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Jan 3, 2022
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The Chinese listened to the US Secretary of State for half an hour, got up and left

The Chinese listened to the US Secretary of State for half an hour, got up and left

Photo: Sergey Bobylev / TASS

The coronavirus pandemic as a factor affecting the political situation, negotiations Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden, Russia’s demands to the West for security guarantees, elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation, the protracted certification of Nord Stream 2, which has long been held hostage to geopolitics, were among the landmark events of the outgoing year. What does the coming political year have in store for us?

Director General of the Institute of Regional Problems Dmitry Zhuravlev believes that old trends will not go away immediately and will continue in the coming year.

– I do not mean a pandemic. May God grant her to leave as soon as possible, but the political and economic processes will be approximately the same as now. There will be many problems, but there will also be movement forward.

As for the political process, there are people who would like to make it more tense, but I still don’t see the boiling point. Maybe she’s far away, or maybe she’s just not there. In any war, it is important where the Reichstag is, where is the point at which you can stick a flag and say that “we won.”

For all the dissatisfied, there is no such Reichstag, because they are dissatisfied with social issues rather than political ones, therefore, when they are politicized, and this is an almost objective process, questions immediately arise. It is not always clear against whom, for whom to fight.

“SP”: – That is, domestic policy is important?

– It is important that concerns social issues. Poverty is the most important thing. If we manage to overcome this poverty … The difficulty is that, since 1991, we have been adopting and transferring Western methods of solving problems. They work in the West and even in Eastern Europe. But all of these methods are good for a certain level of life. At our standard of living, they have a negative effect. Not because someone is bad and misplaced it, but because this is not about us.

Market revitalization, medium-sized businesses and so on – it’s all great when there is a buyer. And if it is not? This is the difficulty. Therefore, the main trend is poverty.

“SP”: – Considering that social issues are very important and tense, can’t this develop into a serious social explosion?

– Bursts as a purely emotional response to “there is nothing to eat, took to the streets” are possible. But the really poor people are not politically active. The middle class is politically active. The poor seeks bread, not freedoms. Another question: when they realize that there is no bread to be found, there may be difficulties. But this is purely emotional, they do not have a Reichstag. They are not “for”, they are “against”, and with such a position, there are no revolutions.

It all comes down to the fact that everyone says how bad everything is in the social sphere, but no one says: in order to be good, you need to do this. We try all the time, but something doesn’t work out.

“SP”: – What can we expect in foreign policy?

– Now they love to talk about the war with Ukraine, but elephants do not fight with hares. One warhead of our strategic missile is enough to leave scorched earth in place of Ukraine. I am by no means encouraged to use nuclear weapons! Two landing divisions are enough for us to have no Ukrainian army. Strictly speaking, it is not even now. They fight well with grandmothers.

The Americans will not fight, let alone the Ukrainians … Biden, despite the enormous pressure on him, said that NATO troops would not be on the territory of Ukraine.

Provocations are possible. It is possible that the provocation will get out of control. There will be problems, we will get more sanctions. And since Germany is now 50-50 to us, the first sanctions strike will be on the gas pipeline (Nord Stream-2).

“SP”: – In a few days, negotiations between Russia and the United States should take place, although attempts to thwart them are taking place. So will they take place and what to expect?

– Negotiations will take place because American voters want it. Half of the negotiations with Biden were about nothing, but they are going on, and on the initiative of the American side. And there is nothing to say, but they ask to talk, because the American voter stands on a strange, from our point of view, but habitual position for him: the Russians are bastards and the main enemies of America, they must be limited by all means, but you cannot fight them, therefore they need to talk and agree on military issues!

The cowboy attitude towards the USSR was absent by the end of the 50s, and in relation to Russia it ended in 2010.

If in the 90s the Americans had the feeling that they were all one hat, then it passed. The Americans have a contradictory position: they are ready to talk in order to demonstrate the desire for peace, but at the same time they are not ready to concede in anything and want to be second only to them.

There will be conversations again, we will reach an agreement in the field of armaments, but in no other area, most likely, we will not agree.

Chinese left the secretary of state Anthony Blinkenbecause he negotiated the way it is now customary in America: he sat the Chinese at the table and began to give valuable instructions on how to live. The Chinese listened for half an hour, got up and left. Do you think they want to talk to us differently?

For Americans, negotiation is when they give directions, and everyone hears their wise words. They are sincere because they believe that they are the ideal, and that everyone should hear their truth and realize it.

“SP”: – That is, it is quite possible that ours will also get up and leave with the words from the children’s song “teach better than your spiders”?

– I think we have enough endurance to listen. We are more polite, the Chinese are more self-directed. For them, the interlocutor who talks about something is completely redundant. And we all the time want not to offend, so we will listen to the end, but will we agree on something?

In the opinion German political scientist, Dr. Grigor SpitsenDespite a number of political exacerbations at the end of this year and the apocalyptic forecasts of some experts, in 2022 one should hardly expect global conflicts between the leading world powers.

– First of all, the new year will be characterized by a weakening of the positions of political eco-activists around the world. As the beginning of the winter season in Europe has shown, the energy transition and the related plans to transfer European energy to “green” rails by 2030 turned out to be strongly overestimated.

Overestimated to such an extent that in a number of countries abandoned coal mines had to be reactivated and returned to the debate about whether nuclear and gas energy is environmentally friendly. A couple of years ago, this was completely unthinkable for the European political agenda.

SP: Will this somehow reduce political tension around Nord Stream 2?

– The political position of the European Greens is gradually becoming less radical. Nord Stream 2 will definitely be launched in 2022, since this project is critically important for German business: the only question is the exact date of its launch. The cold heating season and exorbitant gas prices simply leave Germany with no other alternative.

“SP”: – Should we expect an increase in tension around Ukraine and, as a result, new sanctions?

– The Ukrainian problem is also unlikely to be solved by force of arms. It seems that Presidents Putin and Biden have reached an agreement in principle on Ukraine, although for obvious reasons they cannot voice all the details of the agreement.

One thing is clear – Ukraine has not received a carte blanche of Western leaders for the military operation in Donbass, and without political and military support from the United States and the EU, it is doomed to failure in advance. However, the president Zelensky continues to lose its rating, and in such a situation, politicians in Ukraine, as recent history shows, are capable of unpredictable political steps.

An increase in Western sanctions against the Russian Federation is also unlikely. They most likely will not bring a significant result, and neither President Biden, who seems to be constructive, nor the Chancellor wants to risk a further deterioration in relations with Moscow Scholzwho decided to focus on the economy and the fight against the pandemic.

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