Will the exchange rate of the Russian currency weaken to 70 rubles per dollar in the financial market, or, on the contrary, will it grow? “MN” summarized some expert opinions on this topic.
There are quite a few people in Russia today who were actively buying foreign currency in the spring, counting on some “coming upheavals”. However, they did not happen, and if anything is considered a real shock, it is the unprecedented strengthening of the ruble and the depreciation of currencies in the Russian Federation. With anxiety, their condition is now being monitored by those who keep the stocked bucks in the hope of better times. And they don’t want to grow up. For example, it got to the point that a week ago the market rates of the dollar and the euro were practically equal – 59.82 and 59.62 rubles, respectively.
Much has been said about the fact that such a course is unprofitable for the Russian budget, since people are still paid salaries in rubles, all social payments are also in rubles. Therefore, the goal of the Russian government is to establish a balanced and useful budget rate of 70 rubles.
Of course, our financial officials are concerned about the growing budget holes. They are doing their best to weaken the ruble. Rumor has it that the Russian Ministry of Finance may resume foreign exchange intervention. Therefore, it is possible to achieve a full-fledged exchange rate of the ruble (the same about 70 rubles per dollar) if in September the Ministry of Finance begins to actively buy foreign currency on the domestic market. But will this measure be applied and to what extent? The question is still being discussed and remains open, as, accordingly, the question of the exchange rate with the ruble.
Market analysts say that in the coming September “the exchange rate of the Russian currency will be determined primarily by the ratio of foreign exchange earnings from exporters and demand for it, mainly for imports” (TeleTrade, Mark Goykhman). After all, money and the market depend on each other. And in Russian trade, a further depletion of previously accumulated stocks of goods is expected. As for production, everything is very difficult there, there are attempts to form new supply chains. But how successful and effective will they be, how much will it be possible to replace technologies, and not just goods, that have fallen due to sanctions?
Based on these real prerequisites, experts expect that, together with the efforts of the government, all this will play on the depreciation of the ruble, but not below the level of 58-59 rubles.
The dollar will be able to reach the milestone of 70 rubles only by October, and then only because the Ministry of Finance has set such a goal and will make every effort to achieve this.
– The unfolding global crisis in the US and Europe will ultimately lead to the fact that confidence in the dollar will be completely undermined. They have been experiencing huge inflation for a long time, as you know, and it will inevitably and soon spill over into stagflation, and then into recession. The rapid deterioration of affairs in the US economy at first will sharply raise the price of the dollar for some time. Its rate will begin to grow due to the fact that investors around the world who are in a panic will buy the currency. But do not look at their first reaction in the form of dollar purchases. After it becomes clear that the American economy is no longer a “tenant” after the crisis, investors will start to exit this asset together and look for a replacement. That’s when the dollar and roll downhill. In the short-term historical perspective, green will never return to its previous values, as the US and European economies will experience a long depression.