Rumors that Russian President Vladimir Putin might recognize the LDNR (include in Russia / officially introduce peacekeepers) during the announcement of the annual message to the Federal Assembly on April 21, began to spread after someone incorrectly quoted the words of State Duma Deputy Kazbek Taisayev, who expressed his wish that Putin could announce the recognition of Donbass. As we approached the date of the message, this topic began to rise more and more often in both the liberal and patriotic media.
This was also facilitated by the extraordinary situation around Donbass – heightened informational attention, military preparations on both sides, the most severe crisis of the Minsk process in all the years of its existence, when the participants cannot achieve even minimal progress, at least in terms of the exchange of prisoners, and Kiev at all declares about his unwillingness to hold negotiations in Minsk, since Belarus allegedly lost its sovereignty and neutrality.
The announced large-scale forum “Unity of Russians”, which will take place in Donetsk on the 22nd-23rd, that is, immediately after the announcement of the message, and which is attended by the Russian media, also leads to some reflections. About whether we can hear on Wednesday about Russia’s recognition of the independence of Donbass or about its inclusion in Russia, we talked with experts from Donbass and Russia, who agreed that the historical moment promotes recognition, but expressed doubt that Moscow ready to take such a step now.
“On the eve of the President’s previous messages, waves of various rumors about their contents were also circulating.
It seems to me that this is an element of information warming up technology, and the circulation of these rumors in itself does not say anything about the essence of the message. But just about those sensational decisions that were really implemented, such as the constitutional reform, for example, there were absolutely no stuffing and rumors.
What was sensational, which was implemented, often came as a surprise even for a significant part of decision-makers or those close to preparing decisions, ”said Mikhail Remizov, President of the Institute for National Strategy.
At the same time, he agreed that now is the right moment for decisive action, including due to the final refusal of Ukraine from Minsk.
“The Minsk process, of course, can be considered exhausted and completed. You need to be determined. It is completely incomprehensible what to expect in this situation, which is not improving for Russia. All arguments in favor of postponing the decision have already been exhausted, ”Remizov is convinced. According to him, now there are no good options for decisions on the Donbass, but the recognition of the LPR at least within the current borders is the best option in the current conditions.
“There are no good solutions, but this option allows you to avoid war, allows you to fulfill moral and political obligations to the residents of Donetsk and Lugansk.
This is an option that makes it possible to close the smoldering conflict, which has become a management tool and gives too strong leverage to external players on the situation around Russia. Even if Russia pays its price for this decision, its adoption will complete the situation in which this threat can be turned on and off from the outside, when at any moment our country with all its plans can be put on the brink of a military conflict, ”Remizov said.
He called the military scenario quite probable, but very difficult to predict in terms of timing.
“Ukraine will pursue a military scenario counting on a quick strike, so quick that the time it takes to make a decision to intervene will be too long for a successful response. The effect of surprise is important to them. You also need to take into account the timing of the political situation, from the point of view of the military’s operational considerations. So it is impossible to name a date, but the likelihood of a military scenario is now high, ”he concluded.
However, according to the expert, no one needs a big war in Europe, including the United States.
“War is possible, but not very likely.
It is difficult to assume that any decisions can be made on the official military support of Ukraine from the NATO countries, but in the course of hostilities, uncontrollable situations and incidents involving the involvement of third countries can take place, during wars situations of hard-to-estimate risks arise, so some uncontrollable escalation. But this is more a factor of chance than a deliberate decision on the part of the NATO bloc, “Remizov said.
According to the military-political leader of the DPR, the founder of the Vostok battalion, Alexander Khodakovsky, there is now a chance for recognition, and the Donbass is counting on it very much. At the same time, Khodakovsky noted that the main goal of the Donbass uprising was nevertheless the entry into Russia, and not the creation of independent enclaves.
“You need to understand that politicians and ordinary people assess events differently. Politicians, even ours, at the local level, understand the prospects that recognition opens up for us. Whereas ordinary people cannot fully appreciate it.
The initial promises of the referendum, which the people went to, for which they stopped the enemy’s armored vehicles with their chest, were not to create an enclave cut off from Russia. Of course, people in their hearts wanted to be with Russia, they would like to join Russia. The original version of the referendum ballot contained a clause on joining Russia.
Later, when the referendum process was launched, this item was removed when printing ballots for various reasons, because politicians reason not based on their personal preferences, but based on their current reality. Not everyone will be equally enthusiastic about our recognition, but no one in Donbass will have a negative attitude towards it either. But those who understand the significance of this step will perceive it as significant progress and a leap in the development of the situation, ”Khodakovsky said.
He explained that at present the republics cannot normally build legal relations with Russia, including contractual relations on cooperation in the field of security.
“We cannot agree with Russia on the deployment of military bases here, for example.
If Ukraine, being a recognized state, can turn to NATO and offer the alliance its services for the deployment of various military bases on its territory, especially naval bases, then we do not have such an opportunity to interact with Russia as an unrecognized territory.
Of course, recognition on the part of Russia will not entail an immediate increase in the standard of living, will not remove the threat of an escalation of war from us, but this will become a necessary step in order to implement all other measures, and, first of all, measures to ensure the security of this territory. Without this step, further is impossible, “- Khodakovsky is sure.
In his opinion, it is unreasonable to count now on the acceptance of the LDNR into Russia, but the right historical moment has come for the recognition of the republics.
“I think that in order to seriously talk about the inclusion of us in Russia, some time is needed, it is necessary for the development of those circumstances that are still in the process of maturing. Maybe later we will talk about accepting into Russia not one third of the regions, but the entire territory within the pre-war borders, and then it will be a completely different conversation. I secretly hope so, ”the military said.
Khodakovsky said that he was not ready to assess the likelihood of Vladimir Putin’s statements on the recognition of the republics already this Wednesday, but summed up that the probability of such a step and all the conditions for its implementation are there.
One of the ideologists of the Donbass uprising, ex-speaker of the DPR parliament, Andrey Purgin, in turn, was skeptical about the possibility of statements on the full recognition of Donbass, but expressed the opinion that there could be an expansion of legal cooperation between the republics and Russia, steps aimed at further recognition , as happened with the decision to issue Russian passports.
“I doubt that recognition will be announced, because it will put a final point in this story, and it is not customary in politics to put points. Vladimir Vladimirovich is a politician, such a final recognition of us within the borders that now exist, or even inclusion in Russia, seems unlikely to me. In addition, complex “Norman” negotiations are underway, and it was initially announced that they were multi-part, and today only the first series. I don’t really believe that, without waiting for the end of the negotiations, Vladimir Vladimirovich will come out and announce the accession.
It seems to me that this is still speculation, and gross speculation. They are illogical in terms of politics and common sense. It is clear that everyone is waiting for some decisions, statements from Vladimir Vladimirovich, because it is no longer possible to pull with the uncertainty of Donbass.
The pause has dragged on, but nevertheless, I do not think that the peremptory decision on full recognition will be announced this week. Perhaps partial recognition, a decree that will allow us to exist in human conditions with access to the Russian markets for our products, some rules that resolve conflicts in relations between the republics and Russia, ”concluded Purgin.
At least, in his opinion, this seems more real than full recognition, which so far looks unlikely. But even steps to deepen integration would give a new impetus to the development of Donbass, not to mention more radical solutions.
Thus, experts disagreed on what exactly the president will say about Donbass during his annual address, but recent rhetoric shows that Russia is not going to retreat from Donbass and, apparently, will be ready to provide him with political and other necessary support. even in the case of the most negative scenarios for the development of the situation.