In Russia, the preparation of a draft State Armaments Program for the period from 2024 to 2033 begins. The first deputy chairman of the Collegium of the Military-Industrial Commission (MIC) of the Russian Federation told Rossiyskaya Gazeta about the principles and prospects of this work. Andrey Elchaninov…
The task of the Military-Industrial Complex Collegium is to link the needs of the Ministry of Defense in the acquisition of both promising and existing weapons with the capabilities of enterprises of the military-industrial complex.
This is a multi-stage work, the finished document will be submitted to the President for approval on July 1, 2023. After that, as practice shows, the program must be adjusted.
The stages of preparing the program are as follows. Until July 1 of this year, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade submits to the Collegium of the MIC a forecast of the financial and economic development of Russia for the period up to 2035.
By September 1 of this year, the Ministry of Defense must draw up a list of R&D work on the creation of new equipment, as well as draw up an application for the supply of existing weapons. Also, by September 1, the Collegium of the MIC will prepare a report to the President of the Russian Federation with an analysis and assessment of security threats until 2053. The result will be an assessment of the economic opportunities of industry against the background of national threats.
A year later, before September 1, 2022, the Military-Industrial Complex Collegium will start “knocking out all the money.” That is, each application for a particular type of weapon in a certain amount will be assigned specific research and production resources – research institutes, design bureaus, factories.
After that, the document must be submitted to the president for approval.
Yelchaninov said that even though not everything is as it would be with the domestic economy, this will not affect the financing of the new program. Its level will not decrease in comparison with previous weapons programs. For the current program 2018-2027, 21.7 trillion rubles were allocated. rubles, the new one is expected to be 21-22 trillion. rubles.
The announcement that by the end of 2023 the share of modern weapons in the army will reach 72.9% was also victorious.
Then the conversation turned to the actions of an “effective manager” Anatoly Serdyukova, who, as chairman of the board of directors of the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), embarked on a vigorous reorganization of the aircraft industry.
The interviewer had many questions about the fate of the corporation. About the merger of the Sukhoi and Mikoyan Design Bureau, about the movement of designers from their homes and technologically equipped places, presumably, to Zhukovsky, about the safety of the world famous brands “Su” and “MiG”, about the merger of “Tupolev”, “Ilyushin” and “Irkut” …
However, Yelchaninov tried to calm him down, saying that everything would be fine. The development strategy of United Aircraft Corporation PJSC was formulated, as a result of which an improvement in the state of affairs in the industry should be expected. And it doesn’t talk about constructors moving.
However, when “effective managers” get down to business, there are unpleasant surprises to be expected. Because one of their main tasks is to improve the economic situation of the reorganized unit by minimizing costs and selling off non-core assets.
There are more than enough deplorable examples. So, in order to optimize costs, a team of minders on the huge floating dock PD-50 was disbanded and the purchase of diesel fuel was canceled. As a result, the dock sank. And almost pulled the aircraft carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov” with him to the bottom.
Non-core assets are not a specific concept. Everyone understands non-profile, depending on their personal experience and understanding. And expect trouble when a person with a wealth of experience in furniture making takes up the business in aviation. The same stands for purging aircraft models at TsAGI can be qualified as redundant. Since this is the Stone Age, now everything can be simulated on computers. And then there are such gigantic costs for archaic equipment.
And with the relocation of the designers, not everything is so obvious, despite Yelchaninov’s statement: “We stand on the fact that this is redundant. Moving a legal entity to another address will not radically change the situation for the better. ” But this contradicts another concept of taking industry out of Moscow, so that it turns into a garden city for millionaires. And there is a significant industry in aviation design bureaus, and it is inevitable. These are various stands, test equipment, and pilot production.
In the end, the sale of the land plots on which the design bureaus are located will bring huge amounts of money “for the development of the industry.” As was the case with the Khrunichev Rocket Center, a significant area of which will be occupied by business offices.
At the same time, the conversation about the fate of the industry is, again, in purely economic terms: “The so-called transition to a single share will potentially provide financial transparency of all operations. This means, to understand the role and place of the United Aircraft Corporation in the world market. Its capitalization, financial rating, and, accordingly, performance as a joint stock company. “
However, they also talked about the technical specifics in the UAC – about the degree of readiness of the two main promising strike vehicles. The representative of the Military-Industrial Complex Collegium expressed his joy that the second stage of the state tests of the Su-57 (with a new engine) is being successful. “It is gratifying that in 2020 deliveries of serial machines to the Russian Aerospace Forces have already begun. A total of 76 vehicles will be delivered, ”he said.
But with regard to the heavy unmanned attack aircraft S-70 “Okhotnik”, it seems that wishful thinking is being passed off as reality. On the one hand, “he is still going through certain stages of his creation and improvement.” Indeed, the machine is very complex – with serious elements of artificial intelligence. Moreover, it was said that it would largely meet the requirements for sixth generation aircraft.
But, on the other hand, “it is planned to start delivering the Hunter to the troops in 2024”. The reality is that, having named this prohibitively optimistic date, both the Ministry of Defense and the OPK will subsequently have to postpone it to a later date. Moreover, blaming the United States for this, which allegedly puts a spoke in the wheel with its sanctions.
All the same, the plans should correlate with the real experience of the domestic aircraft building of the last twenty years, and not with the good intentions of the authorities. And the experience of creating the Su-57 is such that this fighter made its first flight in 2010, and deliveries to the Air Force began in 2020, that is, 10 years later.
And the “Hunter” is still not an ordinary drone with subsonic speed, but a heavy supersonic “full-format” fighter, created in an unmanned modification and having a take-off weight of 25 tons. And its actions are directed not by a ground operator working with a joystick, but by artificial intelligence with the support of the pilot of the leading Su-57 aircraft. So, Okhotnik made its first flight in 2019. It would be extremely naive to expect him to be fully prepared for combat operations five years after the first flight. Speculative, if not.