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Jun 23, 2022
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“Suwalki corridor”: Putin is teased in vain by the blockade of Kaliningrad

Photo: LEhAN / wikimedia.org

Poland, being under the protection of NATO, does not see the prospect of aggression from Russia against it, but is worried about the so-called “Suwalki corridor”, said the Prime Minister of this country Mateusz Morawiecki.

“Poland is a member of the most powerful military alliance in the history of the world. I do not think that Russia will dare to raise a hand against the strongest alliance,” Morawiecki said. At the same time, he noted that he considers the most vulnerable direction from a military point of view is the hypothetical “Suwalki corridor” – a section of territory in the north-east of Poland, which is located between Belarus and the Kaliningrad region of Russia, its length is about 100 kilometers.

“From a strategic point of view, based on the location of the Kaliningrad region, NATO strategists consider the Suwalki Corridor to be one of the critical places on the map of the Alliance. This point is taken under special attention, both in the plans of NATO and in our internal military plans.

Therefore, our military presence there, the presence of our military units is very strong. There, also, near the Suwalki Corridor, there are NATO international forces, so our security is appropriate and adequate,” Morawiecki said.

If it is appropriate and adequate, why worry? Recall that they invented the very concept of “Suwalki corridor” themselves, Russia never announced it aloud and about the possibility of its creation. Nevertheless, the last clearly unfriendly actions of Lithuania (and this is hardly an initiative of Vilnius, under the pretext of implementing sanctions, it partially blocked the transit of goods to the Kaliningrad region, thus organizing a partial blockade of the Russian exclave.

By the way, Russian experts agree that in the event of a complete blockade, the corridor will have to be created.

“The shortest line between the Belarusian city of Grodno and the city of Gusev in the Kaliningrad region passes through the Polish city of Suwalki,” recalls historian, publicist, permanent expert of the Izborsk club Alexander Dmitrievsky.

— But the direct route on the map is not always the most convenient in reality: there are a lot of forests and water barriers in this area. Therefore, in reality, this route runs somewhat to the east – in the south-west of Lithuania.

“SP”: – Where did this legend about the “Suwalki corridor” come from, which never existed in reality? Who launched it and for what purpose?

– This is not so much a legend as the most likely, at least in theory, scenario for the land deblockade of the Kaliningrad region in case it is under siege by the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance.

Let’s be realistic: breaking the blockade by sea through enemy-controlled waters is an extremely difficult task, especially in the Baltic, and the experience of two world wars is clear evidence of this. Therefore, there is simply no alternative to the land option. And if you look at the map of the transport network, then in the event of the de-blockade of Kaliningrad, Lithuanian territory will be more affected than Polish territory.

“SP”: – Let’s imagine that Russia breaks through this corridor. US starts nuclear war?

“Nuclear weapons are the last resort. Let’s start with the fact that the United States and Russia each have about one and a half thousand nuclear warheads, which is several times less than it was at the peak of the Cold War, so it is unlikely that anyone will scatter such expensive ammunition.

“SP”: – And what if Poland itself attacks? Today, many experts believe that the United States, seeing the victory of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, can open a “second front”…

– A distracting maneuver of the West may be not so much Kaliningrad as the most painful point, but also an attempt to cut off Belarus from Russia: for example, strike from the regions of the Latvian Daugavpils in the direction of Polotsk. However, this is already the exit of the war directly to the western borders of Russia, so it is unlikely that NATO will play with fire here. But the United States and its satellites may well draw Belarus into the conflict on the western borders.

An equally likely option is at least a partial “Anschluss” of Ukraine by Warsaw. Considering that on almost the entire Right Bank of the Dnieper, which was once part of the Commonwealth, Warsaw has long placed its “fifth column” in key positions in the leadership, from the municipal level and above, and everything is already ready to change the plates on the doors of offices and flags above the executive committees, then I do not exclude that the Polish army will be met there with flowers.

But this is unlikely to happen before the catastrophe of the Ukrainian troops in the Donbass, otherwise such a move by Warsaw will be perceived by Kyiv not even as a disservice, but as a stab in the back.

“The Suwalki Corridor is not a scarecrow for the Poles. This is what Russia must do, – I am convinced Doctor of Philology, military-political expert Vladimir Sapunov.

“SP”: – Actually, they are pushing us towards this by actions to blockade Kaliningrad. If they also close the Baltic Sea, then we simply have no choice, right?

– Do you have other options – how to break through the blockade of Kaliningrad, except for the Suwalki corridor? And I don’t.

“SP”: – According to Morawiecki, Poland, being under the protection of NATO, does not see the prospect of aggression from Russia against it, but is worried about the “Suwalki corridor”. What are they worried about? Or are they not sure that the United States will fight for them? Can they just not give a damn about the fifth article so as not to get involved in a nuclear war?

“We need to think not about how the US will react, but how to avoid a blockade of the Russian region. It is necessary to think not about a nuclear war, but about the lake area in the area of ​​the “Suwalki corridor”. How to punch and establish control over it. Washington will not go to a nuclear war because of the Suwalki Gap. And Article 5 will not apply.

But in order to establish control over the corridor – you still need to work hard – it is in a lowland – and for complete control you will still need to take all the hilly terrain around.

“SP”: – Today, many experts believe that the United States, seeing the victory of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, can open a “second front”, naming the Baltic as such, they say, the events around Kaliningrad are preparation. Is it possible to agree with this? Will we and they pull these two fronts?

– This is understood in the General Staff of the Armed Forces.

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