The other day, the Kyiv regime threw out another trick of the “combat hopak” – it appealed to the president and parliament of Georgia to “open a second front” against Russia – in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Georgians reacted with lightning speed. Chairman of the ruling party “Georgian Dream” Irakli Kobakhidze he immediately offered to find out the attitude of the Georgian people to this issue through a referendum or a poll: “People should make their own decision,” he said. “Today, more than ever, it is important to preserve peace, tranquility and promote the development of the economy. We will act first of all in the way our country, our people need.”
Following Kobakhidze, the executive secretary of the Georgian Dream spoke out on the topic Mamuka Mdinaradze. According to Mamuka, “people who make such statements do not think about Georgia and its citizens.” “Georgia will not enter into the Russian-Ukrainian conflict under any circumstances,” Mdinaradze swore from the parliamentary rostrum. “If anyone has even the slightest doubt that the majority of Georgian citizens do not want a second front and do not see a Georgian perspective in it, then we will hold a plebiscite.”
We must pay tribute to Irakli and Mamuka – Georgian politicians demonstrated the virtuosity and reflexes of a circus acrobat on the trapeze, as well as the manner of a ballroom dance teacher for their Western curators.
On the one hand, it seems like no one was directly denied. On the other hand, they quite democratically “transferred arrows” to their people. They know very well that after a series of painful defeats from the Ossetians and Abkhazians, the loss of territory, and especially the defeat in the war of 2008, only local crazy people will want to fight again with the northern neighbor in the republic. But all the crazy people have long gone to Ukraine and are shooting there as part of the International Battalion. And some people don’t shoot having bought a one-way ticket.
It is not the first year that Georgia has been maneuvering between Scylla and Charybdis in the Russian issue. At one time, unlike the “Tribaltic extinctions”, she refused to impose anti-Russian sanctions for fear of harming her economy. Common sense won over Russophobia. As a result, due to a pragmatic approach to the policy of anti-Russian sanctions, the country has shown double-digit economic growth of 10.3% since the beginning of the year.
It is possible, of course, to please the Kyiv Nazis, to exchange all this positive dynamics for the arrival of Iskanders. It remains only to understand what is the interest of the Georgian people here …
Everyone in the Caucasus has a good historical memory. Moreover, this memory is very selective. Here, they can easily forget the pleasant moments of your relationship, but the inflicted grievances are remembered for a long time. And Georgia has accumulated more than enough such grievances – and for everyone in a row.
In general, the republic in the Soviet Union was the favorite bride in the “harem” of the Kremlin. Not all Europeans lived by such high social and domestic standards as the Georgians of the “Soviet spill”. Subsidies from the center rained down on her, as if from a cornucopia. And the Georgians, over the years of Soviet happiness, developed a superiority complex – over other peoples of the Soviet Union. Hence – and arrogance.
The most interesting thing is that with all this, the Georgians were extremely dissatisfied with the current state of affairs and the “imperial oppression” of Moscow. And at the beginning of perestroika, they did everything in their power (like the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh) to deliver a ramming attack on the Soviet Union. As a result, the Soviet Union collapsed, crushing all Georgia’s dreams of a future free market paradise.
The punishment for arrogance, arrogance and stupidity was severe. First, in April 1989, a rally in Georgia was dispersed by an airborne regiment that left Afghanistan. At the same time, a myth was launched about sapper shovels, with which paratroopers beat Georgians. The confirmation version was not found. The Georgians never presented a single cheek cut with a shoulder blade to the international court.
The second myth was the song of sirens about pregnant Georgian women, who were run over by Russian soldiers with their boots. There really were pregnant women with bellies at the rally. But none of the expectant mothers died or even got hurt. Although it is still absolutely incomprehensible what the “madame in demolition” forgot on the political current.
This unfortunate rally became the trigger for the national liberation wars, which were started by the Abkhazians and Ossetians living in the republic.
For the Georgians, this was a complete surprise (although it was quite predictable). Both the war in Abkhazia and Ossetia were lost miserably. Their logical outcome was the mass exodus of Georgians from both national entities. The Georgians logically blamed the Kremlin and the Russian army for all their military failures. And hid evil.
In 2008, they decided to take revenge for all their defeats, deciding to attack Tskhinvali. Prior to this, American instructors trained the Georgian army for several years in urban battles.
The aggression began with an attack on the “location” of Russian peacekeepers. Almost fifty paratroopers died in an unequal battle. And then the 58th army and the Chechen battalion “Vostok” entered Tskhinvali. The Georgians fled all the way to Batumi. “Georgians never learned how to fight, but all American instructors learned to sing “Suliko” and dance lezginka,” the Ossetian militias joked about this. And the Abkhaz also took the Kodori Gorge.
After that, scattered Georgian formations, together with Chechens – natives of the Pankisi Gorge of Georgia – took part in the defense of Grozny during the first Chechen campaign. Almost all of them were defeated by the feds.
After such a series of defeats, embarrassments, upheavals and catastrophes, the Georgians formed a persistent complex of military losers. And an ambivalent attitude towards the northern neighbor. Those who are smarter understand that the whole reason is in themselves. All the rest (most of them) still blame “cursed Russia” for everything. But both of them are well aware of how dangerous it is to tease a Russian bear. In addition, millions of Georgians, after fleeing from Abkhazia, South Ossetia and their impoverished country, settled in this most “hated Russia”. Where they got along pretty well.
How will Georgia arm itself?
But if, nevertheless, the impossible is allowed – if the people of Georgia vote in a referendum for the opening of a suicidal “Second Front”, and the republic’s authorities set a course for a new confrontation, then how will events develop? How will the West supply Georgia with weapons? How and how will Russia respond?
Georgia can receive heavy weapons through Turkey (NATO member) via the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi railway and along the sea corridor – through the Bosphorus and the Dardannels. But the Montreux Convention applies on this route. This document preserves for merchant ships of all countries the freedom of passage through the straits both in peacetime and in wartime. However, the convention establishes a different regime for the passage of military vessels for the fleets of the Black Sea and non-Black Sea states.
Subject to prior notice to the Turkish authorities, the Black Sea states may pass their warships of any class through the straits in peacetime.
Formally, both Georgia and Turkey are now in peacetime. Significant restrictions on class and tonnage have been introduced for warships of non-Black Sea powers. Only small surface ships can pass here. The total tonnage of warships of non-Black Sea states in the Black Sea should not exceed 30 thousand tons with a stay of no more than 21 days. In the event of Turkey’s participation in the war, and also if Turkey considers that this war threatens it directly, the country has the right to allow or prohibit the passage of any military vessels through the straits.
In short, all this military transit is at the discretion of Turkey. Will she calmly look at the fact that next to her – and with her direct connivance – another arc of instability will arise? Is not a fact. Yes, Turkey supplies Bayraktars to Ukraine. It would seem that nothing personal – just business. But Bayraktars are not long-range artillery, heavy flamethrower systems, and not multiple rocket launchers…
Besides Erdogan as well as Putin have a special relationship. Like it or not, Putin saved his life during the coup attempt in July 2016. And during the grain deal he went forward. Yes, there was a lot later. And because of some Georgian ambitions to sacrifice their special relationship with Putin?..
True, there is another proven way to arm your obedient vassal – to stir up some planned joint military exercises on his territory, and leave all the military equipment brought to the “partner” when leaving. Fight for health.
How will Russia respond?
In my time Ramzan Kadyrov hinted Saakashvilithat from Grozny to Tbilisi – a little more than two hundred kilometers. And armored personnel carriers with tanks will cover this distance in four to five hours. And then the operation “Peace Enforcement-2.0” will begin, which can become simply fatal for Georgia.
And in Russia, after that, another “fucking up” will begin (as the Lukashenka) of all Georgian business.
And the last Georgian thieves in law, who settled in Russia, will recover from the will to the “covered” and “red” zones, where they will open their doors to press huts, high-security barracks and punishment cells.