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Jun 23, 2022
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Strike on Lithuania with the consent of the UN: the United States decided to test Russia.

Moscow regarded the actions of Vilnius to ban the transit of goods through the territory of the republic as a provocation and a violation of international law, calling them “openly hostile.” And in the Federation Council they said that Russia now “has a free hand.” How can we respond and how will this blocking affect the westernmost region of the country?

A small Baltic state with a population of 2.7 million inhabitants and an armed force of 30 thousand people, occupying a territory smaller than the area of ​​Stavropol Krai, for example, actually acted as a provocateur of the start of the third world war between Russia and NATO.

From midnight on June 18, Lithuania announced a ban on the transit through its territory from “mainland” Russia to the Kaliningrad region of a significant list of goods subject to EU sanctions. As Anton Alikhanov, the governor of the country’s westernmost region, clarified, we are talking about about half of everything that came there by rail.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs called Lithuania’s prank “openly hostile” and demanded that the extravagant decision be reversed, warning that otherwise Moscow reserves the right to act to protect national interests.

The experts clarified that this could include, among other things, the right of the state to resort to the use of military force. After all, in fact, the Baltic republic imposed a blockade of the Kaliningrad region, which means that there is a threat to our national security. However, Lithuania is a member of the North Atlantic Alliance, which guarantees the collective protection of all who are members of this organization.

“We were ready for such nasty things from the neighbors”

Rumors, as you know, are always ahead of official information. Leaks, whether accidental or intentional, somehow spread before the details are known.

Here is the message of the Lithuanian railway transport company LTG Cargo, sent to customers (that is, those who are engaged in sending and receiving goods) on June 17, became the property of the inhabitants of the region faster than it was published on the Web.

People sent messages in different chats, commented, cursed, of course, – said lawyer Denis, a resident of Kaliningrad. “No one knew exactly which product range was banned. And then there’s Friday. In short, many rushed to the shops, to buy essential goods, to stock up for the future, someone with canisters to gas stations, because there was a rumor that the ban would primarily affect oil supplies. In general, confusion.

By evening, Governor Alikhanov published a special video message on his TG channel, urging people not to panic. And he clarified that neither gasoline, nor oil products, nor foodstuffs were included in the block list. There were mainly building materials, cement, metals, and a significant list of goods needed for various industries and construction.

“We were preparing for such nasty things from our neighbors, we built and put into operation a new ferry, together with the Ministry of Transport, we redeployed another dry cargo ship from other seas, which also runs on the Ust-Luga-Baltiysk line, in order to redistribute those prohibited for transit goods, we may need additional vessels, we calculated the maximum volume is seven additional vessels by the end of the year, they are in the Baltic, we have already worked with some companies,” Anton Alikhanov said.

And he added that there are three certain “serious proposals” as a response, they are being discussed – and may affect, among other things, the transport complex of the Baltic states.

We are too “soft”, and everyone is used to it

The source confirms that such a trick of Vilnius was calculated long ago. Moreover, the option was considered that this step would be taken after the adoption of one of the first EU sanctions packages, since Lithuania would clearly not have decided to do this on its own.

“The EU stands behind this decision, and above all Poland, as one of the supporters of even more active pressure on Russia. And the “Kaliningrad factor” is used as a presentational and psychological one, allowing one to assess the reaction of Russia and Belarus in order to probe for the variability of actions. At the same time, the EU, NATO, Warsaw and Vilnius are convinced that Moscow’s reaction will be limited to rhetoric,” said Sergei Markov, director of the Institute for Political Studies.

As confirmation of the argument about the reaction of Moscow, he calls the fact that Russia has been engaged in maritime transit with the help of ferries for several months now.

And as a response, Markov believes, an “economic package” can be used – in the form of a complete ban on Lithuanian transit through Russia, as well as a new round of the migration crisis at the border.

Considering that transit and transport logistics are the main sectors of the economy, this will create serious problems for Vilnius, because they are unlikely to receive help from the EU there: Paris and Berlin believe that EU budget spending on helping the Baltics is already excessive.

Our country, by the way, according to the data at the end of last year, was the main export partner of Lithuania itself – Russia accounted for almost 11 percent of all foreign deliveries of the Baltic Republic. This is more than to Latvia (9.4%), Germany (8.2%) and Poland (7.9%).

“I suppose that there will be many months of swings, attempts at secret negotiations. The bottom line is that they give up these stupid things, otherwise it will end up badly – up to and including nuclear war. From my point of view, we should be much more clear that if the blockade continues, the security of the Kaliningrad region will be ensured by military means. After all, we are constantly accused of being too loose, but in fact, too soft. On the contrary, we need to act tougher,” the expert sums up.

The right to military response is guaranteed by the UN

As for the “military path” – here Russia has a real carte blanche, moreover, guaranteed by the UN.

In fact, having begun the blockade of the Kaliningrad region, Lithuania actually unilaterally denounced the agreement between Russia and the European Union of November 11, 2002, set out in a joint statement by Moscow and Brussels.

In this document – immediately in the very first paragraph – it is indicated that “the parties (the EU and Russia) recognize the unique position of the Kaliningrad region as a part of Russia, separated from the rest of the territory of the Federation by other states.” That is why special conditions are being adopted for the future transit of people and goods between the Kaliningrad region and other regions of Russia.”

And it was precisely this joint statement of ours that was the basis of all subsequent documents, thanks to which Lithuania ended up in the European Union and NATO,” explains Andrei Klimov, a member of the Federation Council. – Thus, when they disavowed the principle itself, now our hands, figuratively speaking, are untied, and we have the right – both moral and legal, in my opinion, to answer as we see fit. And this answer does not have to be symmetrical. Of course, the situation that has developed is difficult to consider otherwise than aggression against the Russian Federation.

And in this case, Klimov clarifies, everyone should familiarize themselves with Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, which guarantees the inalienable right of a state that is a member of the UN to resort to military force in the exercise of the right to self-defense. At the same time, the concept of “aggression” is defined by the resolution of the UN General Assembly No. 3314 of December 14, 1974.

It says this (later, after the terrorist attacks in the United States that occurred on September 11, 2001, the interpretation of the concept was expanded, indicating that those events were aggression, which means that the States, having the right to self-defense, have the right to conduct special operations anywhere):

The use of armed force by a State against the sovereignty, territorial integrity, or political independence of another State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Charter of the United Nations.

Lithuania and the EU, according to Senator Andrey Klimov, did not themselves come up with the story of the blockade, since for Brussels it looks more like political hara-kiri, rather, “transatlantic friends” – the United States – are behind this.

The states, which are ready to fight with Russia “to the last Ukrainian” with the help of the Independent, already understand that Kyiv is getting closer and closer to the line beyond which – complete surrender. Therefore, it is beneficial for them to stretch and undermine the power of our state, to pit it against others, to force it to rush about.

However, America is far away. And Europe – here it is, close. Side by side. And the EU is also aware of this circumstance. Even Poland, with its militantly crazy rhetoric, will not want to be one of the first under Russian missiles.

So, the time has come for decisive steps. And the sooner Russia makes them, the more firmly it will take its place in the new, multipolar world.

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