared in Russian-American relations – the extension of the START-3 Treaty, which may become the beginning of “serious” negotiations.

“There should be serious, thorough negotiations on the entire spectrum of nuclear challenges and threats outside the START-3 Treaty. There are other emergencies and challenges here, ”said the US President’s National Security Advisor. Jake Sullivan

Despite existing disagreements, he said, the new US administration intends to conduct credible, serious, disillusioned strategic negotiations with Russia “credible, serious, disillusioned strategic negotiations.”

For a long time, many experts have not seen the point in making forecasts regarding the exchange rate of the national currency and even monitoring its changes. Independent Economist Igor Lavrovsky believes that little depends on this indicator.

– Due to the pandemic, external travel has been sharply reduced due to circumstances beyond the dollar’s control. Accordingly, the demand for the dollar for their payment is low. Oil prices go back and forth, but also insignificant. This also does not particularly affect imports.

If we now look at what is filling the domestic market, then the lion’s share is accounted for by domestic production, on which the exchange rate has less and less influence. See what’s going on in the American stock market. These are all grand speculative games. It is not serious to draw geopolitical conclusions from this. In Japan, the yen has been low for many decades and this does not bother anyone.

The value of the exchange rate for the domestic economy is small and decreasing.

Associate Professor of the Department of Regulation of Financial Institutions Activities, Faculty of Finance and Banking, RANEPA, Ph.D. Yuri Tverdokhleb believes that all recent fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate are situational.

– They are the result of multiple factors, including not global, but current ones, and the general political situation in the country, as well as market factors that determine the situation in the markets. There is probably no need to talk about a trend.

I think that after this decline, the ruble will stabilize at the level that has developed recently.

“SP”: – Can the threats from the new team of the American administration affect the course?

– Sanctions cannot change the situation on a global scale, they lead to current fluctuations, which are actively played by players trying to benefit from it.

The actions of the Central Bank of Russia make it possible to keep the course in the parameters that are. I do not see any serious economic factors that could have an impact on the decline in the national currency.

Financial expert, investor Jan Marchinsky believes that now politics affects the ruble more than the economy.

– From the point of view of the economy, everything is not bad in Russia. Moreover, according to some indicators, the ruble seems to be oversold, that is, its more fair price should be higher in relation to the dollar.

The ruble is more influenced by politics and various public resonances. Biden’s inauguration, and his unfriendly remarks about Russia, are weakening the ruble because they tell investors that there may be tension. Plus the situation around Navalny, which objectively undermines the investment climate in the country.

“SP”: – Can we expect a new collapse of the ruble?

– Now it is impossible to predict anything. Apart from politics and the news background, the oil price will, as always, have a very strong influence on the ruble. However, I would single out as the main factors the further rhetoric around the sanctions, the sanctions themselves and the situation with Navalny.

Exchange rates will be largely determined by the state of the US-China economic relationship, believes economist-orientalist Alexander Saveliev.

– If the US continues the excessive emission policy typical of the Democrats, a further drop in the dollar rate is inevitable. The short-term strengthening of the dollar on world markets is largely due to a decrease in fears of extraordinary events associated with the elections in the United States, and not with some fundamental reasons.

The US trade balance remains negative. Trump’s attempt to return manufacturing to America fell short. Therefore, the currency and financial and commodity markets, especially during a pandemic, will face times of high volatility.

As for the ruble exchange rate, it is more connected with the policy of the Central Bank of Russia, which has sufficient gold and foreign exchange reserves.

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