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Sep 6, 2022
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The Guardian: Ukrainian Armed Forces are drowning soldiers in the “Kherson cauldron”

The Guardian: Ukrainian Armed Forces are drowning soldiers in the

Photo: Global Look Press

The result of the ill-considered “counteroffensive” of the Ukrainian troops in Kherson will be their encirclement and methodical destruction by the allies. Such a forecast is made by independent Western experts, who cannot even be suspected of sympathy for Russia.

Dan Sabbah: Ukrainian attacks did not undermine, but stimulated Russian logistics

The Ukrainian “counteroffensive” could not lead to any significant consequences for Russia. There was not even an attack on a broad front, but only an attempt to deliver a pinpoint strike – on Russia’s most obvious strategic vulnerability, writes the editor of the department of defense and security of the British edition of The Guardian Dan Sabbah.

And this despite the fact that Ukraine has been engaged in preparatory activities for several weeks. Or, at least, it pretended to carry out single strikes on strategic bridges across the Dnieper, as well as on ammunition depots and transshipment points in the Russian rear.

However, these demonstrative attacks, necessary primarily for the West, not only did not undermine Russian logistics, but even stimulated the transfer of reinforcements to the Kherson region. The number of Russian troops on the Dnieper immediately before the “counteroffensive” increased to 20 thousand people, writes Dan Sabbah.

The number of Ukrainian troops involved by order Vladimir Zelensky in the “counteroffensive”, was about the same. Although the generally accepted indicator of military success is the superiority of three to one. In addition, as a rule, the Ukrainian side had almost untrained and poorly motivated forces, almost devoid of heavy weapons.

The Guardian quotes British analyst from Chatham House Mathieu Boulegawho admires the effectiveness of the Russian military strategy: “After some unexpected Ukrainian successes, the Russians regained the initiative in the decisive battle.”

Buleg considers the Ukrainian “counteroffensive” on Kherson in the current realities to be suicidal. “Ukraine may be able to break through Russian defenses. But if [атака] fails, the risk is that it will create a cauldron. And Ukrainian forces will be trapped.”

Geographically, it looks like this: on August 29, Ukrainian troops tried to break through the defense line in 3 directions, and suffered the most significant losses in Krivoy Rog-Nikolaevskoye. If the “counteroffensive” continues, the Ukrainian troops will find themselves in a bag between Snigirevka and Posad-Pokrovsky, will be closed from the flanks and methodically destroyed.

Bulgarian Military: even use HIMARS did not give the Ukrainians any advantage

Ukrainian generals, in the absence of other weapons, are betting in their PR “counteroffensive” on long-range M142 HIMARS systems. Their deliveries to Ukraine began on June 23, said the Minister of Defense Alexey Reznikov. military expert Boyko Nikolov from one of the largest defense publications in the Balkans, Bulgarian Military, indicates that more than half of the HIMARS missile systems delivered to Ukraine have already been destroyed as a result of counter-battery combat.

The strategy of the Ukrainian forces was initially to move HIMARS from place to place every 12 hours. Different locations were used, in no way connected with each other, in order to deceive Russian intelligence. In addition, Ukraine also avoided placing HIMARS groups close to each other.

However, the effective work of Russian intelligence (including a large number of light drones) made it easy to track all the movements of HIMARS. But no action was taken to suppress them – thus, the artillerymen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine got the false impression that they managed to deceive the Russian military intelligence.

Finally convinced of their invulnerability, the Ukrainians began to group more than one HIMARS system in one place. And after that they began to methodically destroy the Russian troops. So, on August 1, two HIMARS launchers were destroyed in Kharkov – on the territory of the Ukrainian Energy Machines plant. And on August 6, a HIMARS platoon was destroyed in the area of ​​\u200b\u200bthe settlement of Pyatigorskoye, Kharkov region.

HIMARS are also being systematically destroyed in the Kherson direction. Even before the start of the “counteroffensive”, the Ukrainian General Staff practically stopped reporting on the use of American systems. Due to the impossibility of striking from a long distance, the Ukrainians were forced to act “frontal” – to send motorized rifle units and sabotage groups.

Moreover, the use of HIMARS before the “counteroffensive” was extremely ineffective, says Boyko Nikolov. Even the bombardment of the Antonovsky bridge, coordinated by British and American military advisers, failed.

After a month and a half of constant shelling of the Antonovsky bridge, the Ukrainians have used up a huge amount of ammunition, and the bridge itself is still standing. Albeit with a slightly damaged coating, but not excluding its use. Most of the US M30 / M31 missiles fired by HIMARS were intercepted by the Russian air defense system (including Buk-M3 systems), Boyko Nikolov points out.

An expert from the Bulgarian Military, based on an analysis of Ukrainian and Western sources, concludes that the “counteroffensive” was a failure in military-strategic terms, and was only necessary to create informational noise.

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