Aug 17, 2022
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The debts of the population show obscene growth – what does this threaten Russia with

The debts of the population show obscene growth - what does this threaten Russia with

Photo: Anton Novoderezhkin / TASS

After the spring lull, there is again a rush in the lending market for the population, people are borrowing money, like the last time. Monthly growth in terms of annual indicators amounted to 150%, and, apparently, this is not the limit. The results of August may turn out to be even more impressive, since children need to be collected for school, and most Russians are now very poor with finances. There is nowhere to go, which is why people climb into debt bondage.

According to the National Bureau of Credit History (NBCH), the average size of consumer loans in July 2022 increased significantly.

“After falling in March-April of this year, the average size of issued consumer loans (loans for the purchase of consumer goods) has been growing for the third month in a row. At the same time, in July 2022, the average consumer loan amounted to 260.4 thousand rubles, having increased by 11.9% compared to the previous month (in June 2022 – 232.6 thousand rubles),” the NBKI said in a statement.

According to the same source, in July 2022, the average consumer loan amount almost returned to last year’s level, it is only 3.7% less than in July 2021 (then it was 270.3 thousand rubles).

The figures are, of course, interesting, but what do we have in dynamics – over the years? For example, in 2017 it was only 120 thousand rubles, in 2018 it was already 180 thousand rubles. A year later, the figure exceeded two hundred thousand rubles, and now it is confidently approaching three hundred thousand rubles.

The largest consumer loans are taken in the capital, which is not surprising – the average amount is more than 500 thousand rubles. However, it is not Moscow that gives rise to growth, where it amounted to only 2.8%. The “depressed” regions are in the lead, for example, in Bashkiria the average amount increased by 24.1%, in the Saratov region – by 17.5%, in the Irkutsk region – by 17.2%, in the Altai Territory – by 16.9%. Why, perhaps, it is not necessary to explain.

“After a sharp decline in March-April 2022, the average consumer loan bill in the following months almost recovered to last year’s levels and the level of the beginning of the year. Moreover, this happened against the backdrop of a significant increase in the issuance of consumer loans in April-July, which is primarily due to a decrease in the key rate of the Bank of Russia and the subsequent reduction in market rates,” says NBKI Marketing Director Alexey Volkov.

Perhaps this is partly true. However, the growth in lending to the population is not at all a sign of prosperity in the country, rather, on the contrary. Compared to 2017, the average loan amount has more than doubled, which is evidence that people have begun to live just as poorer.

“From the second quarter of 2022, real income, according to our calculations, will decrease by another 10%. As a result, they will be 20% lower than the level of 2012 and 2013. Accordingly, the final consumption of households will also decrease significantly. 18% of Russians live on a beggarly level. These are people who think what to buy to eat. Let’s just count – 13 thousand rubles per capita. One and a half thousand tax, remains 11.5 thousand. Among them are utilities. On average, according to research, this category takes 16% to pay for housing. On hand remains 9.5 thousand rubles for a month! Approximately 300 rubles a day – for all remaining expenses, ”says Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Economics Abel Aganbegyan.

It is curious, but for some reason the famous academician does not use data on the income of the population from Rosstat. Where the average salary in the country is 66,757 rubles and other nonsense. What is it for?

No less interesting figures sometimes appear in the documents of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. Thus, data are provided that in July 2022, a decrease in income from corporate income tax by as much as 32% was recorded. What does it say? And the fact that the Russian economy has already confidently entered the peak. Despite the optimistic incantations of the authorities, production stands up, and people remain without work or without wages. The same Abel Aganbegyan predicts a doubling of unemployment this autumn, including “hidden”, which our authorities do not take into account at all.

“We studied a special category of the population – those who, due to sanctions, either received a pay cut (13%), or they stopped being paid (1%), or were fired altogether (1%). In total, this group makes up 15% of the population, which is not so small,” says the project director of the FOM group Ludmila Presnyakova.

No one believes in Rosstat’s 4% or so unemployment, as well as in indicators of inflation, price increases, and everything else. And the rate of increase in lending is especially clear evidence of how much the real incomes of the population are now falling every month.

And then it will only get worse.

“Reducing the cost of raw materials for Russia is not the best challenge, given the blocking sanctions and the embargo on commodities. Falling commodity prices will accelerate Russia’s recession and subsequent economic downturn. Now the risks of a recession in Russia are huge, much higher than the risk of a US recession,” explains the financial expert Artem Zvezdin.

Our country practically does not produce anything, almost all means of production and consumer goods are imported. Even from Turkey, which cannot be considered the flagship of the world economy. However, the fact is obvious: Russia sells only energy carriers, metals in ingots and other raw materials to the Ottomans, but Turkish imports to our country consist of 20% textile products and 23% machinery and industrial equipment. Plus household appliances, food products (made from Russian raw materials!), And so on. The analysis of export-import has already caused a gnashing of teeth of the authorities. But, alas, you can’t argue against the facts.

The authorities categorically do not want to change anything, the industry is not developing, on the contrary, it is dying. And every day faster and faster. People see it and prefer to act. Even those who have no money. And the recipe is simple. That is, to collect money from banks, buy everything you need for them, and then come what may.

According to the First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousovconsumer demand in Russia is now at its lowest point. According to him, for two quarters in a row, the volume of purchases decreased by 10% each time. That is, in aggregate, it fell by 20%. Also, by the way, a very good indicator of the impoverishment of the Russian people. However, the official’s optimism is not justified by anything, the bottom is far away, the worst can begin in the fall. This, in particular, is stated in the forecasts of the Central Bank.

Along with the volume of loans issued, the share of overdue debts of citizens of the Russian Federation is also growing, which has already become a huge problem. In fact, many of those who issue loans today are not going to repay them at all. Judging by the mood of citizens, they want to be in time “before it starts”, and they are sure that then their debts will be written off. Boldly, of course, but these hopes are by no means unfounded.

The country is clearly waiting for something, and not to say that it is very bad. Very soon, this fall. Yes, people are aware of the coming trials in the form of unemployment, rising prices and an even deeper decline in the economy. But from somewhere there is confidence that the light at the end of the tunnel has already appeared.

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