Oct 4, 2021
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“Termination of the Shrew”: Stopping gas transit will soon divide Ukraine into zero

Photo: Valery Sharifulin / TASS

After the transit of natural gas through the territory of Ukraine in Hungary was stopped from the beginning of the new gas day on October 1, 2021 due to the new agreements between the latter and Gazprom, representatives of the gas transportation system of Ukraine stated that the country would no longer be able to buy gas “via virtual reverse “in this thread. At the same time, they emphasized that as a result, not only Hungary itself, but also the European Union in general, may have some serious problems because of this.

Already on the morning of Monday, October 4, the press began to appear in the press that the supply of Russian natural gas through the “Square” to Hungary was resumed. The Hungarian operator of the GTS FGSZ was indicated as the primary source of this information, which, in particular, reported that on October 2, 2.31 million cubic meters of gas were supplied through the Ukrainian border gas metering station “Beregovo”, and on October 3, continuous supplies were continued.

The Ukrainian side, however, almost immediately denied these statements. At least, this is exactly what the head of the company “Operator of GTS of Ukraine” said in social networks. Sergey Makogon

“This is not true. Yes, now there is an insignificant flow of gas from Ukraine to Hungary, but this is not transit, but the re-export of gas by European traders, which they stored in Ukrainian UGS facilities (underground gas storage facilities – editor’s note), ”he wrote.

“SP” tried to find out where the truth is in this murky story, and how it will ultimately end.

Looking ahead, it can be noted that the likely scenario of the development of events, indeed, looks rather apocalyptic.

For example, the chairman of the Federation Council Commission on Information Policy Alexey Pushkov in social networks predicted the sad future of the Ukrainian gas transportation system.

He noted that all European support for Kiev remains only in words, since in fact the Balkan countries and Austria receive gas bypassing Ukraine through the South Stream, and Hungary has recently joined them.

“Other countries will soon join them. A sad future awaits the Ukrainian GTS, ”he noted. But this, it seems, is only the first lightning of the impending thunderstorm.

“Let’s first refresh our memory that according to information from Gazprom itself, the annual volume of our gas supplies to Hungary is about 8.8 billion cubic meters, and until recently the largest part of this resource went through Ukraine,” he recalled. political scientist Alexey Anpilogov… – According to the diversification of this flow under the new contract, Hungary will receive about 4.5 billion cubic meters of this volume through the Turkish Stream. Everything else, about 3-4 billion cubic meters, Hungary will continue to receive according to the old scheme. It is still economically beneficial for her, as, say, for Slovakia.

“SP”: – But what about the statements of Ukrainian gas workers that the pumping that is now going on at the Hungarian border is the gas of European traders?

– I admit that they could have stored something there in the Ukrainian underground storage facilities. But, as I think, the point is that the current Kiev regime under no circumstances admits that this is Russian gas. It will be listed as anything – European, Slovak, Polish, and so on, but this paper accounting will not change the essence. In the underground storage facilities of the “Nezalezhnaya” there is precisely Russian gas, although formally owned by all Maltese, Luxembourgish, and also other “great gas suppliers” like the Jersey Islands. The fact that it is now being raised simply means the start of the “high season” of consumption.

“SP”: – That is, Ukraine still manages to maintain its interest in the transit of gas to Europe?

– The volume that the GTSU retained means a reduction in corruption and non-transparent schemes for gas reversal, which were fed by the ruling Ukrainian elites, Kolomoisky, Akhmedova and other oligarchs, the struggle of Kiev with which ended in fact at the landing Medvedchuk

Considering that any gas transportation system has so-called irreducible costs that ensure its fundamental viability, the weight loss of one of the most important for Ukraine “Hungarian transit” in fact by 50% means that “Independent” is very close to this critical limit. And if we also take into account the fact that the gas transportation system of Ukraine itself is very old, and its quality indicators are appropriate, then you need to understand that “Ukrainian traffic”, figuratively speaking, has turned into a suitcase not just without a handle, but also greased solid oil, so it’s extremely inconvenient for anyone to carry it.

“SP”: – So it’s easier, probably, to leave him already?

– Russia and Gazprom are no longer responsible for this suitcase. The European Union, in fact, does not need Ukraine in itself either. Europe is only interested in cheap labor and resources that can be taken out from there.

But this is also a problem in the “Square”. There is simply a deadly situation with a transit oil pipeline, from where the Kiev regime completely pumped out all the oil, even technical. And there is no one to pour these 6 million tons of “black gold” into it. There is an absolute catastrophe with railroad communication, Kiev does not have wagons for transporting even its own grain, not to mention some transit cargo, which are switched to other schemes wherever possible, regardless of the size of the costs.

I would not be surprised if the Kiev regime, having survived a severe moral breakdown, soon begins to beg for electricity from us. But this is all, in my deep conviction, only the first flowers of what we may soon see in Ukraine.

“SP”: – What could it be?

– I strongly suspect that the future of modern Ukraine is very sad. There is reason to believe that its territory will continue to shrink further, not limited to Crimea and Donbass. Let’s remember how in the 19th century the failed Rzeczpospolita was ultimately divided by zero, as a result of which the borders of the German, Austro-Hungarian and Russian empires converged at one point. And only the formation of a national Polish policy, fundamentally different in its essence from the phantom-painful Rzeczpospolita, allowed modern Poland to be reborn.

Approximately the same, from my point of view, will sooner or later happen with today’s Ukraine, because such a “black hole” in the middle of Europe historically cannot exist for a long time. It will be shared, in my opinion, by those who can offer at least something in terms of caring for the local population. So the whole question here, I think, is not that Ukraine will be divided, but in what form it will take place. I would like, of course, if this would be done without any war and bloodshed in general.

“SP”: – That is, as an independent state, Ukraine, it turns out, is no longer able to exist after such an undermining of the economic basis of its sovereignty?

– Well, why. Maybe. But for this, it seems to me, it must go through some kind of national catastrophe, comparable in scale to the Polish one. Until the official Kiev ceases to rave about some completely insane projects about “Great Ukraine”, does not stop dreaming of all sorts of “Kuban annexes”, this, alas, is impossible. Unfortunately, the country simply does not have a national idea now.

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