Oct 13, 2020
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The IMF has improved the forecast for the fall of the Russian economy in 2020

The International Monetary Fund has revised its estimate of the fall of the Russian economy in 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic, improving its forecast by 2.5 percentage points.

Thus, according to the new IMF estimate, Russia's GDP by the end of the year will fall by 4.1% instead of 6.6%, reports TASS.

At the same time, the fund downgraded the forecast for Russia's GDP growth next year from 4.1% to 2.8%.

It is noted that the IMF estimates for 2020 are more optimistic than the forecasts of the Russian departments. Thus, the Central Bank predicts a fall in the Russian economy this year by 4.5–5.5%. However, the Central Bank expects higher GDP growth rates in 2021 - 3.5-4.5%.

Also, the IMF estimates the average inflation in Russia this year at 3.7% versus 4.5% a year earlier. The country's unemployment fund forecast is 5.6% in 2020 and 5.2% next year. Russia's balance of payments will increase by 1.2% this year and by 1.8% in the next 12 months.

As wrote earlier, Russia's public debt in 2021 will cross the mark of 20% of GDP, and in 2023 it will grow to 21.3% of GDP. Such data are indicated in the explanatory note to the draft federal budget for 2021 and the planning period of 2022 and 2023.

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