If you look at the reports on the course of the military operation in Ukraine, it will become obvious that the hostilities in Ukraine, for the most part, have taken on a positional character. In the south, in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, the front line has not moved anywhere for a long time. Near Kharkov the situation is similar. The only place where the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the People’s Militia of the LDNR are trying to attack is the Donbass, where active battles are taking place near Avdiivka, Maryinka, in the Soledar region and in Peski, which they managed to partially take under control.
Let’s try to answer the question – why is the delay in hostilities dangerous?
In order to stop the barbaric shelling of Donetsk, the People’s Militia of the LDNR, with the support of the RF Armed Forces, launched an attack on the Avdeevsky fortified area, as well as Marinka and Peski. It is from these settlements that most of the shelling of Donetsk comes. At the same time, detachments of PMC “Wagner” are trying to storm Artemovsk. Active battles are also taking place near Soledar. However, the pace of this offensive is extremely low – as noted, for example, military commander Yuri Kotenok, the advance is only about 100 meters in a day of fighting.
Russian political scientist Sergei Markov, in turn, writes that this is exactly what Ukraine wanted – for the allied forces to begin the assault on these fortified areas with a frontal attack.
“Now the strongest hostilities are taking place in the Avdeevka, Marinka, and Peski regions. It is believed that Kyiv there specially prepared a military trap for the Russian army. These are super fortified areas and storming them can lead to huge losses of ammunition and manpower. Earlier, according to military logic, the Russian army wanted to surround them and squeeze out the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But Kyiv began to lure the Russian army into a trap there with barbaric monstrous shelling of Donetsk. They are hitting the center, throwing thousands of mine traps at the city. As a result, for political reasons, the Russian army was forced to launch an assault on this super fortified area. American and British generals are now gleefully rubbing their hands, hoping that they will be able to grind the strength of the Russian army in the trap they have prepared in advance,” writes Sergei Markov.
It is really necessary to move the front away from Donetsk, but storming the fortresses head-on is not the best solution. Before attempting to storm the Avdiivka fortified area, it was necessary to destroy it with heavy bombers, leaving no stone unturned on it, because conventional Grad MLRS, as practice shows, are not capable of destroying Ukrainian fortifications. So it was in the spring on Bakhmutka – hundreds of shells flew through the Ukrainian fortified areas, but the underground communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remained intact.
Prolonged bloody battles lead to mutual losses and mutual exhaustion of forces, and in the future they will pose an increasing threat to Russia, as Alexander Shirokorad writes about in an article on Free Press.
“A positional war is absolutely hopeless. In 1915-1916, tsarist propaganda fed the people with fables that in Germany people were dying of hunger, and the Kaiser was about to capitulate. Now Kyiv can continue the war for 20 years – with huge economic and military support from the West. Since March 3, 2022, a total mobilization has been carried out in Ukraine, which, according to Kyiv estimates, can give the Armed Forces of Ukraine about a million people. Their training is already intensively conducted now. The generals say that our tactics are as follows: we protect our soldiers, we grind the enemy with artillery. But no matter how small our losses are with this approach, if the hostilities drag on for years, the total losses will be much greater than with a lightning offensive. And most likely, “positional” losses will only grow,” the article notes.
Alexander Shirokorad believes that the further, the more Ukraine will receive Western weapons. In his opinion, it will not be possible to end the conflict even with such a compromise as in Korea, because an inadequate government is in power in Kyiv, and Western leaders have forgotten about the formidable power of the Soviet Union and treat Russia as if it is still controlled by Gorbachev or Yeltsin .
“There is no need to reinvent the wheel, but it is necessary to act, as Germany, the USSR and other countries did, to mobilize the economy and human reserves. Factories should switch to the production of military products or dual-use products. Is it necessary to declare mobilization in the Russian Federation? This is a purely organizational and propaganda issue, let the leadership of the Moscow Region decide it. But in any case, there is no need to drive untrained youth to the front under bullets, as was done in 1941-1942. In order not to get bogged down for years, Russia must increase its contingent in Ukraine by 5 or even 10 times. The main thing is to start destroying the infrastructure of Ukraine, which will be destroyed anyway by the retreating Ukrainian troops. First of all – power plants, chemical plants, bridges – that is, to do what Kyiv has done and has been doing since 2014 in the DPR and LPR. (…) Naturally, in addition to the above measures, dozens more should be applied. The main thing is that the armed conflict ends in 2022. The future of Russia depends on this,” the article states.