There are practically no chances to avoid a resumption of the military conflict in Donbass, so a full-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) should be expected in the very near future.
This statement was made by the head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) on the TV channel “Russia 24” Denis Pushilin… “Ukraine has everything ready for this. We will see whether the decisive order that will be disastrous for the whole of Ukraine will be issued, ”he said, noting that by now Kiev has all the necessary material and technical means for such an attack and, according to the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission alone, already concentrated on railway junctions near the contact line over 600 units of armored vehicles, as well as a large number of manpower.
Interestingly, on April 1, the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reported on social networks that during a telephone conversation with the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleboy announced the United States’ unshakable support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, which could well be regarded by the current leadership of the “independent” as issuing carte blanche for any action against the “rebellious” regions.
In parallel, on the same day, the Pentagon expressed its concern over reports of the movement of Russian troops near the Ukrainian borders.
On the one hand, the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov officially stated that in this way the Russian Federation is simply taking the necessary measures to protect its own borders, moving troops within its territory at its own discretion, and this does not pose any threat to anyone.
However, on the other hand, one might get the impression that Donbass is preparing the share of a lamb, which will be quite willingly laid on the altar in order to achieve their goals, practically everyone involved in one way or another in the conflict that has been smoldering there with varying degrees of intensity for 7 years.
Judge for yourself.
For the White House, “playing off” the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces in a fratricidal war, according to a number of political scientists, is a kind of political “revenge” on the Kremlin for allegedly interfering in the internal affairs of America, as well as an excellent opportunity to defame one of its main opponents in the struggle for world influence in the political arena.
For the Ukrainian ruling elite, of course, the return of Donbass to their hand at any cost now is a matter of preserving, so to speak, a “political face”. In addition, as he notes in his telegram channel political scientist Marat Bashirov, Ukraine continues to lose gas transit volumes and, accordingly, money. “In this context,” he writes, “the aggravation in the Donbass pursues, among others, the following goal: to start a war, to involve Russia at least for a day, and under this sauce the United States will force Berlin to abandon Nord Stream 2. Then, during peak seasons, it will be difficult for Europe to manage without transit through Ukraine ”.
However, victories in the field of Donbass are needed not only Zelensky or Biden, but also to the Kremlin.
“War is a good remedy against political turbulence,” the observer quotes. Dmitry Drize telegram channel “Kremlin BezBashennik”. – There are two problems to be solved here. Make the “partners” change their tone – from threatening to respectful. And the second, of course, is to distract Russian society from the negativity – Navalny, rising prices and further down the list ”.
– Will the long-suffering Donbass “blaze” in reality in the near future? – “SP” asked its own political scientists.
– I can assume, – shared his thoughts with “SP” political scientist Konstantin Kalachev… – that the Russian government is now faced with the need to decide what, in fact, is better for it – a small, figuratively speaking, victorious war, which in reality may turn out to be in fact not so small and not so victorious, or, on the contrary, whipping up military hysteria followed by a statement in the spirit of “we guarantee peace and stability.” Simply put, in what role to appear before the electorate – as a guarantor of peace and stability in accordance with the demands of the population, or as a government capable of taking the DPR and LPR from Ukraine, and, possibly, also Odessa and Kharkov against the background of a fall in respect for the authorities due to the end of the beneficial effects of the “Crimean consensus”.
Which of these themes the authorities will ultimately choose as dominant, I am still at a loss to guess. However, one should not forget that military action against Georgia in defense of the South Ossetians is one thing, and a military conflict with Ukraine is quite another. In addition, the manipulative factor should not be disregarded. After all, if you first escalate the situation around Donbass, and then say – guys, we guarantee there will be no war, then, perhaps, many after that will happily go to vote for the party in power. If such a trick worked once, then why not show it again?
Head of the Laboratory of Political and Social Technologies Alexey Nezhivoi also holds the opinion that no one will directly fight for Donbass with anyone, and all “threatening movements” around the region are simply the result of some backroom bargaining by political elites about the future of Donbass.
– The current Ukrainian ruling elite seems to be interested in a winning war, – he notes, – but, firstly, in order to reach the now better fortified Luhansk, you have to pass through the perfectly fortified Donetsk, and the Ukrainian military, after numerous failed attempts to resolve the issue by military means, a practically conditioned reflex has already been developed not to get on the rampage and not to get involved with the DPR and LPR. Like a monkey who was constantly hit on the head when trying to reach for a banana.
Secondly, Europe and the United States will not support Ukraine in a direct military conflict. Because neither the caricature Ukrainian, nor the mythical American, nor any other army in the world, except perhaps the Russian and Chinese, is capable of fighting for a long time. In addition, after several clashes, there will be nothing corny to fight with. It used to be that plywood planes beat hundreds of times, but now one fighter is like a whole good army, so it will be too troublesome to restore expensive weapons.
Thirdly, military operations in Donbass are also not profitable for Russia, because it very clearly immediately destabilizes the internal political situation, since the war will go on practically on our borders, and no one has canceled the flows of refugees from both sides.
“SP”: – Can a military conflict in Donbass break out by some ridiculous accident?
– I think this is out of the question. It was the First World War that began on emotions after the assassination of the Austrian Duke. And now there are no charismatic people among the political elites who are capable of taking responsibility for anything, and even more so – for bloody, I beg your pardon, “kneading”. They are ready to sit for months, figuratively speaking, on the shore and confer, come up with options, weigh, discuss, argue, find out. So, if concrete military actions begin, it will only be if, after long, long bickering, it nevertheless becomes clear that there is no other way left.
“SP”: – Well, what is the future of Donbass then?
– It is very difficult to talk about this yet. Recently, for example, our “digital geniuses” in the government calculated on their fingers that even just maintaining the Donetsk, and especially the Lugansk republics of Russia is too expensive, so if they fall off, so to speak, nothing will happen to our country.
But I can assume that with a high degree of probability the region will face the fate of Transnistria and Nagorno-Karabakh. How many years have these last existed in limbo? But there, whole generations of people have been socialized in the difficult conditions of the unrecognized state formation, people have become accustomed to this state of affairs. So, I believe that the “Donbass issue” will eventually be mothballed until better times.
“SP”: – Will these “best times” ever come?
– Now the enmity between Russia and Ukraine is cultivated artificially. But due to the economic unviability of our “geopolitical opponents”, I think that quite soon the Ukrainians and the Russians will again be left to their own devices. And here everything will depend on which direction of development the post-Soviet space will choose. Right now there is talk about the creation of a single Eurasian space, which means the actual assembly of the “USSR 2.0”. In fact, only this, so to speak, weapon can cut the “Gordian knot” of Donbass, but only on condition that this project is implemented not on the liberal, but exclusively on the left socio-economic agenda.