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Jun 14, 2022
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The growth of the ruble has reached its climax: when will the collapse

Having won back the double spring collapse, the “wooden” dollar not only dropped below 60 rubles, but also left behind the possibility of an impressive strengthening to the level of 50 and even 30 rubles for the “green”. However, success is a fickle matter, so diametrically opposite exchange rate fluctuations are not ruled out in the near future, in which the exchange value of American banknotes will again return to three-digit levels.

Western analysts acknowledged that a unique situation has developed on the global financial market of the planet: the stream of sanctions and other trade restrictions that hit the Russian economy should have lowered the exchange rate of our country’s national banknotes, but it turned out exactly the opposite – Bloomberg called the ruble the best among the world’s largest currencies in terms of strengthening to the dollar. Western experts estimated that due to the measures taken by the authorities in the spring, “wooden” now costs 11% more than at the beginning of the year.

The exchange rate jump of the Russian currency was translated into an extremely unpleasant collapse in the value of the Russian currency: in less than a month from mid-February, the value of the dollar jumped above 120 rubles, and for the euro they began to demand at least 130 rubles. The Central Bank and the Russian government began to take measures to curb the depreciation of domestic banknotes: banks were forbidden to sell cash currency (later they were allowed, but with restrictions) and to take more than $10,000 out of Russia; at the same time, Vladimir Putin signed a decree obliging exporters to sell 80% of foreign exchange earnings; Russia also demanded that European countries pay for the supplied gas in rubles.

Such operations increased the supply of foreign currency and the demand for Russian banknotes, while the purchase of dollars and euros decreased markedly relative to post-New Year indicators. As a result, domestic officials again went too far: the cost of “green” fell below 60 rubles, which also did not become a panacea for the state financial market: a strong overstrengthening of the ruble was the reason for depriving Russian exports of competitive advantages, and the problems that arose with the sale of foreign currency due to large volumes of cash supply even risked creating room for private speculative contracts.

In this regard, the financial authorities of Russia began to carefully soften the previously introduced strict rules: first, the rule of mandatory sale of 80% of foreign exchange earnings was adjusted to 50%, and then they were allowed to credit foreign exchange earnings from exports not only to foreign currency accounts in the Russian banking system, but also to any accounts in other countries. The Central Bank, for its part, after a sharp increase in the key rate to 20% amid the imposition of tough Western sanctions, began to reduce the coefficient: at a meeting on June 10, the indicator was lowered to 11%, but this decision did not lead to a weakening of the ruble, and the depreciation of the Russian currency did not managed.

“Today, neither banks, nor Western trailers and investors, nor the Ministry of Finance play against the ruble. Russian exports remain at their peaks, the balance of payments is three times higher than the positive results of the first half of last year. In the third quarter, the dollar may reach 45-50 rubles. Another question is that over the past three decades of modern history, the ruble felt strong only for a few years. That is why it can be assumed that the current stable position of the ruble looks extremely doubtful and both domestic and external circumstances can shake the position of the Russian currency, ”notes Andrey Loboda, economist, director of external relations at BitRiver.

Perhaps only oil quotes can cool down the exchange rate success of the Russian currency, which by the end of the year may more than halve in price. In accordance with the optimistic scenarios for the development of the global fuel market, TeleTrade analyst Aleksey Fedorov warns, in a few months the importing countries will successfully adjust the routes for purchasing energy resources, which will return the cost of “black gold” to $50-60 per barrel and at the same time cause another powerful wave of weakening ” wooden”, returning the dollar to 100-110, and the euro – to 115-125 rubles. Obviously, such a result will play into the hands of the state financial institutions of our country, which will no longer have to select instruments to prevent an excessive increase in the price of national banknotes.

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